2010-2011 Player Evaluation: Dwight Howard

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
| 2010-2011 regular season | Dwight Howard |
|---|---|
| Games Played | 78 |
| Minutes Played | 37.6 |
| adj. +/- | +14.09 |
| net +/- | +9.8 |
| statistical +/- | +7.24 |
| PER | 26.0 |
| WARP | 20.5 |
| Win Shares/48 | .236 |

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
| 2010-2011 regular season | Dwight Howard |
|---|---|
| Games Played | 78 |
| Minutes Played | 37.6 |
| adj. +/- | +14.09 |
| net +/- | +9.8 |
| statistical +/- | +7.24 |
| PER | 26.0 |
| WARP | 20.5 |
| Win Shares/48 | .236 |
Via Ken Berger of CBSSports.com:
Of the teams [Dwight] Howard is likely to consider when exercising his early-termination option after next season — sources say the Lakers, Knicks and Nets are the strong favorites — L.A. is the one with the most attractive trade assets. The massive contracts attached to the Lakers’ most desirable players also puts them in the rare position of being able to absorb either [Gilbert] Arenas or [Hedo] Turkoglu as a way to soften the blow for Orlando. [...]
The clincher, under current CBA rules that would govern any trades conducted before the deal expires July 1, would be assembling salaries in a way that would allow Orlando to get out from under their massive and ill-advised obligations to Turkloglu and/or Arenas. In all likelihood, the Lakers are the only team with the salaries and commensurate talent to pull it off.
If you’re the Magic, staring at an uncertain future with limited flexibility to build around Howard, you would feel pretty good about getting one of the world’s most skilled power forwards (Gasol), the only center in the league with the potential to rival Howard (Bynum, with an asterisk due to his history of knee injuries), or the league’s best sixth man (Odom, who has the ability to be so much more as a starter). Any one of them would be a better asset than Cleveland (James), Toronto (Chris Bosh), Denver (Carmelo Anthony), or Utah (Deron Williams) got for its departing superstar. Two of them would be a haul of talent that Magic GM Otis Smith simply wouldn’t be able to turn down.
But wait, there’s more.
I hear all kinds of mixed messages on Howard. One person told me Howard wants to be a Laker. Someone else said he wants Chris Paul to join him in Orlando. Another said his top priority is to sign a maximum contract, which would make a trade (either in-season or a summer 2012 sign-and-trade) the only way for him to land in Los Angeles.
Two plugged-in national reporters. And the words that stands out from their reports are ‘Howard’ and ‘Lakers’ — in the same sentence.
For Magic fans that don’t remember what it was like during the offseason in 1996 when Shaquille O’Neal signed with the Los Angeles Lakers as a free agent, get used to the chatter because it’s not going away any time soon. For Magic fans that do remember, it’s like reliving a nightmare that never ends.
After the Lakers crashed and burned against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Semifinals, in conjunction with the Orlando Magic’s premature exit in the first round of the playoffs at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks, it’s as if the Howard-to-Los Angeles narrative accelerated tenfold.
Right now, the record states that the Magic are a team that’s going nowhere with an MVP-caliber player that can exercise his early-termination option in 2012 while the Lakers, with head coach Phil Jackson’s departure, are in need of a face lift after getting swept by the Mavericks. Enter Howard, speculated by many to be the answer to Los Angeles’ woes.
But let’s take a step back. Until Howard figures out his intentions, one way or the other, the only things that writers and reporters are dealing with is mostly speculation and hearsay. It’s going to take time for the endgame to occur.
That being said, this is only the beginning.
Howard’s future will dominate the headlines in Orlando for the foreseeable future.

Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
With the regular season winding down and the postseason just a mere six days away, I figured I’d do what other writers have been doing lately — reveal my awards ballot. I know that I’m not a member of the Pro Basketball Writers Association, which means I do not have a say in who wins which award but I still wanted to engage in this exercise.
Most Valuable Player
| adj. +/- | net +/- | stat. +/- | PER | WARP | Win Shares/48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | +13.08 | +9.4 | +7.10 | 26.0 | 20.2 | .235 |
| LeBron James | +10.05 | +11.4 | +8.65 | 27.2 | 20.1 | .243 |
| Chris Paul | +18.67 | +11.9 | +9.48 | 24.0 | 16.3 | .238 |
| Derrick Rose | +7.60 | +2.3 | +5.45 | 23.7 | 15.7 | .209 |
| Dwyane Wade | +7.42 | +8.2 | +6.62 | 25.2 | 16.4 | .216 |
With LeBron James teaming up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, coupled with ‘The Decision’ becoming a PR disaster, it’s no surprise that the race for the MVP award was wide-open this season. Voter fatigue was already going to be an issue for James in his quest for a third consecutive MVP, given that not even Michael Jordan accomplished the feat in his career. As such, it was going to take a historical year from James to overcome the many obstacles in his way for him to win the MVP but it didn’t happen. James’ numbers took a small hit across the board, with Wade’s presence being a corollary reason. That allowed a player like Dwight Howard to be his near equal statistically. When looking at their resumes and complete bodies of work, it’s hard not to choose between James or Howard for MVP — there’s no wrong answer between the two them.
Howard gets the nod because of many factors.
The improvements that everyone was waiting for from Howard were fulfilled, as he was able to maintain his efficiency on offense even with a career-high usage rate of 27.2 percent. The sign of a great scorer in the NBA is his ability to be efficient while shouldering a heavy load offensively, and Howard was able to do that this season. And it can’t be understated the type of impact Howard has when he’s not scoring, given that his presence in the low post allows the shooters for the Orlando Magic to enjoy plenty of open looks from the perimeter that wouldn’t come otherwise. Also known as the Shaquille O’Neal effect with Damon Jones as a prime example.
Likewise, Howard is vital to the Magic’s vaunted pick and roll attack that’s anchored by Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, with the threat of him being the roll man making it extremely difficult for opposing defenses to aggressively contain the pick and rolls. With a refined post game and a reliable mid-range jumper from 10-15 feet that he’s making at a rate (40.2 percent) better than the league average (39.4 percent), coupled with an underrated ability to pass out of double-teams effectively, Howard has all the tools offensively. It’s only at the free-throw line where Howard continues to struggle.
Critics are quick to point out Howard’s lack of involvement in crunch-time situations but that’s partly due to his teammates not getting him the basketball enough, plus head coach Stan Van Gundy not calling plays for him at times. Sometimes it’s as simple as Orlando needing a three-point shot in the closing seconds of a game. Even then, Howard’s ability to rebound and defend gets overlooked way too many times in discussions of players performing in the clutch.
And when it comes down to it, there’s not another player in the league that can impact a game defensively like Howard. Despite general manager Otis Smith acquiring acquiring Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas, thus becoming far weaker on defense in theory, the Magic are ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency — better than teams like the Miami Heat — thanks in large part to Howard’s ability to coerce opposing players into shooting jumpshots while limiting their chances at the free-throw line and devouring rebounds. Van Gundy’s schemes are a factor too, but Howard puts it into practice on countless possessions, which is the primary reason that Orlando defends post players better than any other team. Or that Howard is able to slow down a pick and roll, recover to the paint, and provide weak-side defense in one felt swoop. Was it mentioned that the Magic do the best job of limiting field goal attempts at the rim because of Howard’s intimidating presence in the lane? Indeed, Howard is an omnipresent defensive force.
The Orlando Magic were able to defeat the New York Knicks by the score of 111-99 to extend their winning streak to four games. This was a game that went back-and-forth for three quarters before the Magic were able to take control in the fourth quarter, and come away with a double-digit victory. Orlando was led by a balanced attack, with five players scoring in double-figures. Dwight Howard continues his race towards the MVP award, even if he’s seen by many as a longshot to win it, as he finished with 33 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks. The most impressive thing when looking at Howard’s box score wasn’t his point total or even shooting percentage, but his ability to go 11-for-13 from the free-throw line. Howard is already an efficient player by the nature of the types of shots he gets but when he’s making his free-throws, he becomes impossible to contain. The Knicks, especially Amar’e Stoudemire (committed three personal fouls in the fourth quarter trying to defend Howard), found out the hard way. Jameer Nelson had a strong performance with 19 points. Hedo Turkoglu contributed with 16 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists. Brandon Bass had 15 points and seven rebounds, while Jason Richardson chipped in with 12 points and six rebounds. With the win, the Magic inch closer to winning their 50th game of the regular season.

