Category → Interviews
MBN Roundtable Discussion: Previewing the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals for the Orlando Magic
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
As seen on ABC’s Sunday Dime.
I gathered writers, the best of the best in the blogosphere, to participate in a roundtable discussion and answer some of the most pertinent questions concerning the Orlando Magic as the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals are set to begin.
So, without further ado, here are the participants:
Kevin Arnovitz, TrueHoop
Kurt Helin, ProBasketballTalk
Matt Moore, Hardwood Paroxysm
Each individual provided a quick breakdown of the series between the Magic and the Boston Celtics, his opinion on the player that has been the most impressive for Orlando in the postseason (up to this point), and more.
_______
With the Orlando Magic having already put the finishing touches on back-to-back sweeps against the Charlotte Bobcats and the Atlanta Hawks in the first two rounds of the playoffs, the question that is invariably being asked is whether or not they are falling in the same trap that tripped up the Cleveland Cavaliers last year? Does that logic apply to the Magic? Why or why not?
Kevin Arnovitz: This logic does not apply to Orlando because the premise defies logic. The notion that a team somehow hurts itself by dominating opponents with brutal efficiency is silly. If Orlando loses in the Eastern Conference Finals, it assuredly won’t be because they were too successful in previous rounds. It will be because they failed to execute their stuff.
Kurt Helin: I don’t think so, because these Magic understand about winning in a way that Cavs team did not. I’m a believer you have to learn to win in the NBA. Orlando went to the Finals last year. This is a team that learned what it took to get there and a painful lesson from the loss in the Final last year about what it takes to be a champion. That there is another level of commitment (plus having a health Jameer Nelson doesn’t hurt). These Magic have come out and taken care of business in a professional way, not letting up.
That Cavaliers team did not lose because of the sweeps in the first two rounds. They lost because they were not the best team, they did not execute as well, they could not get the matchups they liked. These Magic are the best team.
Matt Moore: I think it does. I think that complacency is the worst thing that can happen to a ballclub in the playoffs is complacency. And Orlando’s going to have more of it than any Conference Finalist. Swept through the first and second rounds, never challenged. Drew easy opponents who didn’t match up well. Lots of time off. This is recipe for disaster against a Boston team that’s rolling. The fact that the first games are in Orlando, meaning they have to immediately switch back to high gear because they MUST win their first two games is adding to that. Every team thinks that their dominance is real and valid until it gets blindsided. Then they can’t understand why they ever thought that to begin with.
Interview with Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post, Part III
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
No introduction necessary.
A few days ago, I was able to ask Rock a few questions to preview the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.
_______
One of the major storylines last year, and even this year, was the “what if” scenario, in which people wondered what the 2009 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals would have been like had Kevin Garnett and to a lesser extent, Jameer Nelson, had been healthy. Given that the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics are playing well in the postseason, is there a chance we get to see the series that everyone wanted to see last season with both teams at full strength?
Oh, without question, this series is the one everyone wanted to see last year. And the fact that [Jameer] Nelson is playing out of his damn mind right now only makes it more interesting. Garnett, too, is on a roll, having destroyed the Cavs from the inside (when they put Antawn Jamison on him) and the outside (when they assigned Shaquille O’Neal). This series has a lot of potential even without considering those players’ return to form. But yes, the fact that both teams are at full strength only sweetens the deal.
Interview with Zach Lowe of CelticsHub
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
The Boston Celtics — undoubtedly — have a rich history, a prestigious franchise, and some of the best team blogs in the blogosphere, which are supported by a loyal fanbase that really cares about their C’s. CelticsBlog and Red’s Army are some well-known sites that have been around the block but CelticsHub, which has been around for a little over a year now, has blossomed as a go-to source for daily coverage of the Celtics. CelticsHub is buoyed by a trio of excellent writers — Brendan Jackson, Zach Lowe, and Brian Robb, who combine to provide a rich blend of analysis, commentary, and news.
A few days ago, I was able to ask Lowe a few questions to preview the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.
_______
Is the Boston Celtics’ resurgence, or whatever what you’d like to call it, simply a matter of the team getting healthy and “flipping the switch” or is there another factor that people have been overlooking?
You know, I was skeptical about the possibility that they would flip the switch. But they have, and you can see it in both their defensive intensity and the decline in their turnover rate on offense. Their defense has picked up in just about every way. They held the Cavs, the 2nd-best three-point shooting team in the league, to about 28 percent shooting from deep. They forced about 15.5 turnovers per game. They protected the rim better than they had since Christmas.
