- J.J. Redick: “I’d be lying to say that I don’t want to start at some point. I’m sure every NBA player feels that way. I value my role on this team, and obviously the [Orlando] Magic value my role on this team. I take a lot of pride in contributing. We won 59 games last year and were two games away from a return trip to The Finals. So, I think my focus this summer is most definitely on this coming season. I don’t know what is going to happen with Vince [Carter]. I don’t know who they’re going to bring in. [General manager] Otis [Smith] seems like he’s always got some stuff up his sleeve. Right now, I’m just focused on getting better and kind of helping the team move forward.”
- With general manager Otis Smith and the Chris Paul rumors, never say never.
- Click here to watch the video of Redick’s press conference, which took place today.
- Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “During Summer League play, I spoke to a source familiar with the Magic’s thinking who said that [Stanley] Robinson is “deficient” in every part of the game that doesn’t involve athleticism, which he said would make it “tough” to play successfully under Magic coach Stan Van Gundy. There’s also the issue of fit. Robinson would thrive in an open-court system which maximizes his gifts, as he did at Connecticut, where transition opportunities accounted for nearly one-fifth of his possession usage during his senior year, and he produced 1.275 points per possession on 71.2% shooting, according to Synergy Sports Technology. But Orlando isn’t a running team. Synergy shows that the Magic ranked 23rd in transition-generated offense last season, and Tom Haberstroh of Hoopdata tells me the league average is 12.5%. Now, not to be too reductive, but if Robinson’s best asset is his ability to get out in transition, but the Magic do that only a little more than once every 10 trips, what is he to do for the other nine possessions?”
- Is Matt Barnes going to sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers?
- Sekou Smith of the NBA’s Hang Time blog has the Magic listed at No. 2 in the Eastern Conference’s pecking order behind the Miami Heat: “We know Dwight Howard probably won’t agree with where his team has been placed in our revamped Eastern Conference food chain. But the Magic didn’t make a major personnel move this summer that assists them in their pursuit of the Florida state title hunt. Matching an offer sheet for J.J. Redick is great for continuity, but doesn’t compare to what the folks in Miami pulled off. (Though we do like the addition of Quentin Richardson in place of Matt Barnes.) The Magic will remain a power as long as Howard wears the uniform. But there were some serious flaws exposed by the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. Neither Vince Carter nor Rashard Lewis has proved capable of taking over games in the postseason, leaving only Howard and Jameer Nelson to serve as true game changers for Stan Van Gundy‘s bunch. The Magic never could decide what to do with Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass, two players that might have helped more against the Celtics had they been utilized sooner and more strategically. The Magic’s resolve will no doubt be fueled by doubters who assume they have been passed up by not only the Heat but also the Celtics. That’s a good thing, because they’ll need an added edge to fight for that top spot.”
- Fran Blinebury of NBA.com: “With the Boston Celtics getting old enough to practically creak, with LeBron struggling to find the right combination of teammates and his own will in Cleveland, with the Lakers bench continuing to be a spot that makes them vulnerable, it stood to reason that the Magic believed their window to claim a championship or two or three for most of the next decade was wide open. Then Pat Riley made his move to slam that window shut on their fingers. Even in the middle of another sultry Florida summer, you can feel the chill in the Orlando air. This is the season when the Magic will move into the spanking new $380 million Amway Center and had expected to christen their homes with bubbly title talk. Now they suddenly get elbowed aside as the No. 2 team in the neighborhood. One minute Orlando is going into the season as the likely No. 1 contender it the Eastern Conference and the next everyone is wondering if they’ll have what it takes to hold off Miami to merely win the Southeast Division title.”
Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The APBRmetrics community is always trying to find better and more effective ways to quantify a player’s value as accurately as possible. Every linear metric has its flaws, whether it’s PER, adjusted plus/minus, or whatever else, but using them all in conjunction with each other is an excellent way of lessening some of the biases that are inherent in their formulas and painting an accurate picture of how good or bad a player is. And now, courtesy of DSMok1, we have another advanced statistic that can be thrown into the pot. Say hello to advanced statistical plus/minus.
It’s important to note that this metric isn’t the end-all, be-all.
|2009-2010 regular season|
Click here to see the full spreadsheet of the 2009-2010 regular season. Enjoy.
