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Pythagorean wins is a formula that converts points scored and allowed into a predicted winning percentage. The results can show, among other things, teams that over/under perform, win/lose many close games, or just experience good/bad luck.

To predict an NBA team’s winning percentage, the following calculation is performed:

(Points Scored^16.5) / (Points scored^16.5  + Points allowed^16.5) = Winning Percentage

Approach
This article will focus on the NBA teams with the most total wins over the last four regular seasons (Lakers-236, Celtics-234, Magic-222, Spurs-221, Mavericks-213). The last four seasons are used because:

• Stan Van Gundy’s tenure in Orlando started four years ago (LAL, BOS, SA same coach all four years too)
• Rick Carlisle has coached the Mavericks for three of the last four seasons
• The stars (Howard, Bryant, Duncan, Nowitzki, Garnett, etc.) played with same team entire span

This piece counts a close game as any contest with a final margin of three points or fewer (one possession). A blowout is any contest with a final margin of fifteen points or more (five possessions).

Wins
Only the Timberwolves (do they even count?) have fallen short of their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than the Orlando Magic over the last four seasons. During the same span, Orlando never finished a season with more actual wins than Pythagorean wins.

The Dallas Mavericks check in on the other end of the spectrum as they exceeded their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than any other team (10). As I mentioned in a Hoopdata article, some of the Mavericks’ success can be attributed to their record in close games (34-18). The Mavericks’ scoring differential predicted 203 wins over the last four years, but they actually won 213. On the other hand, Orlando’s scoring differential predicted 232 wins, but they actually won 222.

The Lakers amassed the most regular seasons win during the period, but their Pythagorean win total was equal to Orlando’s. In other words, they were victorious 14 more times than Orlando even though their scoring differentials indicated the same number. The Spurs collected just one fewer win than Orlando, but their scoring differential indicated 14 fewer wins.

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Fernando Medina/Orlando Magic

Via the Orlando Magic:

When it opened last October, Orlando’s Amway Center was widely hailed as the finest arena not only in the NBA, but in all of North America. And largely because of the dazzling new facility – not to mention the game-day promotions and friendly, accessible environment – the Orlando Magic’s overall stadium experience was lauded recently by ESPN The Magazine.

ESPN’s ninth annual Ultimate Standings ranked the Magic’s stadium experience the best in the NBA and fifth overall among all teams from the NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA. The Magic beat out Portland, Memphis, Chicago, San Antonio and Dallas for top honors in the NBA. They trailed only the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins and Pittsburgh Penguins in overall stadium experience among all professional teams.

The Magic continued to score well in the overall rankings and continue to be one of the best franchises in all major sports when it comes to serving their fans.

The Magic ranked as the 16th best franchise overall and fourth best in the NBA when it comes to measuring how much a franchise gives back to fans in exchange for the time and money that they invest. The rankings were devised based on factors such as bang for the buck, fan relations, ownership, affordability, stadium experience, players, coaching and being on track to win a championship.

The Magic continued to earn high marks in several key categories – bang for the buck (fifth among NBA teams), fan relations (sixth among NBA teams), affordability (seventh among NBA teams), stadium experience (first among NBA teams), ownership (seventh among NBA teams), players (12th in the NBA), coaching (ninth in the NBA) and being on a title track (ninth in the NBA).

The Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers won the overall award – one in which the Magic were ranked second a year ago. The San Antonio Spurs were the highest ranked NBA team in the overall standings, ranking fifth this year.

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J.J. Redick plays a solid game, a fluid game, and a game that makes us think we are missing him when he is gone. Those around the league like to say he has a “high basketball IQ.” But does he? It seems that sometimes there are players who can give you positive output in almost every statistical category, but still fail to impact the game the way you want them to.

First we have to define basketball IQ. I hear it a lot when a player makes an unexpectedly good decision, or shows in some way that he schooled himself on his opponent. Generally it means preparedness, or the ability to adapt the rhythm of the game no matter what. Moreover, it means thinking ahead, and being one step ahead of your opponent.

At first glance I would say Redick definitely has a high basketball IQ. But how does this translate to statistics? I break it down into four categories: taking smart shots, making smart passes, playing strong defense, and protecting the ball. Superstar or not, if you can keep those four areas of your game on speed dial, you will do more good than harm for your team.

As for taking smart shots, Redick obviously does not struggle with the temptation to throw up circus shots, or go off shooting fadeaway’s from deep. His shot selection is sound, as evidenced by his .589 True Shooting percentage from this season. In fact, only two Magic players have a better True Shooting percentage than Redick—Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson.

