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I like the idea of an underdog team beating all odds, standing in the face of the giant and winning an unprecedented victory. I like teams that share the ball, make the extra pass, aren’t concerned with stats — or anything — but the win. I also love the idea of a team with a few guys you haven’t heard of making a run in the playoffs. It’s why most of us, whether college basketball fans or not, will always watch March Madness. It’s sort of a place where anything could happen.

Now, as an NBA guy, part of me wants to carry over that “anything could happen” mentality to the next level. Part of me wants to know if Philadelphia is possibly for real.

But then reality sets in, and I’m wondering why it hasn’t set in for more people. Folks are going crazy for the Sixers right now, but what is the end game? Will they realistically go further than the second round of the playoffs? Are there those out there who think they will go to the Finals? Maybe I have no earnestness left in my bones, but when it comes down to it, I only care about who can win a championship. It’s why I have such a hard time even watching Magic games this year. It’s not because I hate them, it’s because I have to have the glimmer of hope that a team could make a serious run at a ring. Without that glimmer, it’s pretty hard to enjoy myself.

So when I hear the rabble-rousers stirring things up about how good Philly is, how deep their bench is, how they have the best 6-7-8 guys in the league, and how amazing that is, I tend to think, “Cool. They still probably can’t win a championship.”

Now, for those of you who might still be in “anything could happen” mode. It’s possible but unlikely. I defer to Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim, authors of Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports are Played and Games are Won, to show you what I mean.

A team with no starting all-star on the roster has virtually no chance — precisely, it’s 0.9 percent — of winning the NBA championship. More than 85 percent of NBA finals involve a superstar player and more than 90 percent of NBA titles belong to a team with a superstar. [...]

One first-team all-star on the roster yields a 7.1 percent chance of winning a championship and a 16 percent chance of making it to the finals. A team fortunate to have two first-team all-star players stands a 25 percent chance of winning a championship and a 37 percent chance of making the finals. On the rare occasion when a team was somehow able to attract three first-team all-stars, it won a championship 39 percent of the time and made the finals 77 percent of the time.

The authors aren’t talking about “general” All-Star considerations either. They are talking about first team All-Stars (the book interprets this as a starter), top five MVP picks, or top five salaries. Put differently, the authors aren’t allowing for just any of our favorite players to be labeled All-Stars. This is so you can’t sit back and say, “wait, Iguodola is an All-Star! He’s so good!” He wouldn’t make the cut according to this rubric since he can only be selected as a reserve and wouldn’t be considered a first team All-Star.

So what does all of this mean? Not a whole lot, to be honest. It’s interesting, though, to consider why we get so excited when a team starts playing really well. I for one always look at the end game. When a team starts to heat up, I wonder if they are really championship contenders. For that, we use stats and look to history. In the case of Chicago — they indeed have a first-team All-Star in Derrick Rose. Miami? They have two first-team All-Stars in LeBron and Wade (likely should have been three with Bosh). Hell, even Orlando would have a better chance of winning the championship if they could get into the playoffs.

So forgive me if I don’t jump up and down with you in praise of the Sixers. They are fun to watch, they are young, they are exciting, but their odds of winning a championship are extremely low. You might disagree, but I go by the numbers when I say that, especially when I’m dealing with a team that does not have a first-team All-Star.

Nate Drexler is a contributing writer for Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter.

AP Photo/Mike Carlson

I don’t need to tell you this, but in case you haven’t been paying attention, the Magic pretty much stink right now. Naturally this raises questions. How do you fix it? What’s the root of the problem? Whose fault is it? Where do we go from here?

How about this question.

What on earth is Stan Van Gundy going to do for the rest of this season? If this roster stays the same, Orlando will drop below .500 and not make the playoffs. Note it. It’s really that bad.

Why do I say so? Well, for one thing, last night Orlando was more successful with Von Wafer and Larry Hughes on the floor than any combination of their first seven guys. It’s a disaster. No one can hit shots, and I’m talking about the open shots as well as the contested ones. You’ve got Glen Davis fading away from 15 feet, guys trying to give Dwight the ball seven feet from the basket, everyone and their mother turning the ball over like they have absolutely no clue how to make a strong pass, and Stan Van Gundy about ready to pull out his hair and roll around on the court like a mad man.

To make matters worse, you can see it all over these guys’ faces. Turkoglu is the best example. He looks like he’d be happier hanging out with his family somewhere, eating duck, wearing Italian suits, and laughing about how fun yesteryear was. He has no interest whatsoever in being on a basketball court. I’m going to dare to say it — his time is up. It’s come and gone. I love the guy to death, but no type of shock therapy can revive him from his current state.

Speaking of guys who are probably done, Jameer can’t dribble, and when he tries to dribble, he falls. He also can’t shoot for some reason, so guys don’t really have to guard him at all when he’s in a pick-and-roll. I don’t know why, but you can probably stick a fork in him too. Von Wafer did a better job bringing the ball up the floor against the 76ers than Nelson has this season. So did Larry Hughes.