AP Photo/J Pat Carter
After general manager Otis Smith matched the Chicago Bulls’ offer sheet and re-signed J.J. Redick on Friday, the roster for the Orlando Magic is eerily similar to the one that lost to the Boston Celtics in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. New additions like Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson look to carve out their niches in the Magic’s rotation, while rookies Daniel Orton and maybe Stanley Robinson hope to develop behind the scenes. Barring an unforeseen trade, one of the major storylines heading into the 2010-2011 season for Orlando will be a familiar one.
Who will start at small forward for the Magic?
Last year around this time, Matt Barnes signed as a free agent with Orlando and looked to compete for the starting small forward position with Mickael Pietrus. Pietrus, more or less, won the job at the start of the regular season because he was already familiar with head coach Stan Van Gundy‘s plays and schemes. However, many felt that Pietrus was better served coming off the bench for the Magic after he thrived in a sixth man role in the 2009 NBA Playoffs. As a few months passed, Barnes was inserted into the starting lineup because he, among other things, complemented the four All-Stars much better than Pietrus did and things took off for Orlando.
Replace Barnes with Richardson and you have a similar story heading into training camp for the Magic like last off-season. Richardson signed with Orlando because he was going to get a chance to start at small forward.
Should Richardson start?
- Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “So, what will the Orlando Magic do now that they’ve retained J.J. Redick? They’ll add a third point guard to back up starter Jameer Nelson and Chris Duhon. The Magic roster now consists of 12 players. The league-mandated minimum is 13, and the Magic want a third point guard. Magic General Manager Otis Smith indicated that Jason Williams remains in the mix. […] The Magic can use only one of two salary-cap exceptions to sign free agents other than Williams or Anthony Johnson. The biannual exception of up to $2.08 million for next season is available, but it seems unlikely the Magic would spend that kind of money for a third-string player. The Magic instead would use the minimum-salary exception, which tops out at $1.35 million next season for players who have at least 10 years of NBA experience.”
- Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “[Stan] Van Gundy said Redick again will go into training camp as the back-up to Vince Carter, but the coach added that he will look at playing the two together more. Carter would shift to the small-forward spot on those work shifts. Van Gundy said that Redick felt confident the Magic would retain him, but Redick wondered if the club would absorb the huge luxury-tax hit on his deal. If the Magic remain in the tax the next three seasons — a strong likelihood unless they make moves to pare payroll — they could be paying upwards to $30 million for Redick’s contract.”
- The roster for the Orlando Magic is, more or less, accounted for.
- The Magic are looking for a third point guard in free agency. Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus lays out some options.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Here’s another installment of the Magic Basketball Mailbag.
Somehow we need to get a sign and trade for Richard Jefferson. I just don’t know who to trade for him. We need a slasher and someone to get to the hole since Vince won’t do it. The Celtics beat us because they were able to stay home on their own guys. No help on Dwight. Nobody was ever open to shoot it. If we swung to Jefferson at least he can penetrate. Do you agree?
Unfortunately, I don’t.
If you’re looking for a wing player that is a slasher and can get to the hole, Richard Jefferson is not that guy. For a time, Jefferson was that guy but not any longer. Since 2008, when Jefferson was a member of the New Jersey Nets, his attempts at the rim and free-throw line have decreased steadily. It’s worth pointing out that Jefferson, since being traded from the Nets, hasn’t been playing in offensive systems that perfectly compliments his strengths. Still, these numbers are red flags.
|At Rim FGM-A||At Rim FG%||FTM-A||FT%|
|2007-2008 (55 games)||3.6 – 5.9||.600||6.6 – 8.3||79.8%|
|2008-2009 (82 games)||2.3 – 4.0||.570||5.1 – 6.3||80.5%|
|2009-2010 (81 games)||2.1 – 3.1||.677||2.6 – 3.5||73.5%|
Another issue with Jefferson, and this was prevalent when he was with the San Antonio Spurs this year, is his inability to spread the floor effectively. The Spurs and the Orlando Magic run similar offenses, and one of the reasons that Jefferson was a poor fit was because he didn’t make or even take many threes. More often than not, Jefferson would step in from the three-point line, attempt a long two, and hurt San Antonio’s spacing offensively. It’d be no different with the Magic.
Don’t believe me? Click here.