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
I sat down today intent on writing about the question on most of our lips as we watch the Magic these days: Which is the team we’re going to get? Is it the Heat-beaters with an attacking point guard and a dominant center and prolific role players, or is it the lethargic-looking, immature team that lost to the Bulls? I was going to delve in and explore why we can’t expect a consistent product, or even, it seems, a consistent effort. But then I was reading about HeatLockerRoomCryGate, and I saw that the Celtics were the darling of one of the panels at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this past weekend, and I read something about how the Lakers have regained their footing or swagger or something in beating the Spurs. And then I thought about the good Magic or the bad Magic question again. And then I thought: perhaps these things are related.
See, the Magic have fallen into that category of a successful team that has failed its own narrative. That is, we’re talking about a team that stands, as of this writing, at a robust 41-24, on pace to win fifty-plus games and a favorable matchup in the first round of the playoffs, while the tone of commentary around the team remains somewhat negative. You get the sense, listening to the overall national opinion of the team, that the Magic have somehow blown it, have missed their window and will now languish, Hawks-like, in that undesirable middling ground of no-lottery purgatory. And maybe this will happen. I don’t want to be seen as blindly touting the team’s prospects–my first post here at MBN was about the problems that might be an issue in Dwight’s free agency–but I have to believe that the Magic are not, generally speaking, being properly evaluated given the success that they’re having.
This is where the Heat-cryer story, or the Celtics fawning, or the Lakers-got-their-groove-back thinking comes in. This season, more than the past couple that I can remember, has been all about how the realities have played out against the anticipated narratives. Teams aren’t being judged as heavily on basketball as they are the extent to which their basketball fits the stories that have been constructed around them. Talking about a Lakers resurgence is pretty ridiculous–they’re 46-19 and loaded with veterans, directed by a coach who has won the NBA championship more often than he has not in his 20 years. But this was to be the year that Kobe’s legs were healthier and the Lakers’ size dominated the entire league and Jackson’s fourth three-peat would be like Sherman’s March. When we remembered that Kobe has as many games on his legs as any star his age ever has, or that the franchise center is constantly injured, well, then, it was time to brand this season a failure.

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
It’s been said that no one should underestimate the heart of a champion. Or in this case, no one should underestimate the heart of an underdog, as the Orlando Magic were able to defeat the Miami Heat by the score of 99-96 after being down by as many as 24 points in the game — it’s the second-largest comeback victory in franchise history. Not only did the improbable comeback come against the Heat, a rival for the Magic, but it came in a nationally televised game where almost anyone interested in the NBA had their attention focused on the matchup. On a day where people were wondering whether or not Orlando should be taken seriously as the playoffs steadily approach, that question has been answered. The Magic were led by a balanced attack, as five players scored in double-figures. There were those that hoped Dwight Howard would put up a monster performance and continue his surge in the MVP race, but they’ll have to be content with a stat-line of 14 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, and five blocks. However, it’s worth mentioning that Howard was a force defensively in the fourth quarter, as he compiled 10 rebounds and three blocks as Orlando made their comeback charge. Jason Richardson was one of the catalysts in the comeback, as he finished with 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting from the field (6-of-8 from three-point range). Jameer Nelson, too, was integral in the process, as he chipped in with 16 points and seven assists. Ryan Anderson had 15 points, while Gilbert Arenas had 11 points including a sequence where he couldn’t “feel his face” after making two three-pointers in the fourth quarter that tied the game for the Magic and subsequently gave them the lead after trailing for most of the contest. For Orlando, these are the types of games that can energize a roster and reinforce the belief they can beat any team on a given night.
Via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel:
Four months ago, Earl Clark reached a troubling career crossroads. The Phoenix Suns declined to pick up their $2 million option to keep him for the 2011-12 season, an unconventional move that ensured Clark will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Two months ago, the Suns severed their ties with Clark by including him in the blockbuster trade that sent Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu to the Orlando Magic for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus.
These days, much has changed for the young, 6-foot-10 forward.
A few months from now, at playoff time, the Magic might ask Clark to guard power forwards such as Chris Bosh and Kevin Garnett or small forwards such as Carmelo Anthony, Luol Deng, LeBron James and Paul Pierce.
“He doesn’t have the experience of having seen every NBA situation,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said.
“But I think his potential as a defensive player and as a defensive impact guy is unlimited if he can get down some better team defensive principles and focus and if he can truly understand that his route to being a special player in this league lies at the defensive end.”
The final month and a half will be crucial for Clark, who has played in only 19 games for the Magic and played a total of just 60 regular-season games for the Suns.
From now until mid-April, he can prove to his coaches that he can be counted on in crucial situations.
Given that head coach Stan Van Gundy has entrusted Earl Clark to defend the likes of Kevin Durant, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Carmelo Anthony in recent games, this is something to keep an eye on — especially with the playoffs steadily approaching.