Ryan Anderson does things well, but not as consistently as anyone wants. He plays decent games and then bad games. Also, he outrebounds Dwight sometimes, which is a crying shame. How is that even possible? Besides, we can’t honestly expect any more than we’re getting from Anderson. He’s a role player and has had a hell of a start, but the law of averages is starting to kick in.

Jason Richardson is nonexistent, and the same goes for Quentin Richardson, I could go on. For now, though, I’m done trolling on individuals. That was just a rant to set up my thesis. Here we go.

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AP Photo/Mike Carlson

After spending Thursday watching Jameer Nelson play, I regret to inform you that I have nothing groundbreaking to report. I don’t have answers, I don’t have a solution, and my prognosis is going to sound obnoxiously simple.

There are not two ways to cut this pie. Jameer shoots out of rhythm, misses layups, turns the ball over, passes with less mustard, and falls over a bunch (what is that all about?) His defense is lazy and uninspired, and his offense is passive and slow.

In a word, Jameer looks absolutely terrible right now, and there isn’t a ton of evidence that he is going to get any better.

Don’t start blowing your fan gaskets just yet. Let me explain. We love to revisit 2009 and use it as the basis of every argument about why the Magic are good, and how they are capable (with a lot of these same guys) of winning a championship.

More frequently than any other player on the current roster, guys love talking about how good Jameer was in 2009. He was aggressive, he scored a ton, he hit his long-twos, and we loved Jameerkat! What if 2009 was an anomaly for Nelson? Anyone ever think of that?

That was really his only standout season after all. In surrounding years he’s marginal at best (or injured).

What if this is the best we’re going to get from Jameer, the guy who once captured our hearts? What if the Dwight saga and the Otis Smith shenanigans were too much for Jameer? What if it weighs on him now and he’s just had enough? What if he’s sad about Dwight leaving? Maybe he doesn’t like the roster anymore. I really don’t know, but Jameer stinks, and the proof is in the pudding.

The point here is not to slam on Jameer. It’s to spur you on to consider the possibility that perhaps your standards (and mine) are too high for Jameer Nelson.

There was a point in the game against Boston where Jameer got to the hole on a nice drive. Less than 30 seconds later he got a great look from the top of the key and buried a triple. You could almost see it in his eye that he was ready to get back in the saddle and start beasting again.

So what did he do? Forced the issue on the ensuing two possessions, missed a layup, and took a terrible pull-up three that bricked miserably.

Look, we all have our bad days, but the problem for Jameer right now is that even when he starts to catch a little bit of fire, he smothers the flame all by himself. This isn’t the sign of a guy going through a rough patch. This is a sign of a guy who is well past his heyday — a guy who is better suited handing the reigns over to a young gun and transforming into a role player off the bench.

Alright, maybe that’s a little harsh. Jameer can still play, but maybe just not at the level you and I think he can. Let’s get used to it together, take the good games and rejoice, take the bad games in expectation, and live in a little place called the chill zone.

Nate Drexler is a contributing writer for Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter.

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Rebounding is one of those things you can thrive at if you put in the work. On the other hand, you could be born with a natural ability to sort of float to wherever the ball seems to come off the rim.

Dwight Howard has both of these things going for him.

It’s well-documented that Dwight works harder than most guys on the court. He logs more minutes, takes more of a beating, and has the supernatural ability to outwork and out-hustle guys who are half his size.

What I noticed, though, in watching some video from some of his more dominant rebounding games this year, is that it’s more than just elbow grease and size that gives Dwight an advantage under the hoop. Dwight has the uncanny ability to be in the right place when the ball clangs off the rim. He dances and floats and positions and schemes and at first you wonder how he was right where he needed to be to get a rebound. But on closer analysis, you realize that there is an art to this thing called rebounding, and Dwight specializes in it.

In watching dozens of Dwight’s rebounds using Synergy Sports Technology, I noticed a few things. First, Dwight doesn’t always box out, because he doesn’t always need to. Second, Dwight’s vision and ability to keep his man, the hoop, and the ball in a perfect triangle is probably his strongest attribute when it comes to defense and rebounding. And finally, Dwight is crafty and does not position himself the same way against every player, nor does he position himself the same way offensively as he does defensively.

Let’s start with the first observation, which is that Dwight doesn’t need to box out a lot of the time. All of these observations sort of flow in and out of each other, so bear with me. Part of the reason that Dwight gets so many rebounds is that his positioning is so good that his opponents recognize when he has position. And frankly, there are times when players will just bail when Dwight is in the paint with his big wide base waiting for the ball to come off the rim. One of the things that makes Dwight so great is that this “position” is simply him being near the basket a lot of the time.

Very few times, especially late in games, do players challenge Dwight when he is under the hoop. In situations where he uses his body more actively, like when he’s facing Andrew Bynum or DeJuan Blair, those players will try to get a hand over the back of Dwight and cause some problems. But when he’s facing weaker opponents like Pau Gasol or Tim Duncan, it’s just a matter of being in the right place. Those players will usually shy away from putting up a fight.