- Tania Ganguli of the Orlando Sentinel: “That window of opportunity for winning a championship hasn’t closed yet, as far as the Orlando Magic are concerned and it’s part of the reason they chose to keep J.J. Redick, matching an offer that is likely to cost them more than $30 million in salary and luxury taxes over the length of the contract. Magic General Manager Otis Smith spoke today about matching Redick’s offer, saying Redick’s main boon is that he has a winner’s “DNA.” […] Smith said the discussion about whether or not to match the Chicago Bulls’ three-year, $19-million offer involved some debate money-wise. Because Redick was a restricted free agent, the Magic had seven days to match the offer. The Magic were already at least $14 million over the luxury tax threshold for next season before matching Redick’s offer worth somewhere around $7.5 to $8 million in its first year.”
- Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “If anyone had any doubts about Matt Barnes’ future with the Orlando Magic, those doubts were erased last night with the news that the Magic were re-signing J.J. Redick. Now, it’s crystal clear that the Magic will go with Mickael Pietrus and Quentin Richardson at the small-forward spot, with the possibility that second-round pick Stanley Robinson can make the regular-season roster if he performs well at training camp. General Manager Otis Smith said this morning that he has not offered Barnes a contract this offseason. This confirms what Barnes and his agent, Aaron Goodwin, have been saying over the last couple of weeks.”
- Matt Barnes delays his announcement.
- General manager Otis Smith is not a fan of text messaging.
- J.J. Redick is flattered with his new contract.
- Dan Savage of OrlandoMagic.com: “After years of struggling with his consistency, along with battling to find a solid place in Orlando’s rotation, Redick delivered a breakout performance in the Magic’s 2009 Eastern Conference Semifinals series against the Boston Celtics. He continued to build on that effort during Orlando’s 2009-10 regular season campaign, averaging career highs in points (9.6 ppg.), assists (1.9 apg.) and minutes (22 mpg.). Always known for his ability to shoot the ball, the 26 year old has now also developed into a serviceable defender against perimeter-oriented shooting guards. He flashed his ability to contain Ray Allen in that 2009 series and reinforced that perception throughout last season.”
- Fans come to see Dwight Howard play: “The Magic finished 5th in road attendance last season, drawing an average of 27,838 fans a game. Attribute that, as well as Orlando’s recent title pushes, to Howard. There’s no guarantee this team ever makes it back to the Finals. Most fans won’t care. They just want to see the premiere big man athlete continue to splatter blocked shots all over the backboards and front rows across the league.”
- The last item on the agenda for the Magic is to sign a third point guard.
- Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post has some notes from Smith’s presser.
- How does Orlando stack up to the Los Angeles Lakers? Brian Kamenetzky of the Land O’ Lakers blog chimes in: “Stan Van Gundy’s crew has won 59 games in consecutive seasons, including a trip to the Finals in ’09. This summer, they’ve swapped Jason Williams and Matt Barnes for Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson. A wash, basically, but by matching Chicago’s offer sheet on J.J. Redick, the Magic certainly aren’t setting themselves up to slide this season. With Dwight Howard they have a dominant player in the middle, accompanied by a great guard in Jameer Nelson and strong players up and down the roster.”
- Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus examines the dangers of long-term contracts: “Looking over all the data, it appears the sweet spot for free-agent contracts is about three years. Past this, the risk escalates quickly. Predicting performance next season is hard enough, so trying to figure out what a player will be like five years down the line (or even whether they’ll be healthy then) is nigh impossible. For stars, that risk is an acceptable part of acquiring an elite talent. Among the NBA’s middle class, it’s difficult to justify going much more than three years. A four-year deal can be justified because the expiring contract becomes valuable as a trade asset the last year, but five-year deals to marginal talents simply aren’t worth it.”
- By Pelton’s logic, the Magic did well by re-signing Redick to a three-year deal and signing Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson to four-year deals. The length of the contracts are just right.
Via Orlando Magic:
The Orlando Magic have exercised its right of first refusal and retained restricted free agent guard J.J. Redick, General Manager Otis Smith announced today. Per team policy, terms of the deal are not disclosed. Orlando had seven days to match an offer sheet made to Redick by Chicago on July 9.
