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Game 2 of the 2009 NBA Finals is hard to watch for many reasons. It was a loss, for one thing. But far more painful is the memory of a confident, exciting group of guys who did a lot of things right. I would not go so far as to call the Magic in 2009 a team of destiny, but I would certainly say that my excitement after 2009 was through the roof thinking about the potential the Magic had of stringing together multiple championship seasons.

Now, after a couple of years, we can only look back fondly (even at the losses) in 2009 and wonder where that team of destiny went.

Dwight was not quite ready 
He did so many things right. He attracted the double-team, got to the foul line (sometimes), passed the ball with precision (for the most part), and rebounded like it was going out of style. What was missing for me was that takeover hunger that Kobe Bryant had throughout the entire game and series. Yes, Dwight demanded the ball, but he did not command the paint. At times he struggled to make good decisions like going left instead of right, or spinning for the lob instead of trying to back Gasol down. You can’t point the finger at Dwight, but you can safely say that he was not ready to win a championship. This was not Shaq, nor was it Tim Duncan. He needed another year or two to develop (which he did). The sad thing is that 2009 team did not stay a 2009 team with him. They dwindled as his game got progressively better. It is one of the more painful memories Magic fans have. Dwight was great, he was even terrific, but he was not ready in 2009 to win a championship.

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Pythagorean wins is a formula that converts points scored and allowed into a predicted winning percentage. The results can show, among other things, teams that over/under perform, win/lose many close games, or just experience good/bad luck.

To predict an NBA team’s winning percentage, the following calculation is performed:

(Points Scored^16.5) / (Points scored^16.5  + Points allowed^16.5) = Winning Percentage

Approach
This article will focus on the NBA teams with the most total wins over the last four regular seasons (Lakers-236, Celtics-234, Magic-222, Spurs-221, Mavericks-213). The last four seasons are used because:

• Stan Van Gundy’s tenure in Orlando started four years ago (LAL, BOS, SA same coach all four years too)
• Rick Carlisle has coached the Mavericks for three of the last four seasons
• The stars (Howard, Bryant, Duncan, Nowitzki, Garnett, etc.) played with same team entire span

This piece counts a close game as any contest with a final margin of three points or fewer (one possession). A blowout is any contest with a final margin of fifteen points or more (five possessions).

Wins
Only the Timberwolves (do they even count?) have fallen short of their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than the Orlando Magic over the last four seasons. During the same span, Orlando never finished a season with more actual wins than Pythagorean wins.

The Dallas Mavericks check in on the other end of the spectrum as they exceeded their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than any other team (10). As I mentioned in a Hoopdata article, some of the Mavericks’ success can be attributed to their record in close games (34-18). The Mavericks’ scoring differential predicted 203 wins over the last four years, but they actually won 213. On the other hand, Orlando’s scoring differential predicted 232 wins, but they actually won 222.

The Lakers amassed the most regular seasons win during the period, but their Pythagorean win total was equal to Orlando’s. In other words, they were victorious 14 more times than Orlando even though their scoring differentials indicated the same number. The Spurs collected just one fewer win than Orlando, but their scoring differential indicated 14 fewer wins.

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Via the Orlando Magic:

The National Basketball Association today released its 2011-12 schedule and announced the Orlando Magic will open its 23rd season on Wednesday, November 2 at Amway Center against Charlotte. Tip-off is 7 p.m.

Orlando Magic season tickets, partial plans, group and single-game Amway Center suite rental opportunities are on sale now. Ticket highlights include: 2,500 seats priced $20 or less, 8,000 seats priced $40 or less and 9,000 seats priced $50 or under. Single-game tickets will go on sale in October. A limited number of season tickets are available through the Orlando Magic Box Office by calling 407-89-MAGIC or visiting orlandomagic.com. Fans will receive refunds, with interest, in the event games are missed because of the NBA work stoppage.

Orlando opens training camp on October 4 at Amway Center. The Magic’s complete regular season schedule is available through their official website: orlandomagic.com. The entire NBA schedule can be found on the league’s official website: NBA.com.

The 61st NBA All-Star Game will be played on Sunday, February 26 at Amway Center, which will also host the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge & Youth Jam on Friday, February 24 and NBA All-Star Saturday Night presented by State Farm on Saturday, February 25. NBA All-Star Jam Session presented by adidas, the hugely successful interactive basketball celebration, will be held at the Orange County Convention Center.

On March 7-8, Orlando will travel to London, England for a pair of regular season games against the New Jersey Nets. Both games will be played at London’s O2 Arena. It marks the second time in franchise history that the Magic will have regular season games scheduled outside of the United States. In 1996-97, Orlando also played New Jersey in a pair of contests in Tokyo, Japan.