Need a current Eastern Conference Finals contender to compare that to? Kyle Korver currently has a True Shooting percentage of .572, and D-Wade is .581. So yes, Redick shoots for a high percentage, and at 17 percent usage, that is exactly what you need out of him.

Redick’s True Shooting percentage puts him among the leagues top 50 players, so he gets an A in this category.

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As the Oklahoma City Thunder, scheduled to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals later tonight, continue their quest towards progressing to the Finals, it’s hard not to look at the roster constructed by general manager Sam Presti and begin the process of comparing it to another up-and-coming team from back in the day.

With Kevin Durant, the Thunder have their superstar. Their leader. Their face of the franchise.

At the peak of his powers, Durant is one of the best players in the NBA that surely deserves to be mentioned in the same breathe with LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and others.

But what makes Durant a rare commodity is that he’s a star player that is humble, selfless, and extremely team-oriented in every sense of the term. Durant’s latest national advertising campaign with Gatorade is all you need to know about him. The spotlight may be on Durant but he always goes out of his way to include his teammates, like on this year’s NBA preview cover of Sports Illustrated, making sure they’re recognized as well.

Plus, Durant is more than content playing in Oklahoma City, not seeking the limelight of bigger cities like New York and Los Angeles. Durant wants to play basketball, and doesn’t need to do it in a specific media market

Needless to say, Durant is unlike his attention-seeking peers.

Then there’s Russell Westbrook, a player that has blossomed into a star but is still trying to shape himself on the court. Westbrook isn’t perfect and his detractors will remind him every step of the way, as it seems like he’s learning on the job at 100 miles per hour. But Westbrook’s ascent as one of the best point guards has been one of the more notable developments in the league this season.

Westbrook is the ying to Durant’s yang and even though their collective equilibrium on offense sways wildly from side-to-side every so often, more so on Westbrook’s half, there’s no question that they’ve become a dynamic duo at the tender ages of 22.

Those seeking an example for the potential of a perfect symbiotic relationship between Westbrook and Durant should look no further than Game 7 of the 2011 Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies. Westbrook was the playmaker. Durant was the scorer.

Teams around the NBA would kill to be in the Thunder’s position of possessing two young stars with nearly limitless potential.

The Orlando Magic, more than most franchises, can relate to such being in such an envious position. Once upon a time, the Magic were the darlings of the league in the mid-’90s with two young stars en tow — Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway.

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Via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel:

As the franchise attempts to sort out exactly what went wrong, where 2010-11 turned for the worse, they can point to a mystifying playoff shooting slump or to some superb clutch shots by the Atlanta Hawks’ Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson or even to a few unfortunate bounces of the basketball.

But the [Orlando] Magic likely would be better served to recall Dec. 18, the day their team completed two high-risk trades that would define their season and might limit many of their seasons to come.

The team acquired Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from the Phoenix Suns for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first-round pick and cash. The Magic also obtained Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis.

Those deals provided the Magic an immediate short-term infusion of energy and offensive skill that led to a nine-game winning streak in late December and early January. But the longer-term aftereffects weakened Orlando’s defense, put additional pressure on center Dwight Howard and didn’t give the team the additional offensive firepower it needed at playoff time. [...]

[Otis] Smith never could have foreseen that Richardson would get into an altercation with Zaza Pachulia that led to Richardson’s ejection for Game 3′s final minutes and Richardson’s subsequent Game 4 suspension. Smith also can’t be blamed for Richardson stepping on some broken glass while in bare feet last Tuesday, an accident that slowed Richardson in Game 5 and severely hobbled Richardson in Game 6.

Indeed, take away either the altercation or the accident, and the Magic might be preparing now for the playoffs’ second round.

But although Richardson displayed toughness, he didn’t develop into the consistent, dependable second scoring that the Magic needed to complement Howard on offense.

Neither did Turkoglu, who became more of a passer than a shooter after a mesmerizing 17-assist performance on Jan. 8 in Dallas. Indeed, Turkoglu made just over 29 percent of his shots in the playoffs and couldn’t match the quickness and explosiveness of his Atlanta counterpart, Josh Smith.

Starting in the next week or so, the rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a three-part series — specifically by Nate Drexler, Danny Nowell, and myself.

Key events will be analyzed on a macro and micro level.

The macro side of things will encompass general manager Otis Smith’s construction and, in some ways, deconstruction of a franchise that appeared in the 2009 NBA Finals, only to regress the next two years by losing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 and first round in 2011.

