J.J. Redick's Future is Yet to Be Determined | Magic Basketball

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Jul 15

J.J. Redick’s Future is Yet to Be Determined

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Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Via Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel:

Whether he stays in Orlando or moves on to Chicago, [J.J.] Redick will make $19 million over three seasons, roughly doubling his 2009-2010 salary with the [Orlando] Magic. He knows the only place he’s going to go for certain is the bank.

As a restricted free agent, Redick can entertain contract offers like the one he received from the Bulls. And as a restricted free agent, he can have that same offer sheet matched by the Magic — and they will have to pay him the count and amount.

The Magic’s dilemma, given they delved heavily into the punitive luxury tax, is whether to retain Vince Carter‘s back-up at shooting guard for the price. They have until sometime Friday to decide.

This is it. One more day until “the decision” is made.

Ultimately, J.J. Redick’s future will hinge on a number of factors.

One factor is whether or not the ownership for the Orlando Magic are willing to sign off on a big contract that will push them further into the luxury tax. The Chicago Bulls deliberately front-loaded Redick’s offer sheet for this very reason. The Bulls are banking, more than anything else, on the first-year offer of roughly $7.5 million being too much for the Magic to afford (the dollar amount decreases year-by-year). General manager Otis Smith, however, said that the decision won’t come down to that. Another factor, and perhaps the main one, will depend on if Smith is willing to slightly overpay — in his eyes — to keep Redick in Orlando. Smith openly stated that he was a little surprised by the contract that Redick received.

It appears, then, that if Redick comes back, it’ll be because the front office for the Magic felt that the dollars weren’t that much higher than where they valued him at.

24 comments
Tommy Papas
Tommy Papas

@hulKK
Your argument in entirely flawed. When you have a dominant center like Dwight, one that often draws double teams, you need several shooters around him so when he kicks it out from the post it can be swung around the perimeter to find the open shooter. This is the pinacle of orlando's gameplan. Without Redick they would only have one or two shooters left on the team. THEY HAD TO SIGN HIM.

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@NC Magic Fan

I wouldn't say that Ben is a homer. It's true that Redick was one of the most efficient players in the NBA, but not THE most efficient from the data that I've seen. I'll ask what he saw in Synergy.

As for your question, no, there's no linear metric like that in Synergy. It's more of a database of information, like Basketball-Reference.

NC Magic Fan
NC Magic Fan

@Eddy Rivera
He's just a homer. Thanks for the reply. Out of curiosity, does Synergy create a metric like per of ORtg and DRtg that would have meaning in comparing players?

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@NC Magic Fan

Ben's statement is too vague. I just checked Synergy and I have no clue what criteria he's using to make that assertion.

NC Magic Fan
NC Magic Fan

@Eddy Rivera
Hmmmm! BQR at OPP sited Synergy in claiming JJ was the most efficient player in the Association last year?

Quote:
Most efficient offensive player in the NBA last year. Plays hard. Works hard. Consistent. Reliable. Yeah, guys like Redick are a dime a dozen.

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by Ben Q Rock on Jul 16, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@DRE

Oh, right ... Jordan is a deity, and he should be treated with respect.

Give me a break. It's a little sad that it offends people when Redick and Jordan are in the same sentence, even when they were never being compared to begin with. As for Redick, the decision was never his. It was Otis Smith's choice to re-sign him or not, and he did. Redick didn't play in the past because he didn't earn his minutes. Redick had to work hard, especially on defense, for Van Gundy to give him a chance. It took a few years, but Redick finally has established himself as a valuable member of the Magic.

DRE
DRE

What he was saying was, the words JJ Redick and "Jordan" should "never" be mentioned in the same breath - ever. Bottom line there are worse players being offered a lot more. Some player have specialties, some rebound, some play defense, some just clog the middle, and most importantly some can flat out shoot - doesn't matter if it's high school, college, d-league, or pro -- for that matter it could be a the "Y" ... and finally I am sick of hearing about the "loyalty" thing. For the most part no player or coach stay with the same team forever anymore. Redick doesnt owe anything to Orlando, for most of his career they didn't even play him, the only reason they didn't get rid of him earlier because he could... there goes those words again "flat out shoot" since his high school days in Virginia. In fact his worth may have been even more now if played any in the past, but lets not get carrier away folks - he is what he is... an excellent outside shooter. Yes there are stages... of being outstanding, excellent or good.

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@NC Magic Fan

Those are excellent resources to use, no doubt.

@Will

Yeah, Jones played for the Heat, had a career year in 2005, and that's all that can really be said about him.

@Jack

He wasn't comparing Redick to Jordan at all. He said that Redick's Offensive Rating, which measures the efficiency of a player offensively (points per 100 possessions), this year was surpassed by Jordan twice in his career. It simply means that Redick was a very efficient player on offense.

Think you before you criticize someone next time, and don't belittle people for supporting their opinions with data.

Jack
Jack

You are seriously comparing JJ with MJ? Reason #578 to put down the paperwork from time to time and actually tune into a real game.

Will
Will

Who is Damon Jones? Did he play for the Heat (it sounds familiar). I'm going to go back and read some of the arguments (I admit to scanning. . .)