Is it a respect thing? Maybe. But really it’s more of a inevitability factor where guys realize, “What’s the point here? He’s got position.” But that shouldn’t go overlooked. Getting to that position is an art in and of itself.

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AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

With injuries to both stars and role players plaguing the league, I wonder if Orlando is lucky to be close to full strength 13 games into the season. I mean everyone has injuries, right? So what gives? Is Orlando lucky, or are they well coached?

Stan Van Gundy, though working with a less-than-lethal roster, is doing some clever coaching this season. We know all about Van Gundy’s defensive schemes, his offensive genius, and his ability to inspire — but another layer of the Van Gundy onion is seen in his ability to manage minutes on this sub-standard roster.

In this season, more than others in recent history, minute distribution is of the utmost importance, because unless you are named Dwight Howard (or Superman or Captain America), you’ll be hard pressed to log 37-40 minutes per game in this bang-bang season and not pull a hammy (or get trench toe).

So it’s not so surprising that an astute veteran like SVG would make adjustments for the shortened season. In fact, the lowering of minutes is not uncommon league-wide. But what SVG is getting, and perhaps better than other coaches in the league thus far, is productivity and efficiency from unpredictable guys in the context of minute shaving.

Look at Ryan Anderson as a great example. Anderson’s minutes are up from his previous year (he’s close to 30 minutes per game as opposed to 22 or 23) as a starter. Guess what else went up for Anderson? His points, rebounds, and virtually every other stat.

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Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images

I have two very simple observations regarding Hedo Turkoglu at the moment. The first is that he is showing signs of improvement, and the second is that he is not back to 2009 form.

Obviously the first things to take notice of are Turk’s offensive improvements. He’s scoring at a more efficient clip than he has the past two seasons, and is seemingly more comfortable in the offense after his brief but destructive departure from Orlando.

You have to start by looking at his PER, which is currently just under 17, two points above the league average, and several points above where he finished last year. Of course, PER is weighted mostly for offense and doesn’t tell the whole story of a player’s game, but if we’re looking at this number strictly on the basis of improvement, it’s compelling to see that number above his past three seasons (all below 15).

Perhaps a more important sign of improvement is Turk’s shooting percentage from pretty much everywhere on the court. His True Shooting percentage is the highest it’s ever been in his career, which basically confirms that we’re getting a more efficient output from Turk. Granted, he may not be stuffing the stat line like you’d want a fantasy starter to, but efficiency is the name of the game in Orlando. And really, has Turk ever been a stat stuffer? No. That’s not why we like him. We like him because he does things right.

The Magic simply cannot afford empty possessions this season, because aside from Dwight they simply don’t have the star power to fill it up and rely on volume offense to win games. While Stan Van Gundy would like Orlando to be a defense-oriented team, the focus on offense simply needs to be efficiency and execution on each possession. That’s one of the reasons why it is so crucial for guys like Turk to be efficient rather than “high-volume,” or, worse yet, “passive.”

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ORLANDO — You hear guys say that Dwight Howard is a game changer. When he’s in the game, you have to literally change the way you play, change the things you do, and change your approach to the game. I always wondered if this was just something that people say for the sake of saying it. So I took it to the locker room to find out specifically how players think when Dwight is on the court.

Nate Drexler is a contributing writer for Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter.

ORLANDO — People have tagged Derrick Rose with dozens of adjectives in his short career thus far. Some call him explosive, some call him exciting, fast, quick, deadly, incredible. The list goes on. I was curious what his teammates call him. How do they view him? What adjectives do they use to describe him? How about the guys he plays against? How do they view him? How does he view himself? I took it to the locker room to find out.

Nate Drexler is a contributing writer for Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter.

ORLANDO — Rashard Lewis, while probably overpaid and lacking in big moments toward the end of his tenure in Orlando, left a lasting impact on teammates, coaches, and fans in Orlando. Upon his return on Tuesday night in the slaughtering of the Washington Wizards, I was curious if anyone had special Rashard Lewis memories.

So I took it to the locker room to find out exactly what Rashard meant to the Magic basketball organization. Was it a game winning shot in the playoffs? Was it goofy antics in the locker room? Just how is Rashard remembered here in Orlando? Magic Basketball found out.

Nate Drexler is a contributing writer for Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter.

ORLANDO — There is no question that the All-Star Game is huge for any city that gets the privilege of hosting it. Mayor Buddy Dyer projected that over 50,000 visitors would come through Orlando during All-Star Weekend, generating over 100 million dollars in revenue for the city.

But what does this mean for the players? It’s easy to answer that for a guy like Dwight Howard, who has accumulated over seven and a half million All-Star votes in his short career. So I took it to the locker room and found out exactly what the All-Star Game means to the players and those in the Magic organization.

Nate Drexler is a contributing writer for Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter.