• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “The next time the [Orlando] Magic see the Denver Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony will be wearing a New York Knicks uniform — or so the story goes. Could he be wearing a Magic jersey? Or another team’s gear? [...] Anthony faces the Magic tonight and likely won’t be with the Nuggets for the March rematch in Orlando. Or maybe he will. Approach any trade rumor with care. The Magic haven’t been in the rumor mill for ‘Melo’s services. But I’ve talked to their execs, and they aren’t backing away from trying to swing a deal, whether it’s for Melo, Chris Paul, Tayshaun Prince, Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Fill-In-The-Blank. Sam Smith of the Chicago Bulls’ website just tossed out a trade scenario involving Memphis and Orlando — involving Vince Carter and Brandon Bass and Zach Randolph and O.J. Mayo. Trade talk is bound to pick up because this summer’s players signed as free agents can be dealt starting Wednesday.”
• Head coach Stan Van Gundy jokingly suggests the Denver Nuggets should sit Carmelo Anthony in tonight’s game: “Well, I’m just concerned about his knee injury for the long term, and I really think more rest is what’s needed for him.”
• Brandon Bass will start at power forward against the Nuggets.
• Chauncey Billups may not play against the Orlando Magic later this evening.
• Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “The point here is that, from at least one standpoint, the current Magic team that seems like such a letdown to many of its fans is actually right on track with the 2008/09 squad, which is so beloved. Scoring margin isn’t everything, of course. I realize that. But the 2009 team went from “pretty good” to “freaking fantastic” once its three-point shooting corrected itself and the defense took it to antother gear, contending for a championship despite subbing the production of two mediocre point guards (Rafer Alston and Anthony Johnson) for one All-Star one (Jameer Nelson) in mid-February. There’s no reason why the current team can’t make a similar advance as the season goes along.”
• Britt Robson of Sports Illustrated: “A team with the best defender on the planet always merits respect. But with more than one-quarter of the season gone, a trademark of the Magic’s past success, three-point accuracy, is still missing. In the last six games, Orlando hasn’t shot better than 36 percent from behind the arc, and it ranks 17th overall at 35.5 percent. Then there is the team’s recent post-intermission blues: The Magic have outscored their opponents in just one of the past 10 second-half quarters over the last five games. After a relatively light week — at Denver on Tuesday and home against the Sixers on Saturday — the schedule ratchets up with a trip to Atlanta and home games against Dallas, San Antonio and Boston.”
• No more dunk contests for Dwight Howard.
• Zach Lowe of The Point Forward kicks around trade ideas: “The wing is crowded in Orlando, with [Quentin] Richardson, Vince Carter, [J.J.] Redick and Mickael Pietrus all fighting for minutes (and Rashard Lewis getting more time at small forward), and it wouldn’t shock me if the Magic somehow addressed the redundancy.”
• Eric Freeman of Ball Don’t Lie: “Howard’s path from dunk contest fun to retirement is a familiar one for superstars. Players like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Vince Carter stopped participating in dunk contests to focus on being serious. It didn’t work for all of them — VC will always be mostly fondly remembered for his 2000 victory in Oakland — but the best players around trade in dunk contest hardware for championship rings.”
• Chris Tomasson of NBA FanHouse opines on Rashard Lewis’ struggles offensively this year.

Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

When general manager Otis Smith signed Chris Duhon as a free agent in the offseason, the expectation was that the Orlando Magic would seal up the back-up point guard role for the next few years. Previous back-ups like Anthony Johnson and Jason Williams served their roles effectively for the Magic, but each of them were in the twilight of their careers and couldn’t be counted on long-term playing behind Jameer Nelson on the depth chart.

Hence the addition of Duhon, who is 28 and in the prime of his career. One problem.

Duhon hasn’t been playing very well for Orlando since the start of the regular season.

To be frank, Duhon’s numbers are atrocious and it remains to be seen whether or not head coach Stan Van Gundy sticks with him in the rotation. It’s tricky because the Magic signed Duhon as a free agent, hence there is an investment in him that needs to be seen all the way through. But at the same time, Van Gundy has to do what’s best for the team. If a player isn’t producing, a change must be made at some point in time.

So what’s wrong with Duhon? Well, almost everything.

Read more…

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

So far, Jameer Nelson has been having a good year for the Orlando Magic.