Perhaps most importantly, they rebounded about 78.5 percent of Cleveland’s misses–a defensive rebounding rate that would have led the league in the regular season, and a huge jump from Boston’s season-long number.
And on offense, they transformed from one of the most turnover-prone teams in the league to a team that coughed it up at about a league-average rate. The Cavs don’t force a ton of turnovers, but neither do the Magic, so the C’s improved care for the ball should carry over.
As you say, some of this is due to health. Kevin Garnett hasn’t looked this good since he injured his knee in the middle of last season. He averaged 19 points per game on 58 percent shooting against the Cavs and destroyed Antawn Jamison in the post to the point that Mike Brown, who may be fired by the time your readers see this, actually switched Shaq onto KG during Game 6.
Interview with Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post, Part II
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
No introduction necessary.
A few days ago, I was able to ask Rock a few questions to preview the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks.
Do you foresee Jameer Nelson having his way on offense in his matchup with Mike Bibby as he did against Raymond Felton?
I’ll put it this way: [Jameer] Nelson might not stay as hot as he was against Charlotte, but if there’s any defender who can help keep him hot, it’s Mike Bibby. The Hawks switch every screen, and have for years under coach Mike Woodson, which helps hide Bibby’s poor D somewhat. But Nelson likely won’t need any screens to get to where he wants on the floor against Bibby. I expect him to do more driving and less three-point bombing against the Hawks.
Interview with Bret LaGree of Hoopinion
Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images
Hoopinion is known by many around the blogosphere for the past few years as an excellent site that covers the Atlanta Hawks, authored by Bret LaGree. But what people may not know is that LaGree has produced a playwright before, titled “Guyworld” … talk about writing versatility! In any case, if you’re ever in need an educated take or the latest scoop on the Hawks, Hoopinion is the place to go. LaGree drops knowledge, without a doubt.
A few days ago, I was able to ask LaGree a few questions to preview the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks.
_______
Some people have stated that the Atlanta Hawks’ performance in the first round revealed more questions than answers, most notably concerning the team’s inconsistency, head coach Mike Woodson’s coaching acumen, etc. Do you agree or disagree with that statement and why?
Perimeter defense, defensive rebounding, predictability in the half-court (both offensively and defensively) which can be exploited down the stretch of close games, an inability to get to the free throw line, and a lack of depth have all been problems for the Hawks for years but little of that has really taken root in the national consciousness. I suspect that it’s rare that the team who averages the fourth-fewest possessions per game in the league is commonly perceived and frequently described as a devastating transition team.
So, yes, making adjustments isn’t Mike Woodson’s strength (nor does his roster give him a lot of options; granted, some of that is his own doing), and, yes, you’d think that by being a former Larry Brown assistant Woodson would be a good defensive coach but the Hawks have never been a good defensive team under him, and, yes, the Hawks look great when they get out and run but they can’t do that consistently because they don’t rebound enough of the misses they force and, when that happens, they become over-reliant on jump shots created within a half-court system that prizes dribbling over ball and player movement. I don’t think anything that was revealed in the Milwaukee series was news to Hawks fans but the some common misconceptions casual or infrequent viewers of the team were dispelled.
MBN Roundtable Discussion: Previewing the 2010 NBA Playoffs for the Orlando Magic
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
And the grand finale.
I gathered writers, the best of the best in the blogosphere, to participate in a roundtable discussion and answer some of the most pertinent questions concerning the Orlando Magic as the 2010 NBA Playoffs are set to begin.
So, without further ado, here are the participants:
Kevin Arnovitz, TrueHoop
Tom Haberstroh, Hoopdata
Kurt Helin, ProBasketballTalk
Matt Moore, Hardwood Paroxysm
Kevin Pelton, Basketball Prospectus
Each individual provided his opinion on Vince Carter‘s potential impact in the playoffs, how things may shake out if the Magic and the Cleveland Cavaliers meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, and more.
_______
Who is the x-factor for the Orlando Magic in the playoffs?
Kevin Arnovitz: The x-factor, as he’s long been for Orlando, is Rashard Lewis. If Lewis is accurate from the perimeter, effective at exploiting slower defenders with improved dribble game and able to use his size to post up smaller defenders, then he gives the Magic even more flexibility in the half court.
Tom Haberstroh: Matt Barnes. They’ll need him to do the dirty work. Can he neutralize the opponent’s top scorers?
Kurt Helin: I wanted to go with someone a little more exotic here — Matt Barnes, Rashard Lewis, and those guys will need to have key moments and games — but in the end it’s about Jameer Nelson to me. Dwight is going to be Dwight. But nobody else in the East has a second option as good as a healthy Nelson. Maybe nobody outside the Lakers does (Gasol behind Kobe). And in the playoffs, when things get tight, that second guy comes up huge. Nelson is a shooting guard who can score when the offense breaks down and there are 6 seconds left on the shot clock, and you need that in the playoffs.
If Nelson can come up huge in the playoffs. That’ll be the test. When it comes down to Cleveland in the conference finals — and it will — the Magic will need to pick-and-roll them to death because neither Shaq nor Big Z can defend it well consistently. If Nelson is All-Star Nelson, running the P&R as god intended… well, the Great Cleveland LeBron Freak Out will begin earlier than expected.
Matt Moore: The bench, quite honestly. I could drive it down to Matt Barnes or Brandon Bass or Marcin Gortat or Mickael Pietrus or J.J. Redick or Ryan Anderson but that’s the whole point. It could be any one of them. They’re all capable of producing at an insanely high level, and the 10-15 points they can put in (if SVG gives them time) could be the swing. Mickael Pietrus was the dagger in the ECF last year. In the semis, J.J. Redick’s defense on Ray Allen was the tip of the sword. It could be any one of those guys. That’s the trouble with the Magic. There’s simply no way to stop all of them.
Kevin Pelton: At the risk of copying Kelly Dwyer, this has to be Rashard Lewis. Lewis’ ability to stretch the floor was the difference-maker for the Magic in last year’s postseason, and you can trace Boston’s addition of Rasheed Wallace and Cleveland’s move for Antawn Jamison to wanting to have similar presences. Lewis has had a down regular season and Orlando could really use him to step up at both ends of the floor.
Interview with Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
Ben Q. Rock is a man that needs no introduction, at least to Magic fans that frequent the blogosphere, but deserves one. Rock covers the Magic at Orlando Pinstriped Post, my former stomping grounds for over a year, and has done excellent work for the past three years. For instance, Rock has been doing a great job of previewing the first round series between the Orlando Magic and the Charlotte Bobcats the last few days. I highly suggest reading what Rock has written, so far, as it’s about informative as it gets.
Rock promised, when I left OPP, that he’d collaborate with me from time to time so here we are.
A few days ago, I was able to ask Rock a few questions concerning some of the major storylines surrounding the Magic with the 2010 NBA Playoffs starting on Saturday.
_______
I’ve always been of the opinion that Jameer Nelson is the x-factor for the Orlando Magic. When he goes, so go the Magic. But certainly the same thing could be said about Vince Carter, given his talents and what he’s proven to be capable of in a Magic uniform. So, between Nelson or Carter, who must produce and take his game to another level for Orlando to win a championship?
Well, I mean, both Vince [Carter] and Jameer [Nelson] are important, and I’m not sure there’s one who’s more key to Orlando’s title chances than any other. I suppose you could say that Vince is going to end more possessions and thus will have more responsibilities, and thus he’ll have more chances to affect the Magic’s playoffs. Thing is, I feel like he’s more consistent. He’s going to get his 15-to-18 points per night, as he’s done for the last few months. Whereas Jameer’s been more up-and-down.
Given the choice, most opponents would rather limit Carter and take their chances with Nelson firing away, so Jameer has to answer the call there. To me, the biggest thing for Jameer is to cut the one-on-one play. Get into the teeth of the defense, kick the ball out. He has to take enough of those 18-footers in pick-and-roll situations, but he can’t keep settling for them. Vince has to avoid that as well, but you and I both know that Carter’s much more likely to put his head down and draw contact than Nelson is.
So now I’ve talked myself into believing Nelson is more crucial. Fair enough, but it’s not a huge margin.
What makes this discussion easier is that J.J. Redick and Jason Williams have been so reliable off the bench. I trust them more than I did, say, last year’s version of J.J., or Anthony Johnson. If Vince and Jameer don’t have it some nights, I’d be comfortable counting on their backups if I were Stan Van Gundy.
Interview with Brett Hainline of Queen City Hoops
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
When it comes to reading up on everything you should know about the Charlotte Bobcats, there’s only two people you need to read — Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer and Brett Hainline of Queen City Hoops. Bonnell is one of the best beat writers in the NBA and Hainline is not only an excellent writer in the blogosphere but also a bright mind when it comes to the numbers. For instance, Hainline created a Swap Tool, which uses a player’s Offensive and Defensive Ratings to determine how swapping one player out for another would improve a team’s overall performance. If you haven’t toyed around with the tool at QCH, you’re missing out. I digress.
