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J.J. Redick plays a solid game, a fluid game, and a game that makes us think we are missing him when he is gone. Those around the league like to say he has a “high basketball IQ.” But does he? It seems that sometimes there are players who can give you positive output in almost every statistical category, but still fail to impact the game the way you want them to.

First we have to define basketball IQ. I hear it a lot when a player makes an unexpectedly good decision, or shows in some way that he schooled himself on his opponent. Generally it means preparedness, or the ability to adapt the rhythm of the game no matter what. Moreover, it means thinking ahead, and being one step ahead of your opponent.

At first glance I would say Redick definitely has a high basketball IQ. But how does this translate to statistics? I break it down into four categories: taking smart shots, making smart passes, playing strong defense, and protecting the ball. Superstar or not, if you can keep those four areas of your game on speed dial, you will do more good than harm for your team.

As for taking smart shots, Redick obviously does not struggle with the temptation to throw up circus shots, or go off shooting fadeaway’s from deep. His shot selection is sound, as evidenced by his .589 True Shooting percentage from this season. In fact, only two Magic players have a better True Shooting percentage than Redick—Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson.

Need a current Eastern Conference Finals contender to compare that to? Kyle Korver currently has a True Shooting percentage of .572, and D-Wade is .581. So yes, Redick shoots for a high percentage, and at 17 percent usage, that is exactly what you need out of him.

Redick’s True Shooting percentage puts him among the leagues top 50 players, so he gets an A in this category.

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Via Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post:

It’s unfair to pin responsibility for the team’s offensive shortcomings on any one player, but I do think [Jason] Richardson has to go under the microscope a bit here. He averaged 19.3 points in just 31.8 minutes per game with the Phoenix Suns prior to the deals, shooting 41.9 percent from beyond the arc and 47.7 percent overall. Though he played more minutes with Orlando–34.9, to be precise–his productivity declined sharply, perhaps as a natural consequence of no longer having a point guard of Steve Nash’s caliber feeding him the ball. Richardson shot a good, but not great, 38.4 percent on threes and, worrisomely, just 43.3 percent from the field. Carter, thanks to his foul-drawing ability and improved accuracy on twos, actually scored more efficiently for Orlando than Richardson did this season.

[Gilbert] Arenas is another scapegoat of sorts, though I’m not sure what anyone might have expected a man coming off three knee surgeries in the last three years to accomplish in the smallest role he’s ever held at the professional level. He proved an unmitigated disaster offensively, shooting more often, per minute, than everyone on the team, but converting just 34.4 percent of his shots. He had the right idea when it came to pushing the pace in transition, but still made curious decisions in the halfcourt, resulting in his unacceptably high turnover rate of 19.3. And the poor decision-making also manifested itself in his shot selection.

Dunlap has been chronicling everything that went wrong for the Orlando Magic during the 2010-2011 season in a series of posts — here’s his take on Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass failing in the playoffs after productive regular seasons.

The articles, though cringe-worthy, are honest assessments and worth the read.

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There once was a man made of brick-and-mortar,
but his role diminished in the 4th quarter.
He will be remembered as an all-time great,
but you’d never guess it from his usage rate.

Today, I stumbled upon a poem I wrote a while ago (yesterday), and it compelled me to explore Dwight Howard’s usage rate in the 4th quarter with the help of StatsCube.

Orlando’s center boasted the NBA’s 19th highest usage rate (possessions used while on floor) during the 2010-2011 regular season, but his rate plummeted in the final period of the game. Some other key statistics indicate Dwight was at his best in the 4th quarter.

Green indicates at least 10% greater than average. Red indicates at least 10% below average.

However, maybe his stats are just a classic case of a reduced usage rate coinciding with more efficient performance? Let’s explore possible explanations for why the MVP candidate’s usage rate decreased in the final frame.

Dwight struggled at the stripe
Dwight averaged 11.2 free throw attempts per 36 minutes in the regular season. In the 4th quarter, his attempts rose to 14.0 per 36 minutes, nearly twice his 1st quarter rate of 7.8.

Why did this happen? Either teams deliberately fouled Dwight late or the Magic went to him more often. Dwight’s relatively low usage rate in the 4th quarter suggests he was fouled more often by design.

The most important part of this debate is his free throw percentage in the 4th quarter. Dwight made 59.6% of his free throws during the season. In the 4th, he made 64% of his freebies, his best rate in any quarter. The big man never broke 60% in quarters 1 through 3.

In fairness, his 4th quarter rate was still a shot below those of his teammates: Hedo Turkoglu (70%), Jameer Nelson (74%), Jason Richardson (78%), and Brandon Bass (80%).

