2009-2010 Draft Evaluation: Quincy Pondexter

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Synergy-fueled player evaluations, with the help of other metrics, are always fun.

Today, Quincy Pondexter.

Yesterday, the Orlando Magic conducted draft workouts with six prospects — Jordan Crawford, Devin Ebanks, Darington Hobson, Quincy Pondexter, Andy Rautins, and Greivis Vasquez. Among that group, Pondexter is an intriguing player that might be available for the Magic with the No. 29 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.

There is a red flag, or two, with Pondexter so let’s get that out of the way. The main problem with Pondexter, at least if he were selected by the Magic, is that he isn’t much of a three-point shooter. If you’re a perimeter player, you have to be able to shoot threes in Orlando’s 4-out/1-in offensive system. The strategy is simple. Head coach Stan Van Gundy wants shooters to spread the floor so Dwight Howard has the optimum amount of room to operate on offense in the paint.

Unfortunately for Pondexter, even though he shot threes with efficiency in his senior season at Washington, the volume of shots is what’s lacking (51 attempts). The good news is, given the bits and pieces of video out there, Pondexter appears to have a great stroke, so he shouldn’t have too many problems extending his range to the NBA three-point line. To be honest, even if Pondexter wasn’t selected by the Magic, it’s a skill he needs to develop if he wants to make a name for himself in the league. No one is expecting anything special from Pondexter, but he certainly has the capabilities of carving out a niche as either a role player or starter in the NBA.



Via Synergy Sports Technology:

Offense
There’s a lot to like about Pondexter’s scoring prowess. Efficiency is the same of the game in the league and fortunately for Pondexter, he was an efficient scorer at Washington. What stands out about Pondexter, more than anything else, is his ability to score in a variety of ways. Pondexter has proven in college that he’s more than capable of creating his own shot — a vital skill to have in the NBA — and doing so efficiently. Pondexter can also score in transition, with his athleticism and body control helping him a great deal in that regard. Pondexter probably won’t post up much in the league, though it’s nice to see it’s something he’s capable of and comfortable doing when necessary.

With all that said, Pondexter’s ability to hit spot-up jumpers is an important skill-set for him to have when evaluating the merits of whether or not he would be a good fit for Orlando. Again, Pondexter is going to need to extend his range but if he can do that, he becomes an ideal player for the Magic at small forward and could become Matt Barnes‘ replacement if push came to shove. Yes, Barnes has a proven resume in the NBA but given Orlando’s payroll situation, this is a classic economic case of cost-benefit. If Smith doesn’t want to penny up for Barnes’ raise, Pondexter could serve as a viable replacement if he’s able to develop.

Given his history of steady improvement at Washington, plus having the opportunity to be coached by Van Gundy, it’s a safe bet that Pondexter has the ability to fully develop as a player. The maturity and desire to get better is there.



Via Synergy Sports Technology:

Defense
On defense, Pondexter is not bad.

Via Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress:

Always exceptionally talented, especially from a physical standpoint, its taken Pondexter time to put all his tools together and develop into a well-rounded basketball player, which he’s without a doubt become at this point. [...] Defensively, Pondexter has continued his great play all season, showing outstanding versatility in man-to-man defense, good fundamentals in the post and on the perimeter, while also showing very good rotational awareness, being a vocal leader for the Huskies’ defense. He’s not the biggest or strongest player you’ll find, as definitely projects as a small forward defensively in the NBA, having nearly ideal physical tools otherwise for that role, but also possessing the versatility to defend multiple positions, along with a high level of focus and effort.

An encouraging report, without a doubt.

One of the best ways for a rookie to crack Van Gundy’s rotation, let alone the starting lineup, is to show a commitment to defense and it seems like Pondexter has that in him. Magic fans have fond memories of then-rookie Courtney Lee usurping Keith Bogans as the starter for Orlando in 2008 and there’s a reason why that happened. Lee made his bones defensively. Yes, Lee had his moments of brilliance on offense but he impressed Van Gundy a great deal with his defensive acumen and the potential is there for Pondexter to do the same. Defense in the NBA is not only about having the physical tools but also displaying the requisite energy and effort to succeed on that end of the floor. Lee had “it” and so does Pondexter, it appears.

Closing thoughts
Looking closer at both players when they were coming out of the draft, Pondexter and Lee share many similarities. Pondexter and Lee play different positions of course, but their experience and skill-set mirror each other. Like Lee, Pondexter was a four-year player in college. Offensively, Pondexter and Lee have the ability to spot up or create off the dribble. Also, Pondexter and Lee each have good body control to finish at the rim. Pondexter’s athletic explosiveness also reminds of Lee.

Given the state of the Magic and since they need talent that can produce right away, Pondexter becomes a logical choice. Pondexter is not a finished product by any means, but in the right system and with the right coach, there’s no reason why he can’t succeed in the league. Van Gundy’s ability to develop players near or at their maximum potential is worth noting. Pondexter brings some unrefined tools to the table, but he has a chance to learn under Van Gundy and grow as a player. In that case, the odds are high that he’ll become a nice addition to Orlando if he were selected by them. Pondexter has all the tools that make him an appealing fit with the Magic.

*points per possession