“J.J. (Redick) is a valuable part of our organization, both on the court and in our community,” said Smith. “He has worked extremely hard during his four seasons with us and improved every year. We’re happy that J.J. will be back to help us reach our ultimate goal.”
Redick (#7, 6’4”, 190, 6/24/84) played in all 82 games last season with Orlando, averaging a career-high 9.6 ppg., 1.9 rpg. and 1.9 apg. in 22.0 minpg. He made nine starts, averaging 13.0 ppg., 2.9 apg. and 2.7 rpg. in 35.1 minpg. during that span. Redick led the Magic in both three-point shooting (.405, 111-274) and free throw shooting (.860, 191-222), ranking 17th in the NBA in both categories. He also appeared in all 14 playoff games, averaging 7.5 ppg., 1.7 rpg. and 1.4 apg. in 19.2 minpg.
- Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “If I were a betting man, I’d wager that the [Orlando] Magic will match the Chicago Bulls’ offer sheet and keep shooting guard J.J. Redick. The club has until Friday to match the Chicago Bulls’ three-year, $19-million offer sheet for the restricted free agent. Things could change in the next 24 or so hours, but it’s unlikely. General Manager Otis Smith is fielding trade offers from other teams for other Magic players and likely another shooting guard to replace Redick, but the climate in the Magic organization does not suggest Smith is letting go of Redick unless he lands a sweet deal.”
- Tomorrow, Matt Barnes makes an announcement.
- Tim Povtak of NBA FanHouse: “The Orlando Magic have decided to retain restricted free agent guard J.J. Redick, matching the three-year, $19 million offer sheet he received from the Chicago Bulls last week. The Magic will make their intention known Friday – the last possible day — but NBA sources familiar with the front-office thinking of the Magic confirmed their decision Thursday afternoon. […] The offer sheet from the Bulls includes a first-year salary of $7 million, which will cost the Magic $14 million next season because of the punitive, dollar-for-dollar luxury tax threshold the Magic will exceed.”
- Eric Freeman of The Baseline comments on a dormant rivalry between the Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat that is ready to explode.
- Daniel Marks of Dime Magazine lists Rashard Lewis‘ contract as the 10th-worst in the NBA. Same old song and dance: “Rashard Lewis is the classic case of a general manager overpaying for a need. The Magic needed a shooter and second gun to take some pressure off Dwight Howard so they vastly overpaid him to be their number two guy. Lewis played well his first two years in Orlando, and is a solid player, but he doesn’t play defense and is not a true power forward. His playoff performance, or lack thereof, is most likely a sign of things to come for Lewis who still has three years left on his deal.”
- Unfortunately for Marks, he’s incorrect in saying that Lewis doesn’t play defense — he does. By the way, what’s a true power forward? Last time I checked, power forwards in the league have different skills and strengths. Lastly, Lewis’ performed fine in the playoffs until he played against the Boston Celtics and was defended by Kevin Garnett. And Garnett is one of the best defenders in NBA history.
- Are the Magic building a squad to beat the Heat?
Via the Orlando Magic:
The Orlando Magic’s Dwight Howard, along with NBA players and African natives DeSagana Diop (Senegal), Luc Mbah a Moute (Cameroon) and Hasheem Thabeet (Tanzania) will headline Basketball without Borders Africa, it was announced today by the National Basketball Association (NBA), the International Basketball Federation (FIBA) and the Senegalese Basketball Federation (SBF). The African edition of the NBA and FIBA’s global basketball development and community outreach program will be held in Dakar, Senegal for the first time, Aug. 5- 8.
Uniting the top 60 young basketball players from the continent, the camp will provide basketball coaching while encouraging positive social change in the areas of education, health and well being.
“It is of particular significance that Basketball without Borders Africa is being held here in Dakar for the first time,” said Amadou Gallo Fall, Vice President of Development for the NBA in Africa, and a native of Senegal. “With the help of current and former NBA and FIBA players, coaches and partners, Basketball without Borders is a perfect vehicle to draw attention to important social issues while allowing us to coach and mentor the top youth basketball talent from across the African continent.”
The 60 top youth players 19 and under as selected by the NBA, FIBA and participating federations will come together for the four-day camp to train under NBA players and coaches, and compete against their peers. Campers will be divided into teams independent of race, religion or nationality to promote friendship and diversity.