Category → Analysis
J.J. Redick’s report card
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
J.J. Redick plays a solid game, a fluid game, and a game that makes us think we are missing him when he is gone. Those around the league like to say he has a “high basketball IQ.” But does he? It seems that sometimes there are players who can give you positive output in almost every statistical category, but still fail to impact the game the way you want them to.
First we have to define basketball IQ. I hear it a lot when a player makes an unexpectedly good decision, or shows in some way that he schooled himself on his opponent. Generally it means preparedness, or the ability to adapt the rhythm of the game no matter what. Moreover, it means thinking ahead, and being one step ahead of your opponent.
At first glance I would say Redick definitely has a high basketball IQ. But how does this translate to statistics? I break it down into four categories: taking smart shots, making smart passes, playing strong defense, and protecting the ball. Superstar or not, if you can keep those four areas of your game on speed dial, you will do more good than harm for your team.
As for taking smart shots, Redick obviously does not struggle with the temptation to throw up circus shots, or go off shooting fadeaway’s from deep. His shot selection is sound, as evidenced by his .589 True Shooting percentage from this season. In fact, only two Magic players have a better True Shooting percentage than Redick—Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson.
Need a current Eastern Conference Finals contender to compare that to? Kyle Korver currently has a True Shooting percentage of .572, and D-Wade is .581. So yes, Redick shoots for a high percentage, and at 17 percent usage, that is exactly what you need out of him.
Redick’s True Shooting percentage puts him among the leagues top 50 players, so he gets an A in this category.
Looking a franchise in the mirror
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
As the Oklahoma City Thunder, scheduled to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals later tonight, continue their quest towards progressing to the Finals, it’s hard not to look at the roster constructed by general manager Sam Presti and begin the process of comparing it to another up-and-coming team from back in the day.
With Kevin Durant, the Thunder have their superstar. Their leader. Their face of the franchise.
At the peak of his powers, Durant is one of the best players in the NBA that surely deserves to be mentioned in the same breathe with LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and others.
But what makes Durant a rare commodity is that he’s a star player that is humble, selfless, and extremely team-oriented in every sense of the term. Durant’s latest national advertising campaign with Gatorade is all you need to know about him. The spotlight may be on Durant but he always goes out of his way to include his teammates, like on this year’s NBA preview cover of Sports Illustrated, making sure they’re recognized as well.
Plus, Durant is more than content playing in Oklahoma City, not seeking the limelight of bigger cities like New York and Los Angeles. Durant wants to play basketball, and doesn’t need to do it in a specific media market
Needless to say, Durant is unlike his attention-seeking peers.
Then there’s Russell Westbrook, a player that has blossomed into a star but is still trying to shape himself on the court. Westbrook isn’t perfect and his detractors will remind him every step of the way, as it seems like he’s learning on the job at 100 miles per hour. But Westbrook’s ascent as one of the best point guards has been one of the more notable developments in the league this season.
Westbrook is the ying to Durant’s yang and even though their collective equilibrium on offense sways wildly from side-to-side every so often, more so on Westbrook’s half, there’s no question that they’ve become a dynamic duo at the tender ages of 22.
Those seeking an example for the potential of a perfect symbiotic relationship between Westbrook and Durant should look no further than Game 7 of the 2011 Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies. Westbrook was the playmaker. Durant was the scorer.
Teams around the NBA would kill to be in the Thunder’s position of possessing two young stars with nearly limitless potential.
The Orlando Magic, more than most franchises, can relate to such being in such an envious position. Once upon a time, the Magic were the darlings of the league in the mid-’90s with two young stars en tow — Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway.
Dwight Howard, fourth quarters, and the truth
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
There once was a man made of brick-and-mortar,
but his role diminished in the 4th quarter.
He will be remembered as an all-time great,
but you’d never guess it from his usage rate.
Today, I stumbled upon a poem I wrote a while ago (yesterday), and it compelled me to explore Dwight Howard’s usage rate in the 4th quarter with the help of StatsCube.
Orlando’s center boasted the NBA’s 19th highest usage rate (possessions used while on floor) during the 2010-2011 regular season, but his rate plummeted in the final period of the game. Some other key statistics indicate Dwight was at his best in the 4th quarter.
Green indicates at least 10% greater than average. Red indicates at least 10% below average.
However, maybe his stats are just a classic case of a reduced usage rate coinciding with more efficient performance? Let’s explore possible explanations for why the MVP candidate’s usage rate decreased in the final frame.
