Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
With the regular season winding down and the postseason just a mere six days away, I figured I’d do what other writers have been doing lately — reveal my awards ballot. I know that I’m not a member of the Pro Basketball Writers Association, which means I do not have a say in who wins which award but I still wanted to engage in this exercise.
Most Valuable Player
| adj. +/- | net +/- | stat. +/- | PER | WARP | Win Shares/48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | +17.58 | +17.3 | +7.40 | 26.0 | 16.5 | .237 |
| LeBron James | +17.39 | +14.6 | +14.13 | 31.1 | 25.3 | .301 |
| Dwyane Wade | +17.00 | +16.0 | +10.77 | 27.9 | 19.8 | .224 |
| Dwight Howard | +19.36 | +9.0 | +7.22 | 24.0 | 18.6 | .222 |
This is what transcendence looks like.
It may be common knowledge to some but it still needs to be stated because it might not be obvious to others, this is LeBron James’ award to lose for the foreseeable future. And like it or not, James is approaching Michael Jordan’s level of dominance when strictly looking at on-court performance. NBA titles notwithstanding, there’s no denying it anymore. What’s scary is that James can still improve, particularly on offense where his shot selection betrays him sometimes. The idea that ‘James’ and ‘improvement’ can be in the same sentence is, somewhat, ridiculous, when you consider the fact that he is already the best player in the world … but it’s true. At this point, the only way James doesn’t win the MVP award every year for the next few years is if voters get bored and choose someone else, he regresses, or he gets hurt. That’s it. It’s possible but highly unlikely that a player, whether it’s Kevin Durant or whoever else, can produce at a similar output to James assuming he maintains his current production. Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade were very close last year but not close enough. All in all, James may not be universally liked but it would be foolish not to appreciate his greatness, at the very least.
There’s a reason why he’s called “King James.”
Rookie of the Year
| adj. +/- | net +/- | stat. +/- | PER | WARP | Win Shares/48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | +4.23 | +3.2 | +0.69 | 15.9 | 4.9 | .071 |
| Tyreke Evans | -5.43 | -6.4 | +2.82 | 18.3 | 6.7 | .099 |
| Brandon Jennings | +1.10 | +3.1 | +1.58 | 14.6 | 4.4 | .076 |
This is an prime example where the randomness of plus/minus stats rear their ugly head. Is Tyreke Evans as bad as his adjusted plus/minus and net plus/minus numbers suggest? No, not at all. At the end of the day, when looking at other linear metrics, it becomes clear that Evans is flat-out superior to his peers and when watching him play, he just looks like a superstar in the making. The same can’t be said for either Curry or Jennings. Not yet, at least.
As for Evans, he has — without a doubt — the tools to be a special player and it’ll be interesting to see him progress in the next few years.
Sixth Man of the Year*
| adj. +/- | net +/- | stat. +/- | PER | WARP | Win Shares/48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Crawford | +3.89 | -1.2 | +0.98 | 18.5 | 4.3 | .141 |
| Jason Terry | +1.56 | -1.0 | +0.55 | 16.6 | 6.6 | .121 |
| Anderson Varejao | +8.61 | +13.2 | +1.95 | 15.9 | 6.4 | .181 |
*I made Manu Ginobili ineligible on my ballot since he became a starter in early March.
Jamal Crawford is probably going to win this award and honestly, it won’t be an egregious choice. Crawford has been a magnificent addition to the Atlanta Hawks and is one of the main reasons why they are a 50-win team for the first time since 1998. However, this is a classic case where people place too much of a premium on scoring when picking a sixth man and not enough on the other aspects of basketball, like defense. There’s no doubt that Anderson Varejao is one of the best defenders in the league but unfortunately, aside from a few votes for Defensive Player of the Year, he’s not going to be properly recognized for his efforts coming off the bench for the Cleveland Cavaliers. A shame.
Defensive Player of the Year
Click here to read an in-depth take on why Howard deserves to win the award for a second consecutive season.
Coach of the Year
| ORtg | DRtg | W-L | Eff. Diff. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Brooks (OKC) | ||||
| 2008-2009 | 102.9 | 109.4 | 23-59 | -6.5 |
| 2009-2010 | 108.1 | 104.2 | 49-31 | +3.9 |
| Larry Brown (CHA) | ||||
| 2008-2009 | 104.7 | 106.1 | 35-47 | -1.4 |
| 2009-2010 | 104.4 | 102.7 | 43-37 | +1.7 |
| Scott Skiles (MIL) | ||||
| 2008-2009 | 106.7 | 107.9 | 34-48 | -1.2 |
| 2009-2010 | 104.6 | 102.8 | 45-35 | +1.8 |
Did you expect the Oklahoma City Thunder to win 50 games this year?
Most Improved Player
| adj. +/- | net +/- | stat. +/- | PER | WARP | Win Shares/48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | ||||||
| 2008-2009 | -2.39 | +0.5 | -1.57 | 12.9 | 0.4 | .086 |
| 2009-2010 | -0.05 | -0.4 | -0.25 | 16.1 | 4.0 | .094 |
| Andrew Bogut | ||||||
| 2008-2009 | +3.70 | +7.5 | +0.25 | 16.2 | 3.3 | .112 |
| 2009-2010 | +4.90 | +9.3 | +3.07 | 20.8 | 11.1 | .162 |
| Kevin Durant | ||||||
| 2008-2009 | -8.62 | -8.9 | +2.32 | 20.8 | 8.6 | .132 |
| 2009-2010 | +17.58 | +17.3 | +7.40 | 26.0 | 16.5 | .237 |
To be frank, Aaron Brooks doesn’t deserve to be on this list and the statistics clearly show that. That isn’t to say that Brooks hasn’t improved, he has. But there are a plethora of other more worthy candidates, like Josh Smith for example, that should receive some publicity but it is what it is. In any case, Durant is the clear winner but it seems like he’s going to get unfairly penalized because he crosses an imaginary skill level threshold in the minds of voters. In other words, Durant is too good to take home the hardware. The point is, improvement is improvement and this year, Durant has improved the most out of any player in the NBA. End of story.
Executive of the Year
John Hammond of the Milwaukee Bucks.