Orlando has 14 national television games scheduled. The Magic will appear once on ABC (February 19 @ Miami), five times on ESPN and eight times on TNT.

The Magic’s local broadcast schedule will be released at a later date.

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Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

As the Oklahoma City Thunder, scheduled to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals later tonight, continue their quest towards progressing to the Finals, it’s hard not to look at the roster constructed by general manager Sam Presti and begin the process of comparing it to another up-and-coming team from back in the day.

With Kevin Durant, the Thunder have their superstar. Their leader. Their face of the franchise.

At the peak of his powers, Durant is one of the best players in the NBA that surely deserves to be mentioned in the same breathe with LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and others.

But what makes Durant a rare commodity is that he’s a star player that is humble, selfless, and extremely team-oriented in every sense of the term. Durant’s latest national advertising campaign with Gatorade is all you need to know about him. The spotlight may be on Durant but he always goes out of his way to include his teammates, like on this year’s NBA preview cover of Sports Illustrated, making sure they’re recognized as well.

Plus, Durant is more than content playing in Oklahoma City, not seeking the limelight of bigger cities like New York and Los Angeles. Durant wants to play basketball, and doesn’t need to do it in a specific media market

Needless to say, Durant is unlike his attention-seeking peers.

Then there’s Russell Westbrook, a player that has blossomed into a star but is still trying to shape himself on the court. Westbrook isn’t perfect and his detractors will remind him every step of the way, as it seems like he’s learning on the job at 100 miles per hour. But Westbrook’s ascent as one of the best point guards has been one of the more notable developments in the league this season.

Westbrook is the ying to Durant’s yang and even though their collective equilibrium on offense sways wildly from side-to-side every so often, more so on Westbrook’s half, there’s no question that they’ve become a dynamic duo at the tender ages of 22.

Those seeking an example for the potential of a perfect symbiotic relationship between Westbrook and Durant should look no further than Game 7 of the 2011 Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies. Westbrook was the playmaker. Durant was the scorer.

Teams around the NBA would kill to be in the Thunder’s position of possessing two young stars with nearly limitless potential.

The Orlando Magic, more than most franchises, can relate to such being in such an envious position. Once upon a time, the Magic were the darlings of the league in the mid-’90s with two young stars en tow — Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway.

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Via the Orlando Magic:

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, winner of the last three Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Awards, headlines the NBA All-Defensive First Team, the NBA announced today. Howard totaled 56 points overall, including 27 First Team votes.

Howard earned the 2010-11 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, becoming the first player to win the award three straight seasons. He led the league with 66 double-doubles, while ranking second in rebounds (14.1 rpg) and fourth in blocks (2.38 bpg). He recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots for the sixth straight year; since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons). With Howard manning the middle, the [Orlando] Magic allowed 93.5 ppg, ranking fourth in that category.

Also selected to the All-Defensive First Team are guard Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics (39 points), forward LeBron James of the Miami Heat (38 points), forward Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics (33 points) and guard Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers (33 points). Garnett and Bryant each earn All-Defensive First Team honors for the ninth time, tying Michael Jordan and Gary Payton for the most in NBA history.

The NBA All-Defensive Second Team consists of guards Tony Allen of the Memphis Grizzlies and Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets, center Tyson Chandler of the Dallas Mavericks, forward Andre Iguodala of the Philadelphia 76ers and forward-center Joakim Noah of the Chicago Bulls.

The voting panel consisted of the NBA’s 30 head coaches, who were asked to select NBA All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position. Coaches were not permitted to vote for players from their own team. Two points were awarded for a First Team vote and one point was awarded for a Second Team vote.

AP Photo/John Raoux

Via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel:

A week has passed since the Orlando Magic exited the playoffs with a Game 6 first-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks.

Haven’t gotten over it?

Neither has the Magic’s chief executive officer, Bob Vander Weide.

“We didn’t get to our goal, so it’ll take me a while and I’ll deal with it,” Vander Weide said today.

“As we get prepared to get through the summer and some of the business issues, we’ve got to keep thinking how do we get better and how do we improve this club and how do we not fall short of our goals? Everyone that works for the Magic feels the same way. We never, ever thought we’d be out in the first round. No, I’m not over it and I won’t be for a while.”

Magic fans would nod their heads in agreement.

The expectation entering the season for the Orlando Magic was to avenge last year’s series defeat in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics and try to make their way back to the Finals.

With the Miami Heat and Celtics jostling for supremacy in the East, as well as the Chicago Bulls in retrospect, there was an understanding that the task at hand was going to be difficult but no one expected the Magic to lose in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

Nevertheless, that’s what happened. Now Orlando has to pick up the pieces.

AP Photo/John Amis

• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “The Orlando Magic face a long, uncertain offseason. Those months off will be filled with questions about how a season that started with such promise ended with such overwhelming disappointment. A team that advanced to the NBA Finals in 2009 and reached the Eastern Conference finals in 2010 didn’t go beyond the first round this year. This postseason ended Thursday night after the Magic fell 84-81 in Game 6 of their opening-round series to the Atlanta Hawks. [...] The series concluded, appropriately enough, on a pair of misfired 3-pointers. J.J. Redick missed a wide-open shot that would’ve tied the game with 3.9 seconds remaining — a shot he’d likely sink eight out of 10 times inside Amway Center’s gym. [...] The Magic had another chance to tie the score after Atlanta’s Al Horford collected the loose ball and stepped on the baseline with 1.8 seconds left. But Jason Richardson, playing on an injured left heel, put up a desperation heave that Hawks forward Josh Smith blocked easily. The final play set off a wild celebration inside Philips Arena, the same place where the Magic completed a second-round sweep of the Hawks last year.”
• Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel: “The road of regression is complete. The Magic have come to a devastatingly depressing dead end. From NBA Finals two years ago to first-round losers Thursday night. They used to run with Lakers and Celtics; now they can’t even hang with the Hawks. So where do they go now after this devastating 84-81 season-ending loss to Atlanta? Where do they go now that they have become lost on this highway to nothingness? Team CEO Bob Vander Weide has already said nobody is getting fired and that he is happy with general manager Otis Smith and coach Stan Van Gundy. But as Van Gundy said before tipoff Thursday night, ‘Those votes of confidence are usually the kiss of death in this game.’ Of course, Van Gundy was joking even though this is not a joking matter. We are, after all, only talking about the future of the franchise here. And since it appears nobody else will take the fall, I guess I will. If Vander Weide needs a scapegoat, I’ll take the blame. I’ll volunteer to be fired – as long as I get Van Gundy’s $8 million buyout. It was me, after all, who provided the Hawks their fuel and fire heading into Game 6.”
• John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com: “In a cruel, twisted sort of way, it was only fitting Thursday night that the biggest play of a game that ultimately ended the Orlando Magic’s season came down to an offensive rebound. As had been the case all night long, Atlanta got the rebound and the Magic didn’t. And because the Magic struggled on the boards early in the game and again at the end, their season abruptly ended in the first round – well short of the stated goal of winning a championship. When the Magic couldn’t corral an offensive rebound with 10 seconds to play in a one-point game, they were forced to foul Jamal Crawford, who buried two free throws. Orlando was left with a clear 3-point look by J.J. Redick to tie, but when the shot hit off the back iron, the stunned Magic were left to contemplate an 84-81 Game 6 defeat and a 4-2 loss in the series to the rival Hawks.”
• Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “The Atlanta Hawks ended the Orlando Magic’s season Thursday night with an 84-81 victory in Game Six of their playoff series, and for the first time in four seasons, the Magic failed to advance to the second round of the playoffs. Joe Johnson scored 23 for Atlanta, while Jamal Crawford added 19, but their combined 16-of-41 shooting attests to the fact that the Hawks took this game for reasons apart from their offense. Indeed, the Hawks–the league’s second-worst offensive rebounding team in the regular season–snared 36.8 percent of their own misses Thursday night against a Magic team which led the league in defensive rebounding. As a result of the offensive boards and frequent misses, the Hawks finished the game with 12 more field-goal attempts than the Magic, which may have been the difference in a three-point game.”
• Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “They’d been the better team through four games, and then they lost Game 5 and folks started talking about how lousy they were. An Orlando Sentinel columnist called them the Birdbrains, which sounded a bit strange: If the Hawks were such plods, why were they still leading? The same scribe predicted the Magic, having won one game in a row, would outsmart the Hawks and win the series. And maybe if this were “Jeopardy” they would have. But this is basketball, and at last check MIT hasn’t been to the Final Four lately. And Orlando won’t be going to Round 2 of these NBA playoffs. The Atlanta Birdbrains will.”
• Bret LaGree of Hoopinion: “The Atlanta Hawks took control of this game in the first quarter on the strength of the defense played by Jason Collins and Kirk Hinrich. Without the play of those two without the ball in their hands, Jamal Crawford and Marvin Williams don’t get a chance to make the jump shots that clinched the game for the Hawks (to the extent that Orlando missing open jump shots didn’t clinch the game for the Hawks). Hinrich didn’t just stifle Jameer Nelson when given the chance to play. He, in the first quarter, dug down very effectively on Howard (as Collins used his bulk to hold him up) and salvaged points from more than one sluggard and potentially empty Atlanta possession. {…] To Larry Drew’s credit, he came up with an effective game plan to defend the Magic over 10 matchups this season. That’s a huge step forward from the 2010 playoffs even if he didn’t always stick with said plan. It turns out that a fixation on Dwight Howard had real, tangible value for the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks.”