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Via Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel:

An unconventional power forward, [Ryan] Anderson intrigues teams. He has size at 6-feet 10, can shoot the 3 and could be a better post-up player with some weight-room work. What also is appealing is Anderson’s salary over the next three seasons: $1.4 million, $2.2 million, $3.2 million. He could be the “sweetener” the [Orlando] Magic would have to add to a deal that returns a starting shooting guard or power forward.

What the Magic have with [Brandon] Bass, in reality, is a starting power forward that would be a solid back-up on other teams. If you could only splice Bass and Anderson together in some Swedish laboratory, you’d have a star, although neither are great defenders. Bass is labeled “No-Pass Bass” because you’ll seldom get the ball back from him. But he can shoot it from medium range, and he also has a power game. Too bad he’s only about 6-7. Like Anderson, he has a friendly contract ($4 mill for each of the next two seasons.)

I think shooting guard J.J. Redick has some value as a 3-point threat and ball-mover, although teams aren’t wild about his remaining two seasons at $6.5 million and $6 million.

Locked into some long-term contracts and in a salary-cap situation comparable to the national debt, the Magic can only hope that Hedo Turkoglu and Chris Duhon rebound to increase their value. Gilbert Arenas? Even if he bounced back, other franchises still fear his dog-eared baggage.

General manager Otis Smith has his work cut out for him in the offseason. The blockbuster trades in December have left Smith with little wiggle room to fix the roster.

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Before the playoffs started, I previewed Orlando’s first round matchup using data from Synergy Sports Technology. Last week, we looked at the playoff games in Atlanta. Today, let’s examine the results from the contest in Orlando.

Game 5

PPP = Points Per Possession

Orlando offense
The Magic shot 11-26 beyond the arc and it seemed like a Big Foot sighting. However, it wasn’t too far off their typical production. In the 2010-2011 regular season, Orlando attempted 20+ three-pointers and made 40% or more on 29 different occasions. 29!

J.J. Redick supplied shooting sorcery as he went 6-8 to spark the Magic. He scored two buckets in transition and made the rest as the ball handler in pick-and-roll situations. His jumper over Kirk Hinrich at the end of the first quarter put Orlando up 14 and he went to the line to complete the old fashioned three-point play. The former Blue Devil provided a great boost off the bench without even attempting a shot beyond the arc.

Two days removed from posting 0.44 PPP in spot-up situations, a rejuvenated Magic squad delivered 0.95 PPP. Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Ryan Anderson all made multiple spot-up attempts.

Orlando used possessions in transition more often in Game 5 than the any other playoff game. The team averaged 0.93 PPP and Anderson, Jameer Nelson, and Quentin Richardson all knocked down threes on the run.

All season long, the Magic have made an effort to post-up against Atlanta. In the first four playoff games, they never posted-up fewer than 21 times. On Tuesday, Orlando only went to the move on eight occasions, and Brandon Bass and Jason Richardson were responsible for the only buckets.

Orlando defense
The Hawks went to isolation plays frequently in the previous four games, but in Game 5, Atlanta only isolated 12.6% of the time. The next closest total was 17% of their plays in Game 3. Joe Johnson isolated four times yesterday and each of his attempts came against a different defender.

The Hawks, specifically Jamal Crawford, tore Orlando apart shooting off screens in Games 1 through 4. On Tuesday, the Hawks scored 0.57 PPP and misfired on all four attempts in the 1st quarter.

Orlando was upper echelon at stopping roll men during the regular season, but in the playoffs, Atlanta found success. In Game 5, Atlanta barely went to the play and missed on both of their shots from roll men.

The Magic coxed the Hawks into their most spot-up attempts so far in Game 5. The Hawks chucked it up 26 times and scored 1.04 PPP, their second lowest rate through five games.

Another area Atlanta was terrible in was transition. The Hawks used 13 possessions running, a playoff high, and clanged all five of their three-point attempts.

Game 5 was a reappearance of the 2010 NBA Playoffs. Now, the Magic head to Atlanta, where they haven’t won this season. Let’s hope The Otis Smith 11 can put Dwight Howard on their back again on Thursday and force Game 7.