Dwight struggled at the stripe
Dwight averaged 11.2 free throw attempts per 36 minutes in the regular season. In the 4th quarter, his attempts rose to 14.0 per 36 minutes, nearly twice his 1st quarter rate of 7.8.
Why did this happen? Either teams deliberately fouled Dwight late or the Magic went to him more often. Dwight’s relatively low usage rate in the 4th quarter suggests he was fouled more often by design.
The most important part of this debate is his free throw percentage in the 4th quarter. Dwight made 59.6% of his free throws during the season. In the 4th, he made 64% of his freebies, his best rate in any quarter. The big man never broke 60% in quarters 1 through 3.
In fairness, his 4th quarter rate was still a shot below those of his teammates: Hedo Turkoglu (70%), Jameer Nelson (74%), Jason Richardson (78%), and Brandon Bass (80%).
Appreciating Dwight Howard’s greatness
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
It’s hard out here for Orlando Magic fans.
The Magic lost in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs to the Atlanta Hawks.
There’s so much uncertainty surrounding Dwight Howard‘s future.
And general manager Otis Smith‘s continued quest to to find the right combination of players to surround Howard in hopes of being an elite team and championship contender before it’s too late is a difficult one, given that he’s dealing with the nearly unmovable contracts of Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu as well as a shallow talent pool.
To be honest, the Magic are reaching a crossroads as a franchise and there’s not a lot of positive things to talk about right now.
However, it never hurts to look back and appreciate the MVP-caliber season that Dwight Howard had for Orlando, especially in the playoffs where he elevated his level of play to transcendent heights.
Despite being undermined by the lack of consistent contributions from his supporting cast, Howard was a man amongst boys against the Hawks. That description couldn’t be more apt than in Game 1 when Howard had 46 points and 19 rebounds. Howard’s point total was a playoff career-high and it also tied the franchise playoff record for most points scored in a game — Tracy McGrady had 46 points against the Detroit Pistons in a game during the first round of the 2003 NBA Playoffs. The 31 points that Howard scored in the first half was a franchise playoff record for most points scored in a half. Needless to say, Howard had a record-setting night.
Even though the Magic lost Game 1 despite Howard’s herculean efforts, it’s worth taking a look back at his performance because it’s a perfect example of the evolution he’s undertaken on offense. Everyone and their mother talked about Howard working out with Hakeem Olajuwon during the offseason, and Game 1 was an example of that hard work paying off. Rather than track every single basket offensively for Howard, let’s take a look at his first half output.
Recapping Game 6 for the Orlando Magic with Synergy
Game 6
PPP = Points Per Possession
Orlando offense
The spot-up game continued to be a key for Orlando. The Magic made 5-10 attempts on Thursday, but missed all four beyond the arc. In the regular season, Orlando averaged 1.05 PPP, which was the 5th best mark in the league. However, the Magic were held under 1.0 PPP in five of six playoff games and held under 0.5 PPP in three games.
Orlando’s ball handlers used a series low 16 possessions and provided a relatively modest performance in Game 6. They scored 0.81 PPP, which fell slightly below their elite 0.86 PPP rate in the regular season. Hedo Turkoglu didn’t do the Magic any favors in this area as he missed all five of his shot attempts. Jameer Nelson was superb and made 3-4 shots, including two driving layups and one long jumper.
I may have already mentioned this, but Orlando is dominant when they utilize roll men off the pick-and-roll. The Magic posted an absurd 1.6 PPP on Thursday. Stan Van Gundy called for the play four times in the 4th quarter and Dwight provided two dunks in his three attempts. Ryan Anderson’s three ball cut Atlanta’s lead to two with 4:40 left in the game.
The Magic isolated 13.48% of the time in Game 6, a hefty increase from their next highest percentage, 6.67%, in Game 1. Hedo made two of his three isolation three-point attempts, and his first make cut Atlanta’s lead to one in the 2nd half.
The post-up game recorded the lowest PPP of the series in Game 6. Dwight made three of eight shots and Brandon Bass missed his only attempt to leave Orlando with 0.5 PPP.
Jason Richardson propelled the offense to 1.17 PPP running off screens. He scored Orlando’s first bucket of the game after running off a screen set by Dwight Howard. Obviously, J.J. Redick missed a crucial three-point attempt after using a Howard screen at the end of the game.
Orlando defense
Atlanta used nearly 1/5 of their possessions in isolation and didn’t have much to show for it. They scored 0.47 PPP, by far their lowest rate of the series. The Hawks only made 22.2% of their isolation shots (4-18). Naturally, Joe Johnson was the main offender and made three of his 12 attempts.
