Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images
Here’s another installment of the Magic Basketball Mailbag.
What are the chances J.J. provides such consistent production that he no longer becomes “overpaid”?
Medium to high.
People may think that J.J. Redick had the infamous “contract” year when he put up career-high numbers across the board this season. But to be honest, Redick’s new-found success didn’t come out of nowhere. In Redick’s first three years in the NBA, he showed bits and pieces of the excellent role player that he finally became in his fourth season. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy finally developed trust in Redick, most notably in the 2009 NBA Playoffs, that’s when things took off for him. Redick’s confidence soared, knowing that he earned consistent minutes off the bench and wasn’t going to get yanked at the first sign of trouble.
With Vince Carter around for the time being, while the Chris Paul rumors continue to swirl around, Redick will — at minimum — maintain the role he had last year with the Orlando Magic but surely he’ll get some more opportunities to play more. Van Gundy has said that he’d like to see Redick on the floor alongside Carter, given that it’s a combination that the Magic used quite a bit with success against the Boston Celtics in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Redick’s statistics will likely regress to the mean a little bit next season, but there’s no reason why he can’t maintain the same stats either.
After looking at Redick’s numbers this year, nothing seems overly anomalous.
Because of how his contract is structured, Redick will probably be deemed “overpaid” in his first year since the Chicago Bulls front-loaded the offer sheet, thus skewing his value. However, in the second and third years of Redick’s contract, he could become a bargain. The only way that occurs, however, is if Redick is tabbed as the starting shooting guard for the Magic and/or maintains his current level of production or exceeds it. For what it’s worth, a statistician who works with a team in the league told me that his system values Redick at $6.6 million (the figure, itself, is fluid).
Given that Redick will earn $6.5 million in 2012 and $6.0 million in 2013, there’s a chance that he could end up being good value.
What’s your theory about Stan Van Gundy’s decision to not play Anderson more than 11 min vs. Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals? Why Gortat at power forward?
With Ryan Anderson, not sure.
In retrospect, even after taking into account Anderson’s inexperience in the playoffs, his abilities offensively could have been used with the second unit for the Orlando Magic. It’s true that Anderson sometimes has a gunner mentality and isn’t afraid to shoot. However, that aggressiveness would have been a welcomed sight from the reserves. Aside from J.J. Redick, no one else for the Magic made a consistent impact off the bench. It would have been interesting to see how Anderson would have fared against Glen Davis.
As for Marcin Gortat, head coach Stan Van Gundy paired him with Dwight Howard to strengthen the Magic in the defending and rebounding department. The strategy worked, at first. Yet as the series progressed, the pairing became ineffective as Orlando desperately needed players out there that could score or be a threat to put up some points, as well as play with energy. Hence the insertion of Brandon Bass in the rotation in Games 4 and 5 for the Magic. It’s been stated numerous times but the pairing of Gortat and Howard works in spurts, nothing more.
Gortat and Howard had success playing together in Orlando’s regular season win against Boston on January 28, so that’s probably why Van Gundy went ahead and chose to play them together.
With all the rumors going around about Chris Paul wanting in on the Knicks or Magic, who do you think has the bigger chance of landing Paul? Do you think Paul would be a good fit with the Orlando Magic?
This may seem like a biased answer, but the Orlando Magic have a bigger chance at landing Chris Paul simply because they have more assets to offer. Plus, the Magic are in a much better position to win. That’s one of the main reasons why it’s been reported that Orlando has become the preferred choice for Paul.
If Paul were to join the Magic, he would be an excellent fit.
Paul is the dominant perimeter scorer that Orlando desperately needs. And he’d be a phenomenal fit in the Magic’s 4-out/1-in offensive system. Paul would have a field day executing 1/5 pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, finding spot-up shooters on the perimeter like Rashard Lewis, and he can score also. The potential synergy that Paul would have with the Magic would be incredible.
Make no mistake. Jameer Nelson is an All-Star caliber point guard and he is also an excellent fit with Orlando, which is a major reason why it’s hard to replace a player like him in the first place. Nevertheless, Paul is an all-world talent and is one of the few guys in the league that can replace Nelson and improve the Magic at the point guard position. At his best, Paul is a top five player.
Given the amount of talent that Orlando has at their disposal, I don’t see why Paul couldn’t set a new career-high in assists percentage and assists per game.
Paul and the Magic are made for each other.
Was adding Duhon a mistake now that some CP3 rumors are gaining legs?
No, adding Chris Duhon wasn’t a mistake. In any Chris Paul scenario, Jameer Nelson would have to be included in a trade because he is the player that is going to be replaced. Duhon’s role with the Orlando Magic wouldn’t change. Not sure why Magic fans would care if Nelson left, considering that Paul is the best point guard in the NBA. That’s the entire point of acquiring Paul.
Thanks for the questions!
If you have a question for the mailbag, you can reach me at eddy.rivera7 [at] gmail [dot] com