Okay, read everything. Yeah, I gotta disagree with HulKK. Watching JJ about 74 times this season and then playoffs, it was amazing the little things he did role players are known for. He is very versatile and he has grown so much in the last few years. . .far from a three point shooter. It's even to the point now where I don't even think of him as a three point shooter but just a SG/SF.

NC Magic Fan
NC Magic Fan

@ Eddy - I covet Synergy's data, but the unemployed can't afford such luxurys and try to survive on BasketBall Reference, 82Games and HoopsData.

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@Will

And he's MUCH better than Damon Jones ever was. To compare Redick to Jones is absurd because they're two different players. Jones was nothing more than a standstill shooter. Redick is MUCH MORE than that.

@NC Magic Fan

Defensive Rating is a poor metric to use to quantify a player's defense. It's way too team-dependent and unreliable for individual players.

Other metrics, like net defensive plus/minus, opponent PER, and dMULT do a better job of measuring how good or bad a player is defensively. Synergy's data helps, too.

NC Magic Fan
NC Magic Fan

@Eddy - I stand corrected, but keep in mind that Michael Jordan only had two seasons with a higher Offensive Rating than JJ had last year. But JJ's Defensive Rating of 108 was below the league average of 105 (actually a little under 105).

The offer is a fair value for JJ's "talents". Lets hope he keeps them in Orlando!

Will
Will

I had a long debate with myself about who I wanted to keep more regardless of price between Barnes and JJ and I stuck with JJ. I like his development and I totally agree with Kyle about 40% shooters.

Pat Garrity played forever because even if he couldn't run, he could shoot. Tim Legler was average statistics wise but he was an excellent shooter. Steve Kerr, as he got older, only got better because of his on court intelligence and his smooth stroke. JJ's improvement in almost all areas is a bonus to the shooting and he knows Van Gundy's system well and is a grinder (something the Magic like to specialize in): he gives 100%, will dive for balls, go for charges, drive the lane, chase around screens, etc).

I'd like him and I'd miss him so I hope he stays.

Kyle
Kyle

@hulKK
Any big man in the league helps "make" a shooter. So yes, Dwight is good for JJ but JJ is also good for Dwight by stretching the defense. You can't win in this league with a dominant big man if you don't have shooters around him. It's a 2-way street. I also take exception to characterizing JJ as greedy and Otis as "sticking with him". He was a lottery pick, not some undrafted free agent. A guy like him (gym rat, no locker room or off court issues) doesn't washout of the league in his first 2 seasons so "sticking with him" isn't accurate. He had trade value despite the Magic not playing him. In fact, JJ told Otis to trade him or play him and Otis's response was "no trade, we've got plans for JJ". So they knew they had a valuable asset even when they weren't playing him.

Getting a front-loaded deal isn't a sign of not wanting to be in Orlando. It's a genius business decision. The collective bargaining agreement expires after next season and it looks like a lockout is possible. Who could blame him for getting a front-loaded contract if the owners lockout the players in 2011? It's a win for Redick and the Bulls. Redick maximizes the money he would get before a lockout and the Bulls like it b/c it makes it harder for the Magic to match b/c of the luxury contract. Now the Magic have to decide if they want to keep him or not.

You're wrong when you say "players like JJ won’t last in the league very long". That's bogus. Players who shoot 40% from 3-point range (Redick is right at 40%) have long careers in this league. Every team needs shooters.

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@NC Magic Fan

Correction. Redick was one of the most efficient players in the NBA this year, offset by AVERAGE defense. Redick's defense isn't below-average. And there are other linear metrics out there, aside from PER, that cite Redick as an above-average player. Like statistical plus/minus, for example.

NC Magic Fan
NC Magic Fan

@hulKK - How do you define average? John Hollinger's PER system is as good a way as any because it takes many different variables into consideration. An average NBA player would have a PER of 15.0, JJ's PER you ask? 15.0, perfectly average. He was THE MOST EFFICIENT offensive player in the league last year, offset by below average defense.

Eddy Rivera
Eddy Rivera

@hulKK

Redick is an excellent role player.

The rest of your comment is a bunch of nonsense.

-- Why would Redick pass up a contract from the Chicago Bulls? Your logic that, somehow, Redick is purposely trying to make things difficult for the Orlando Magic to re-sign him is unfounded and to be frank ... it's laughable, because it makes no sense. No offense.
-- Does Redick want to come back? Yes, he does. Redick has said countless times, including to my face when I've interviewed him in the past, that he would like to remain with the Magic. Even if it meant passing up an opportunity to start somewhere else because Redick wants to win, first and foremost.
-- We should have traded him for Lee? Really?
-- You're unabashed insults towards Redick's ability as a player speaks to how uninformed you are about his skill level. The fact that you regard Redick JUST as a three-point shooter either shows me that you're blind or don't want to admit that he's a good player.