The Hawks are not a running team and didn’t turn into one on Thursday. Nonetheless, they were effective when they did. On seven possessions, Atlanta posted 1.14 PPP and it was the only time in the series they exceeded 1.00 PPP.
Orlando put the clamps on Atlana’s post-up game in Game 6, and the Hawks scored a paltry 0.57 PPP. Al Horford and Josh Smith combined to shoot 1-7 in these situations.
The spot-up shooting for Atlanta maintained a scintillating rate. The Hawks 11th ranked unit made mincemeat of Orlando’s 5th ranked spot-up defense throughout the entire series, and the final game was no different. The Hawks shot 10-22 overall and made seven of their 14 attempts from downtown. Orlando held opponents to 0.94 PPP in spot-up situations during the regular season, but the Hawks scored 1.04+ in five of six playoff contests.
Recapping Game 5 for the Orlando Magic with Synergy
Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images
Before the playoffs started, I previewed Orlando’s first round matchup using data from Synergy Sports Technology. Last week, we looked at the playoff games in Atlanta. Today, let’s examine the results from the contest in Orlando.
Game 5
PPP = Points Per Possession
Orlando offense
The Magic shot 11-26 beyond the arc and it seemed like a Big Foot sighting. However, it wasn’t too far off their typical production. In the 2010-2011 regular season, Orlando attempted 20+ three-pointers and made 40% or more on 29 different occasions. 29!
J.J. Redick supplied shooting sorcery as he went 6-8 to spark the Magic. He scored two buckets in transition and made the rest as the ball handler in pick-and-roll situations. His jumper over Kirk Hinrich at the end of the first quarter put Orlando up 14 and he went to the line to complete the old fashioned three-point play. The former Blue Devil provided a great boost off the bench without even attempting a shot beyond the arc.
Two days removed from posting 0.44 PPP in spot-up situations, a rejuvenated Magic squad delivered 0.95 PPP. Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Ryan Anderson all made multiple spot-up attempts.
Orlando used possessions in transition more often in Game 5 than the any other playoff game. The team averaged 0.93 PPP and Anderson, Jameer Nelson, and Quentin Richardson all knocked down threes on the run.
All season long, the Magic have made an effort to post-up against Atlanta. In the first four playoff games, they never posted-up fewer than 21 times. On Tuesday, Orlando only went to the move on eight occasions, and Brandon Bass and Jason Richardson were responsible for the only buckets.
Orlando defense
The Hawks went to isolation plays frequently in the previous four games, but in Game 5, Atlanta only isolated 12.6% of the time. The next closest total was 17% of their plays in Game 3. Joe Johnson isolated four times yesterday and each of his attempts came against a different defender.
The Hawks, specifically Jamal Crawford, tore Orlando apart shooting off screens in Games 1 through 4. On Tuesday, the Hawks scored 0.57 PPP and misfired on all four attempts in the 1st quarter.
Orlando was upper echelon at stopping roll men during the regular season, but in the playoffs, Atlanta found success. In Game 5, Atlanta barely went to the play and missed on both of their shots from roll men.
The Magic coxed the Hawks into their most spot-up attempts so far in Game 5. The Hawks chucked it up 26 times and scored 1.04 PPP, their second lowest rate through five games.
Another area Atlanta was terrible in was transition. The Hawks used 13 possessions running, a playoff high, and clanged all five of their three-point attempts.
Game 5 was a reappearance of the 2010 NBA Playoffs. Now, the Magic head to Atlanta, where they haven’t won this season. Let’s hope The Otis Smith 11 can put Dwight Howard on their back again on Thursday and force Game 7.
Hedo Turkoglu’s fall from grace
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
It has been an outright disaster watching Turk clumsily and weakly contribute to the demise of this Orlando Magic team’s playoff life. More than that, though, it’s sad. For Magic fans who remember just two seasons ago when the Turkish Michael Jordan posted decent numbers en route to a championship berth, this is just painful.
Somewhere between the summer of 2009 and April of 2011, Hedo fell from grace, and it’s hard to say exactly when that was. While some evidence points to his tenure in Phoenix, it seems that his demise began the moment he was dealt from Orlando in a sign-and-trade.
Turk’s effective field goal percentage at the moment is .332 percent, a far cry from the .481 percentage he posted in the 2009 playoffs. To make matters worse, he’s only hitting 16.7 percent of his shots from three-point range, and is scoring about half as many points per game as he did in 2009 (7.8 versus 15.8) even after recognizing the fact that he’s playing roughly five minutes less per game this time around.
Even his free throw percentage is at an all-time low of 50 percent for the playoffs.
So the real question is “why?” Why the huge drop off? Why the train wreck of a series so far from an individual standpoint? Why is Turk’s PER for the playoffs 5.2 compared to the 13.2 it was in 2009.
A big part of the Turkoglu equation that does not get mentioned enough is the impact of his hiatus in Phoenix. All non-basketball related hardships aside (moving three times in less than two years), Turk became a different player in Phoenix with an entirely different role. The Suns put up with him as more of a spot up, perimeter player. It changed his game, or at least his approach.
Recapping Games 3 and 4 for the Orlando Magic with Synergy
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Before the playoffs started, I previewed Orlando’s first round matchup using data from Synergy Sports Technology. Last week, we looked at the playoff games in Orlando. Today, let’s examine the results from the contests in Atlanta.
Game 3
PPP = Points Per Possession
Orlando offense
Orlando’s spot-up game finally produced in Game 3. In Games 1 and 2, Orlando never cracked 0.5 PPP in spot-up. In Game 3, it was Orlando’s best play and they obtained 1.4 PPP. The performance far exceeded their season average of 1.05 PPP, which ranked as the 5th best in the NBA.
The ball handler’s in the pick-and-roll were used extensively Game 3, but their production was the worst among their playoff games. Through three post-season games, Orlando’s pick-and-roll PPP hasn’t matched their lofty production in the regular season.
The Magic utilized roll men four times in Game 2 but reverted to little use in Game 3. Orlando only used their most potent play on one occasion, a Hedo Turkoglu lob to Dwight Howard in the 1st quarter.
The post-up game for Orlando was successful for the third straight game. The indomitable force, Dwight Howard, was responsible for all seven of Orlando’s post-up buckets. He made four hook shots over Jason Collins, two with each hand. Brandon Bass and Jason Richardson used the other three attempts.
Orlando only managed a single And 1 attempt for the second straight game. Dwight Howard was fouled by 2003 Magic draft pick Zaza Pachulia with two minutes left in the first half.
Orlando was the best team in the NBA after they secured an offensive rebound in the regular season and they have continued this trend through three playoff games. Orlando averaged 1.25 PPP after offensive rebounds in the first game in Atlanta.
One particularly bad area for Orlando was their percentage on transition three-pointers. The team went 1-6, and Quentin Richardson’s make over Pachulia was the only successful attempt.
Hedo shot 3-11 overall and went 1-6 beyond the arc. Among players with 600 or more attempts, only three active players (Ron Artest, Jason Kidd, Stephen Jackson) have a lower career FG% than Hedo does in the playoffs.
Dwight Howard’s gravitational pull on the court
Photo by Fernando Medina
Dwight Howard is the most valuable player for any team, and if you weren’t convinced in the regular season, take a look at his first two games of the postseason.
Dwight’s game has a gravitational pull to it. We have seen that throughout his career, but he is operating on a whole new level now.
The stats speak for themselves. Through two games, Dwight has posted 79 points and 38 rebounds. Since the merger of the ABA and NBA, he is only the fourth player to accomplish a 75/35 two-game span in the playoffs (the other players were Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar). And only Elgin Baylor in 1961 amassed more points and rebounds in his first two playoff games than Dwight.
These dizzying comparisons only get compounded when you consider that this offensive output is coming from not just a “solid defensive player,” but the three-time Defensive Player of the Year. Put differently, this means that a defensive specialist is doing an offensive specialist’s work. Sure, that’s what we expect from Dwight, but this is otherworldly.
That’s no surprise to Magic fans. It’s everyday conversation to talk about the way he enforces his will in the paint on both sides of the floor, but take a moment to soak in the excellence that we’re seeing from Dwight.
What we are witnessing is a man on a mission. Dwight is taking every element of his game, every characteristic that defines him, and magnifying it despite the underachieving “support” from the rest of the team.
A struggling offense
Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images
Via Peter D. Newmann of ESPN Stats and Information:
The [Orlando] Magic offense has substantially changed from the regular season. Dwight Howard has been a beast. Orlando isn’t making their three-pointers. And their offensive efficiency has suffered.
regular season postseason Pts. per 100 possessions 105.7 98.9 Possessions per 48 minutes 93.5 91.5 Pct. of Pts. from three-pointers 28.4 18.2