BOX SCORE

Able to stave off elimination and avoid ending their season on their home court, the Orlando Magic were able to defeat the Atlanta Hawks by the score of 101-76 and force a Game 6 on Thursday on the road. One of the running narratives in the series has centered on the Magic’s three-point shooting, and how awful it’s been. Heading into Game 5, Orlando was shooting 21.8 percent from three-point range. Even though the Hawks deserve credit for being able to stymie the Magic’s army of three-point shooters, that’s still an abnormally low percentage and more of a statistical anomaly than anything else. During the regular season, Orlando shot 36.6 percent on threes and sooner or later, the odds of them regressing to the mean were high. The question was whether or not it’d be too late. Well, if the Game 5 result is any indication, the answer is no. The Magic shot 11-of-26 (42.3 percent) from three-point range and finally played up to their potential on both ends of the floor. Orlando was led by a balanced attack, as nine players scored seven points or more. Jason Richardson paced the starters with 17 points, returning from his Game 4 suspension and making a positive impact offensively. J.J. Redick stood out among the reserves with 14 points on eight shots in less than 20 minutes of playing time. It speaks volumes that the Magic were able to crush the Hawks by 25 points, given that Dwight Howard only had eight points and eight rebounds, but it says more so that the supporting cast was able to step up.

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AP Photo/John Bazemore

• Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “At some point Jamal Crawford has to cool off, right? The Atlanta Hawks shooting guard has torched the Orlando Magic in the first four games of this playoff series, averaging 24 points and shooting 56.5 percent from three-point range. In a series defined by ugly offense and hard-nosed defense, Crawford’s finesse and efficiency shooting the basketball have stood out. And the frustrating part for the Magic is they’re keeping a defender nearby and in his face — he’s just connecting on the jumpers, anyway. [...] Crawford’s remarkable consistency — he’s scored 25, 23, 25 and 23 points in the four games — has carried the Hawks. The Magic assumed the law of averages might help limit Crawford, but that hasn’t worked. His shooting percentage (47.1 in the playoffs compared to 42.1 in the regular season), three-point percentage (56.5 to 34.1) and points per game (24 to 14.2) are far above his usual performance. He’s not going to just start missing on his own, as the Magic may have hoped. So on Monday at practice, the Magic focused on stopping Crawford (and Joe Johnson, who’s averaging 20 points per game this series).”
• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “The doors to Amway Center’s practice court opened around 3:45 Monday afternoon, and visitors looking to interview coach Stan Van Gundy witnessed something that’s been absent this postseason. Orlando Magic players made shots. Lots of them. Ryan Anderson, Chris Duhon, J.J. Redick and, later, Brandon Bass attempted shot after shot after shot — and made most of them. Staccato bursts of the sport’s prettiest sound filled the air. Basketballs fell through hoops and touched only the nets. Swish! Swish! Swish! The Magic need to duplicate that success when they host the Atlanta Hawks tonight in Game 5 of their playoff series. Trailing three games to one, Orlando must win to avoid elimination. [...] In Sunday’s Game 4 loss, the Magic went 2-for-23 from 3-point range. Van Gundy and his assistant coaches analyzed those attempts, and they found that if they excluded tries that came at the end of a quarter or just as the shotclock expired or were simply bad shots, the Magic went 2-for-15 from beyond the arc. Of those 15, eight were wide-open. The Magic made just one of those eight wide-open attempts.”
• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “About seven months ago, the Magic were star tenants in the spectacularly giddy grand opening of Amway Center. They certainly don’t want their season to close at their hoops palace Tuesday night with a final, farewell performance. Trailing the Atlanta Hawks three games to one in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference playoff series, the Magic look to avoid curtain-closing elimination. This could either be the start of an historic run for the Magic or the stunning end to a disappointing season, with repercussions possibly resonating through the summer. The futures of coach Stan Van Gundy, General Manager Otis Smith and superstar Dwight Howard could be affected. An early ouster obviously wouldn’t sit well with Howard, a five-time all star who can leave the Magic after next season as a free agent. He has had to carry the club this postseason, desperate for help from his lackluster supporting cast. Smith’s reputation as a front-office executive who built a contender has taken a hit. His two blockbuster trades in mid-December dramatically changed the team, but not necessarily for the better, and improving the already expensive roster will be difficult. And Van Gundy will be under scrutiny if the Magic are dispatched in the opening round. They tumbled to a 52-30 record this season after back-to-back 59-win seasons under the fiery coach. He has seen his offense, which relies heavily on the 3-point shot, fizzle against the Hawks.”
• John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com: “Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy was his usual load and vocal self after Sunday night’s Game 4 to the Atlanta Hawks as he searched for positives to encourage his frustrated basketball team. The gist of message was this: Nothing about the Magic’s plight – other than being in a must-win situation – has changed despite being in a 3-1 hole. The Magic still hope to protect their homecourt against the Hawks in Tuesday’s Game 5 at Amway Center. If they can force a Game 6 on Thursday, they still have to find a way to win in Atlanta, something that has been a reality since losing Game 1 in Orlando last week. And to do both of those things they still must figure how to get some sort of offensive flow going in a series where points and made shots have been tough to come by. And, oh yeah, the fourth-seeded Magic have to do it right away come Tuesday night or a season filled with so much promise could be over at the hands of the fifth-seeded Hawks.”
• Michael Cunningham of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “Now that his sizzling scoring has helped put the Hawks on the verge of advancing past the Magic into the Eastern Conference semifinals, the praise is flowing for Jamal Crawford. But Crawford remembers the tags critics not so long ago used to hang on him. He was a scorer but needed a lot of shots to get his points. He put up big numbers but he did so while playing for bad teams. His one-on-one style was good for highlights, bad for winning. [...] Most of those criticisms fell by the wayside last season, when Crawford joined the Hawks via trade and had the most efficient scoring season of his career. Atlanta won 53 games and Crawford was voted the NBA’s Sixth Man Award. He further bolstered his credentials last spring when he was Atlanta’s most consistent scorer in his first postseason appearance. That hardly gained notice, though, because the Hawks wheezed past Milwaukee in the first round before getting summarily swept by Orlando. Now Crawford is doing it again and more people are taking notice, especially Magic coach Stan Van Gundy.”

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Before the playoffs started, I previewed Orlando’s first round matchup using data from Synergy Sports Technology. Last week, we looked at the playoff games in Orlando. Today, let’s examine the results from the contests in Atlanta.

Game 3

PPP = Points Per Possession

Orlando offense
Orlando’s spot-up game finally produced in Game 3. In Games 1 and 2, Orlando never cracked 0.5 PPP in spot-up. In Game 3, it was Orlando’s best play and they obtained 1.4 PPP. The performance far exceeded their season average of 1.05 PPP, which ranked as the 5th best in the NBA.

The ball handler’s in the pick-and-roll were used extensively Game 3, but their production was the worst among their playoff games. Through three post-season games, Orlando’s pick-and-roll PPP hasn’t matched their lofty production in the regular season.

The Magic utilized roll men four times in Game 2 but reverted to little use in Game 3. Orlando only used their most potent play on one occasion, a Hedo Turkoglu lob to Dwight Howard in the 1st quarter.

The post-up game for Orlando was successful for the third straight game. The indomitable force, Dwight Howard, was responsible for all seven of Orlando’s post-up buckets. He made four hook shots over Jason Collins, two with each hand. Brandon Bass and Jason Richardson used the other three attempts.

Orlando only managed a single And 1 attempt for the second straight game. Dwight Howard was fouled by 2003 Magic draft pick Zaza Pachulia with two minutes left in the first half.

Orlando was the best team in the NBA after they secured an offensive rebound in the regular season and they have continued this trend through three playoff games. Orlando averaged 1.25 PPP after offensive rebounds in the first game in Atlanta.

One particularly bad area for Orlando was their percentage on transition three-pointers. The team went 1-6, and Quentin Richardson’s make over Pachulia was the only successful attempt.

Hedo shot 3-11 overall and went 1-6 beyond the arc. Among players with 600 or more attempts, only three active players (Ron Artest, Jason Kidd, Stephen Jackson) have a lower career FG% than Hedo does in the playoffs.

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BOX SCORE

The Atlanta Hawks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 88-85 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs. The Hawks are one win away from ending the Magic’s season, and exacting revenge from last year’s sweep in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals. Four free-throws from Joe Johnson helped seal the deal for Atlanta, as they helped to stave off Orlando from coming back and stealing Game 4 on the road. With 10.5 seconds left in regulation and the Magic trailing by three points, the basketball was put in Hedo Turkoglu‘s hands but he was unable to deliver with a game-tying shot to extend the game into overtime. It was a scenario in which Orlando sorely missed Jason Richardson, given that he’s been able to come through in crunch-time situations time and again. The Hawks were led by a balanced attack, as four players scored in double-figures. Jamal Crawford finished with 25 points and six assists, continuing his onslaught in the series as Atlanta’s sixth man. Johnson had 20 points and nine rebounds. Al Horford chipped in with 14 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists, while Kirk Hinrich contributed with 14 points. Dwight Howard had another dominant game, finishing with 29 points, 17 rebounds, and two blocks but a lack of support from his teammates has been the Magic’s downfall. Gilbert Arenas redeemed himself after poor performances in Games 1 and 2, as well as a no-show in Game 3, by putting up 20 points and five rebounds, giving Orlando a much-needed boost on offense even though it was in vain.

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