Every single linear metric rates Redick as average, overall, BUT this year he rated as one of the most efficient players in the NBA offensively. Redick's TS% and Offensive Rating were near the tops in the league. It's fair to say that Redick is an elite shooter and as a result, an excellent role player because of his ability to complement other stars. Three years at $20 million for a player with Redick's talents is reasonable, in my opinion. The average cost per year is $6.67 million, which is roughly $1 million above the mid-level exception. And as I mentioned below, one of the statisticians I know pegs Redick's value at $6.6 million.

@Jayson

Redick's deal isn't steep OR outlandish.

@NC Magic Fan

The contract that Redick received from the Bulls is fair market value for a player of his skills. I talked to a statistician that works for the NBA -- can't reveal his name -- and he told me that his metrics value Redick at $6.6 million. And I trust this person's opinion, because he's one of the leading quantitative analysts in the field.

@brian

I don't see how you can criticize Redick for taking the deal. It's illogical.

brian
brian

If the average salary for a second tier player (#'s 6-8) is $6 million, Reddick is good for it. The system thing is a bad argument. No team is highering Redick for his explosive dribble penetration or post-up ability. I believe you've got a penetrating scorer at the point for Chicago and a spot-up shooter complements Rose. His ball handling is solid for a two and he's proven to be a better offensive player off the dribble than many expected. You want a guy who can stretch D out to 26 feet on the wing to baseline to open up lanes for Rose.

Reddick and the Bulls are smart to offer the front-load contract. The Magic could afford him; it would require a strong commitment given team salary position, so Redick is being a good business man. And I think everyone sees the intelligence behind the Bulls offer.

hulKK
hulKK

@NC Magic Fan

My mistake, JJ is NOT an average player. He's a player who happens to stand out in a great system that benefits him because he's a 3point shooter. I don't have to give you a thousand reasons why he's NOT and average player but a below-average player. If he signs with the Bulls, after his 3 yrs are up we'll never hear from him again playing in the league.

A guy plays well for about 1 and a half seasons and shows up in a playoff series and now he's an average player who deserves to get paid? Child please! You have to look at why he had so much success and honestly ask your self could he do that on another team, without a Dwight Howard in the middle? NO! I'm OK with a good player who's deserving of a pay day to cash in but JJ isn't that player. I feel like how dare he try to take advantage when the organization never did that to him. I understand that this is a business but if JJ loyalty of returning a favor to the organization should have been to just to accept the money that Orlando was going to pay him. I'm not sure how much but I'm guessing it would have been 15 million for 4 yrs? If so then that's more reasonable. Plus it's a slight raise for what he had been making. MOST IMPORTANTLY its not a front-ended deal that an organization that is in luxury tax would have trouble accepting. No matter what JJ is NOT worth 20 million! If he plays for the bulls next yr then you'll see.

NC Magic Fan
NC Magic Fan

An "average" three year deal for an average NBA player would be $18.4 million (The MLE for 3 years with 8% raises, the MLE by definition is the league average salary)< The only thing exceptional about Chicago's offer is their willingness to pay more upfront to discourage the Magic from matching.

JJ is actually worth $19 million because he is an average player.

Jayson
Jayson

@hulKK
I'm with you in certain respects. I don't think it is as important to keep JJ on the roster. I think that we have a very deep team, and that having such a deep rotation negatively affected us during the playoffs last year. If we keep JJ that would be 10 or 11 guys competing for (and deserving) playing time, depending on how you feel about Anderson.

At the same time, I remember when Pietrus was out with an injury and Carter went down in the opening minutes of a game (I think against the Pacers, but I'm not sure), JJ stepped up and played great. He scored around 25 and played every minute after Carter went down. He played great in the playoffs the last two seasons and he has improved in every aspect of his game. Given the way that the NBA tosses money around, and the cap room that half the league had this offseason, I don't think his deal is outlandish. A bit steep, perhaps. But I think he's worth it. I just don't know that he's worth it to us.

And as far as the greed goes, I disagree. If JJ had a career ending injury tomorrow the Magic would not sign him anyway out of loyalty. The guy should take advantage of every opportunity to make sure that he and his family are as well off as possible just in case. Because you never know. I have no problem with him "taking his talents to Chicago," if they pay him the most. As long as he doesn't have an hour long special where he slaps Orlando in the face on television...

hulKK
hulKK

To be honest, I wouldn't care if JJ leaves the Magic. He's become a VERY important role player for the Magic but I still don't think he's worth 20 million. It makes you think, why would he sign such a difficult contract for the Magic to match given that he knows the organizations positions with salary cap. Does he want to come back? Also, he just started earning his pay the last 2 yrs of his contract. Til then Otis and Stan looked like the village idiots for believing in him. The Orlando Magic have given him more then enough chances to succeed in this league. And you really want to be honest, Dwight made him the average player he is today. Just like Shaq made Damon Jones relevant in Miami back in 06' I understand players want to make as much money as possible before their time is up but JJ knows that a front ended, 20 million dollar deal is not what he deserves. We should have traded him instead of Courtney Lee. Otis was loyal to JJ but now JJ is being greedy in return. Trading Courtney instead of JJ is the only mistake Otis has made so far. Its cool though because with a dominating center like Dwight Howard, players like JJ won't last in the league very long.