A few days ago, I was able to ask Hainline a few questions to preview the first round series between the Orlando Magic and the Charlotte Bobcats.
_______
One of the major storylines for the Charlotte Bobcats is that this is their first playoff appearance in franchise history. What does that mean, not only for the team but for the city and the fanbase?
It is a degree of validation for the moves made largely by Michael Jordan, in his role as head of basketball operations. 6 years to get to the playoffs would normally be acceptable to a fan base, but because the Hornets were here previously (and were still pretty good when they left), expectations have been different than they are for most new franchises. A winning season and some bonus basketball are a good start to winning the city over, as evidenced by the significant increase in attendance this season.
Interview with Keith Boyarsky and Alex Rucker of the Toronto Raptors, Part II
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
Here’s Part II of my interview (click here to read Part I) with Keith Boyarsky and Alex Rucker, statistical consultants for the Toronto Raptors. In this segment, I go one-on-one with Alex about Hedo Turkoglu.
_______
As Hedo Turkoglu gets older, do you anticipate that his role will change with the Toronto Raptors? Do you see an evolution in his responsibilities over time?
Honestly, I think a lot of the reasons that we were okay with the contract length that we gave him was the fact that his game isn’t really predicated on athleticism. It relies, kind of, heavily on the fact that he’s successful in a lot of things. He plays very intelligently, at least on the offensive end, especially. So, will his role change? I’m sure it will. I don’t think it will erode, if you will, like normal players that rely more on athleticism because the fact is that he’s a long 6’10” small forward who is pretty much always in a [favorable] matchup situation at that position. So, the things that he’s able to do I don’t think depend on quickness, speed, and, kind of, inherited abilities as much as they do with his basketball talent. I think that his decline … obviously everybody declines at some point in their 30′s and I’m sure he will, but I would guess that his decline will be slower in ways that we care about.
Interview with Keith Boyarsky and Alex Rucker of the Toronto Raptors, Part I
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
Hedo Turkoglu has been dominating the headlines the past few days around the blogosphere and not for the right reasons. Whether it’s been his inability to produce at a satisfactory rate vis-à-vis his hefty contract, his indifference to show up and do his best on the job, and a myriad of other things, Turkoglu has gone from being a darling with the Orlando Magic to being a vagabond with the Toronto Raptors in less than a span of 12 months. Ouch.
Rather than try to decipher what makes Turkoglu tick from a psychological standpoint, I wanted to check up on him and see how he’s been performing for the Raptors on the court, not off it. To do that, I interviewed Keith Boyarsky and Alex Rucker, two individuals that work as consultants for Toronto and perform quantitative data analysis. They’re the guys that operate behind the scenes and crunch the numbers for, most notably, Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo and head coach Jay Triano.
Keith and Alex dish the goods on Turkoglu for me, providing a unique perspective on a player that has impacted two franchises in different ways.
_______
It’s ironic that, a few weeks after the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference took place, I’m conducting an interview with you and Keith. The casual NBA fan may not be aware of this but more statistical analysts — the diverse representation at the Sloan Conference, which included front office personnel from a bevy of NBA teams confirmed this — are being hired to serve a role with their respective franchises. Usually it’s a consulting gig but it differs from team to team, of course. Could you briefly explain how both of you joined the Toronto Raptors as consultants?
Alex: I’ve known Jay Triano for many years, having worked with him briefly at Simon Fraser University. When he became the head coach of the Toronto Raptors, he was eager to take advantage of the quantitative analysis that was becoming increasingly prevalent at the pro level. He talked to more than one analyst last summer to see what was out there and get a sense of how it could help him and his coaching staff. He asked me to put together a presentation for his coaching staff and I was thrilled to be in a position to help him out. I’d been working closely with a colleague, Keith Boyarsky, doing what I felt was some really useful and actionable basketball analysis. We took a close look at what Toronto did last year. The Raptors brought us up to Toronto for a series of meetings with coaches and management and it took off from there.
Keith: As a big NBA fan with a background in engineering and computer science, I had been working for 4 or 5 years on the side, developing a suite of software tools to take advantage of new data sources. I met Alex through a friend of a friend at Summer League a few years ago, and we started discussing the various things we had worked on, or were working on, in terms of NBA analysis. It was clear that, while we were approaching things from different angles, we had a similar overall view of the game. When Alex talked with Jay last summer, we learned that the Raptors were interested in the sort of stuff we were doing, and our relationship with the team developed from there.