Fully healthy and springboarding off a strong performance in the 2010 NBA Playoffs, Nelson is back to playing like an All-Star point guard during the regular season. A big reason that the Magic rank fourth in the NBA in efficiency differential (+8.0) and second in point differential (+7.9) is because of Nelson’s stellar production offensively. It may surprise people, however, that Nelson is doing more to help Orlando on offense with his passing than at any other point in his career.

Is this trend sustainable?

It remains to be seen. But let’s go back in time and offer a refresher course on how Nelson emerged as one of the better point guards in the league for the Magic.

How about January 16, 2009 against the Los Angeles Lakers?

There are many Magic fans that remember that date vividly because it marked not only the “official” arrival of Orlando as an elite team and championship contender, but it was Nelson’s coming out party as a clutch performer and emergence as an All-Star caliber player in front of a nationally televised audience. Yes, Nelson had big games against the likes of the San Antonio Spurs and other good teams earlier in that year but this was the Lakers. At Staples Center. In primetime.

It was something more than just a regular season game for the Magic.

And for Nelson, it was his christening.

For the evening, Nelson had 28 points and eight assists while all of his damage came in the fourth quarter when the game was going back-and-forth between Orlando and Los Angeles in a matchup of two heavyweights.

The traits that people have been accustomed to seeing from Nelson — deadly shooter, drive-and-kick extraordinaire, pick and roll maven — these past few years were on full display against the Lakers in the period. It was an iconic sequence of events for Nelson because not only did it reveal his growth in head coach Stan Van Gundy‘s system but also unearthed his potential to be an impact player for the Magic when the stakes were high.

Nelson displayed flashes of brilliance in the 2008 NBA Playoffs against the Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons, but everything came together that night.

Read more…

• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “Actually, the Heat ought to be on the [Orlando] Magic‘s mind 24/7, sun up, sun down. They should embrace them. [Quentin] Richardson is not alone, as Magic players are already tired and/or agitated when asked about South Florida’s can’t-miss dream team. Agitated a month before the real season begins? See? That’s a good sign. They might get annoyed, but the Heat are the best thing that’s happened lately to the Magic — and the league. That’s right. The Heat’s presence should make the Magic and everyone else elevate their games. Want to make it four in a row as Southeast Division champs, Magic? Beat the Heat. Want to come out of the Eastern Conference? Beat the Heat. Want another shot at the Lakers? I repeat, beat the Heat.”
• More from Schmitz: “There seemingly has been much hand-wringing during the Magic’s training camp over the whereabouts of Rashard Lewis. Will he really vacate his power-forward spot and switch to small forward, causing a seismic shift in the lineup? The short answer: no. The long answer: at times he will, when the Magic need more size at the 4 when they play the Celtics, who now have Shaq to go along with all their other big men, or the Lakers, who boast more 7-footers than Yao Ming’s family tree. [...] Van Gundy will start with Lewis at the 4, but insists he’s trying to assemble a Big Man Lineup out of [Ryan] Anderson, [Marcin] Gortat and [Brandon] Bass to play alongside Howard for stretches.”
• Dwight Howard talks about his new album (and click here).
• Head coach Stan Van Gundy praises Mickael Pietrus‘ performance in training camp: “M.P, he’s been unbelievable. I’ve been happy with everybody, but he’s probably stood out more than anyone. He’s making unbelievable efforts defensively. He’s making more solid plays with the ball offensively. His energy has been good. He’s been unbelievable.”
• With Jason Williams sidelined with an injury, maybe the Orlando Magic should pursue an old friend. Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post further explains: “For relative chump change, the Magic could sign a free-agent point guard strictly to serve as a body in training camp so [Chris] Duhon and [Jameer] Nelson can get some rest; as it is, the Magic are having Vince Carter and J.J. Redick slide down there from shooting guard. The fact that Anthony Johnson, who spent the last two seasons in Orlando, is still on the market may make this option especially attractive, as he would not need to be brought up to speed on the Magic’s system. In fact, no point guard played more minutes for the Magic in 2008/09 than Johnson did.”
• Howard’s jersey is popular in Europe.
• Jameer Nelson reminisces on his time playing alongside Chris Duhon on the U21 USA basketball team: “He beat me out for the job. But whenever I played against him in practice, I let him know I was there. And vice versa.”
• NBA 2K11 has adjusted their player ratings. What do you think?
• Sekou Smith of the Hang Time Blog chimes in on the “Van Gundy Rule.”
• Trey Kerby of Ball Don’t Lie has more on the subject: “If you’ve ever watched an Orlando Magic game, then you know Stan Van Gundy is famous for three things — screaming, looking like various rotund Italian-American celebrities, and wearing mock turtlenecks underneath his sport coat. Apparently, this year, he’s going to be almost unrecognizable.”
• Ditto with Royce Young of CBSSports.com: “In 2005, the NBA instituted a dress code for its players to go by and it caused quite a stir. Some called it racist, some called it stupid and some actually thought it was a good idea. In the end, the controversy dissolved and now everyone seems fine with players arriving wearing a nice pair of corduroy pleated slacks with a tasteful two-button mauve tweed jacket. (I have no idea anything in that last sentence actually is.) Now, the dress code has moved to include coaches. Some of the NBA’s top sideline wanderers had started taking advantage of the lax dress code rules, one being Stan Van Gundy and his mock turtlenecks. Well, the NBA has had enough of those. Now, coaches are required to wear collared shirts on the sidelines.”
• Kyle Stack of SLAM ONLINE critiques the Magic’s new logo: “While the Magic aren’t completely eliminating their association with their roots — after all, Vega just made the point of keeping the stars that were their first identity — there’s a natural maturation which takes place. Vega likened it to that of a person. Now that the Magic are 21 years old, they’re making smarter decisions which comes from the experience and knowledge they’ve gained as an organization. First the first time in their history, the Magic are an annual threat to win a championship. They want to show fans their new look is emblematic of the focus they have on winning their first title.”
• Chris Duhon is no longer in LeBron James’ shadow. Tim Povtak of NBA FanHouse explains: “The LeBron James era never materialized in New York City, but point guard Chris Duhon still feels like he played right through a part of it. Duhon was the starting point guard for the Knicks the past two seasons, trying to lead a team whose only real goal was creating salary cap space to lure James in his celebrated summer of free agency. James never came, but his presence always was felt.”
• Alex Kennedy of HOOPSWORLD with an interesting report: “The company line in Orlando is that they made informal inquiries about both Chris Paul in July and Carmelo Anthony in August and those inquiries never included discussion of specific players and died quickly. Hornets’ sources confirmed Orlando’s pursuit of Chris Paul this summer as more than informal and more than a single inquiry, saying Orlando had reached out a number of times over the last year, but New Orleans just is not interested. Fast forward a month and the Magic made similar aggressive inquiries with Denver. [...] When you wonder why Orlando isn’t in the mix with Denver now, it’s mainly because they want Carmelo along with Chauncey Billups and not just Melo alone. Unless they could get both in a deal, they like the group they have in place now and wouldn’t break it up for Carmelo alone, unless they got him for a single player straight up, which isn’t going to happen.”

Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images

The APBRmetrics community is always trying to find better and more effective ways to quantify a player’s value as accurately as possible. Every linear metric has its flaws, whether it’s PER, adjusted plus/minus, or whatever else, but using them all in conjunction with each other is an excellent way of lessening some of the biases that are inherent in their formulas and painting an accurate picture of how good or bad a player is. And now, courtesy of DSMok1, we have another advanced statistic that can be thrown into the pot. Say hello to advanced statistical plus/minus.

It’s important to note that this metric isn’t the end-all, be-all.

Click here to see the full spreadsheet of the 2009-2010 regular season. Enjoy.

• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “So, what will the Orlando Magic do now that they’ve retained J.J. Redick? They’ll add a third point guard to back up starter Jameer Nelson and Chris Duhon. The Magic roster now consists of 12 players. The league-mandated minimum is 13, and the Magic want a third point guard. Magic General Manager Otis Smith indicated that Jason Williams remains in the mix. [...] The Magic can use only one of two salary-cap exceptions to sign free agents other than Williams or Anthony Johnson. The biannual exception of up to $2.08 million for next season is available, but it seems unlikely the Magic would spend that kind of money for a third-string player. The Magic instead would use the minimum-salary exception, which tops out at $1.35 million next season for players who have at least 10 years of NBA experience.”
• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “[Stan] Van Gundy said Redick again will go into training camp as the back-up to Vince Carter, but the coach added that he will look at playing the two together more. Carter would shift to the small-forward spot on those work shifts. Van Gundy said that Redick felt confident the Magic would retain him, but Redick wondered if the club would absorb the huge luxury-tax hit on his deal. If the Magic remain in the tax the next three seasons — a strong likelihood unless they make moves to pare payroll — they could be paying upwards to $30 million for Redick’s contract.”
• The roster for the Orlando Magic is, more or less, accounted for.
• The Magic are looking for a third point guard in free agency. Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus lays out some options.

Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Synergy-fueled player evaluations, with the help of other metrics, are always fun.

Today, Chris Duhon.

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To better make sense of the madness that is free agency, especially considering their historical ramifications within the framework of the NBA, I’m going to aggregate any facts and rumors that pertain to the Orlando Magic into a notebook-type post. The posts will be constructed daily at 12:00 PM EDT and updated throughout the day. Make sure to check back when updates are made available. I’ll post a time-stamp at the beginning of the posts to make it easier for you, the reader, to know about the latest news. I’ll make notifications on Twitter, too. As the free agent period begins to wind down and the Magic fill out their roster, the notebooks will be posted sporadically — every few days or so. I know my friend and former colleague, Ben Q. Rock, is doing a similar thing at Orlando Pinstriped Post (without the updates, I believe) so I’ll try to mix things up as much as possible to avoid redundancy.

Also, if you happen to come across any free agent or trade news related to the Magic, feel free to pass it along in the comments section and you’ll get a hat tip in the post for the scoop.

With that said, let’s get to it.

UPDATED as of 9:59 PM EDT.

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• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “The [Orlando] Magic‘s roster indeed needs some filling out, especially at point guard. Jameer Nelson‘s backups, Jason Williams and Anthony Johnson, are aging free agents. Williams hasn’t ruled out returning even as the third point guard/mentor, but the Magic need to get younger and, ahem, taller. [Otis] Smith isn’t committed to drafting a trainee, adding, “I think you always take the best guy available. I don’t think you can go in saying ‘point guard’ and pass on a better guy.” Interestingly, of the six players who worked out for the Magic on Monday, only Greivis Vasquez, 6 feet 6, formerly of Maryland, is a true point guard. Vasquez has size, but isn’t a great on-the-ball defender, which is what the Magic desperately need. That doesn’t mean Smith hasn’t had his eye on, say, point guards Terrico White and Mikhail Torrance, both 6-5.”
• George Diaz of the Orlando Sentinel: “The Magic can’t snag much help with the 29th overall selection. But there are other options. Do they make a run at point guard Chris Paul? What about beefing up the power forward slot with Carlos Boozer? Is anyone out there willing to take on Vince Carter‘s $17.3 million contract for a year? All these shifting variables will determine where the Magic stand a year from now, and whether they are strong enough to stop the three-peat run by the Los Angeles Lakers. The most important time of the year is now. It’s all about the ingredients in the kitchen, and what you can brew up to win an NBA championship. The Magic are in a tough spot because that 4-1 offense with Dwight Howard inside and four guys on the perimeter has combined to win 118 regular-season games over the last two seasons. But it also matches up poorly against teams with bigger lineups, as playoff losses to the Lakers in ’09 and the Boston Celtics this season proved. Going to a more conventional lineup is a huge philosophical shift for this team. But assuming that’s the plan, who do you roll with at the power forward slot? Boozer and David Lee of the New York Knicks are the two most coveted ‘gets’ on the Magic fans wish list but there’s also the thought that the Magic already have a big man who can fit the bill — Brandon Bass. All of us get to play amateur GMs, but only Smith has the power to make a deal.”
• George Shinn, owner of the New Orleans Hornets, wants to build around Chris Paul.
• CP3 is open to a trade, however, as long as he gets a chance to win: “My first choice is to be in New Orleans. I just want to make sure we’re committed to winning. If we’re not committed to winning and trying to get better so we can contend with the Lakers, the Celtics and all these other top teams, then I’m open to being traded. [...] I’m fine with staying in New Orleans, but I want to make sure we’re committed to winning. I don’t want to rebuild. I want to win now. It’s nothing personal against the city. I love that city. But my biggest thing is winning.”
• Rashard Lewis is down with OPP.
• Devin Ebanks and Andy Rautins, two draft prospects that worked out with the Orlando Magic earlier in the week, are considered “hidden gems” according to Ryen Russillo of ESPN Insider. Here’s what Russillo had to say about Rautins: “[He] is one of the few pure shooters in this draft. He is great off the catch, uses screens well to get an open look and has a quick release. Rautins will have a defined role from day one in the NBA: come off the bench and hit shots. At 6-5, he is big and athletic enough to play shooting guard. His handle is good, and he already has NBA range. Rautins will have to understand a good shot in the pros versus a good shot in college. If he goes undrafted, I’ll be shocked.”
• Jordan Schultz of NBA FanHouse writes an excellent story on Quincy Pondexter, a possible Magic draftee: “Defensively, I think he may be the best wing defender on the West Coast, in that he uses his length very well both on the ball, when he harasses the opposition, as well as in the passing lanes, where many of his open-court steals lead to easy baskets. His ability to guard up to three NBA positions boosts his value. It is a rare blend of tools for a 6-7 wing laterally fluid enough to guard twos and threes, yet strong and athletic enough to defend fours. It is perhaps even more relevant than his improved offensive repertoire. [...] He hasn’t developed the range on his NBA three yet, but given his vast mid-range improvements since his freshman season, teams should see he is willing to put in the work. At this juncture, his scoring prowess (19.3 points) is best served from the 18-foot mark and in, where he mixes his pull-ups with dribble-drive and posting.”
• Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference takes a look at how draft choices perform by pick number.

• George Diaz of the Orlando Sentinel: “Quick disclaimer: I love Orlando’s style of play. It’s an energetic, fast-paced, shoot ‘em up style that has made them one of the elite teams in the NBA. But they are not the best of the best. The Los Angeles and the Boston Celtics are better because they are more physical and they are bigger. The Celtics proved that over the course of a best-of-seven series,  they could take away Orlando’s outstanding perimeter game by playing Dwight Howard without any help defense. [...] I don’t see Matt Barnes — their toughest defender outside of Dwight Howard — coming back. That will hurt. Otis Smith, the GM with great poker face, needs to work his magic one more time and figure out how to upgrade this team. I think Rashard Lewis – untradable contract in case you forgot — would be a better fit at small forward, leaving a slot open for a more physical power forward.”
• Contrary to popular belief, the Orlando Magic aren’t a fast-paced team. During the regular season, the Magic ranked 18th in pace.
• These are the seven things Orlando isn’t doing during the off-season.
• Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “[...] for Orlando Magic fans, the most interesting question is whether Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers will return. To be fair, it’s one that guys like Marc Stein were asking hours before tipoff, but you get the idea. After an emotional postgame news conference, Rivers walked off the podium to a standing ovation from the media, which veteran reporter Chris Mannix said he’d never seen. I say Rivers is relevant to the Magic’s fans because Orlando is where he and his family make their home, and he got his head-coaching start here. Despite his coaching the hated Celtics, I get the sense that Rivers is fairly well liked around town.”
• Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress offers his take on Fran Vazquez: The Spanish big man could start on a number of NBA teams thanks to his athleticism, shot-blocking ability and rebounding prowess. But that seems unlikely at this point, as Vazquez, Rubio’s teammate in Barcelona, is comfortable in his native country and hasn’t really been courted all that heavily by Orlando.”
• Sandy Dover of SLAM ONLINE approves of the Magic’s new logo: “As for the Magic’s logo, while I loved the personification of actual magic in the stars and stylized fonts of the older logos, changing the type face for “ORLANDO MAGIC” does make some sense for continuity purposes, especially when you’re able to see that the logo scripts match the logo’s wordmarks. I have never particularly cared for the star that the Magic have used since 1999, but that remains, and actually with the less elaborate fonts that Orlando has now installed in the insignia, the star, as is, fits. The bolder, more straightforward scripts seems genuinely more powerful and bolder, even while it’s lost a bit of snazz and uniqueness in the process.”
• In John Hollinger’s latest NBA franchise rankings, which he updates year-by-years, Orlando jumps up to the No. 9 spot: “The Magic have been the most consistently successful of the league’s early-’90s expansion teams, and have done it while showcasing several of the game’s biggest stars. Shaq, Penny, Tracy McGrady and Dwight Howard would be all-timers in most franchise’s pantheons; Magic fans saw all four in a span of a dozen years. [...] with the current edition having posted consecutive 59-win seasons and made the 2009 Finals, Orlando seems well poised to move up the ladder. In fact, they already have — the Magic climbed six rungs since we did this exercise a year ago.”
• Final 2009-2010 power rankings, brought to you by Basketball-Reference.
• Nate Robinson to Orlando? A slim possibility, according to ESPN’s Rumor Central: “For as infuriating as he can be at times, Robinson’s energy off the bench is something other teams will covet. And with plenty of money to be given out this summer, Robinson will likely find a landing spot. Don’t expect him to return to the Knicks, though. One team that could bite on Robinson? Maybe Orlando, a team that could have a backup point guard void if they don’t re-sign Jason Williams or Anthony Johnson. But the Magic will be over the cap, so this seems unlikely.”
• This isn’t the first time that Robinson’s name and the Magic have been linked together.