The micro side of things will touch on the signing of Rashard Lewis, a player that exemplified the rise and fall of the Magic in many ways. It’s Lewis’ arrival that triggered Orlando’s ascent to being one of the best teams in the NBA and it’s his eventual regression that signaled the end of that run of success. Also, the parallels between LeBron James (as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers) and Dwight Howard will be closely looked at, given that they are two players that have experienced similar career paths with the teams that originally drafted them. And like James, Howard’s future is under an intense microscope, given that everyone is trying to decipher whether he’ll remain with the Magic for the long-term or if he’ll move on and leave.

Stay tuned for these articles.

• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “Dwight Howard now has accomplished something Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo and Hakeem Olajuwon never did. The Orlando Magic center won the 2010-11 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award on Monday and became the first player in league history to receive the honor three years in a row. ‘It’s a great accomplishment,’ Howard said. ‘It’s a blessing. It’s an honor. And I just thank God for this opportunity and just for blessing me with the ability to be able to get stops on the defensive end, block shots, rebound, just do a lot of things and also have this award. Three times in a row is history. I never really thought about it like that until I saw the awards, but I just want to keep it going.’ Howard won this year’s award in a landslide. He earned 114 first-place votes out of 120 ballots cast. Boston Celtics power forward Kevin Garnett finished second. Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler placed third.”
• Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “Atlanta Hawks guard Joe Johnson was a non-factor in last year’s playoff series against the Orlando Magic, shooting 29.8 percent and scoring just 12.8 points per game in the four-game sweep. And now, one year later, he’s the player who hurt the Magic the most in Game 1 by scoring 25 points on 56.3 percent shooting. It’s not like Johnson has evolved as a player in 12 months – his scoring is actually lower this year. And the Hawks are comprised of mostly the same players, so it’s not like he’s getting better looks or less attention from Orlando. So, what’s the difference? The Magic’s primary defender on Johnson last year was Vince Carter, and this year it’s Jason Richardson. Is Carter’s defense that much better than Richardson’s?”
• Do the Orlando Magic have anything to worry about after losing Game 1?
• Dwight Howard achieved a never-before-done feat.
• Mike Prada of SBNation: “Apparently, it is possible for an NBA team to allow a player to score 46 points and be universally praised for it. Dwight Howard ran all over the Atlanta Hawks’ single-coverage, but because nobody else on his team decided to do much of anything, the Hawks came away with a Game 1 victory on the road. Howard and Jameer Nelson scored 73 points; everyone else on the Magic scored 20. Howard and Nelson shot 26-41; everyone else shot 8-34. It was a brilliant strategy by the Hawks to make sure that their horrible teammates had horrible games. Let’s praise them for it! Snark aside, the bottom line is this. Playing Howard straight-up and taking away the three-point shooters is a strategy. Allowing Howard to score 46 points and hope his teammates shoot 8-34 is not. Luckily, the Hawks shot nearly 50 percent from 16-23 feet and made it work. That doesn’t mean it’s a sustainable long-term strategy, but whenever writers are given the chance to question Howard’s worth as a player for being just the 11th player since 1985 to score 45 or more points in a playoff game and lose, they’ll take it.”
• Zach Lowe of The Point Forward: “There’s a reason the Magic ranked third in points allowed per possession and in the top five (per Synergy Sports) in defending pick-and-rolls where the ball-handler finishes the play (first); pick-and-rolls where the roll man finishes (fifth); spot-up chances (fifth) and scoring chances that followed offensive rebounds (first). They managed to do this all without a rotation player any group of league executives would comfortably describe as an above average defender at his position. There’s a reason no team allowed fewer shot attempts at the rim this season. “
• There are skeptics that wonder if the Atlanta Hawks will be able to beat the Magic.
• A great illustration as to the reason Howard won the Defensive Player of the Year award.
• One voter did not have Howard on his ballot for Defensive Player of the Year.
• Steve Aschburner of NBA.com: “The figure on the DPOY trophy, after all, surely is a perimeter guy, squatting down the way Naismith or Wooden would have taught, arms flared out in a defensive stance. Howard, of course, rarely assumes that position; he patrols inside the paint for the Magic, either lurking and banging behind his man, flashing over to give help or licking his chops at the shorties funneled his way by Magic teammates. That’s how he looked at the news conference, looming large, having his guys’ backs.”
• Royce Young of CBSSports.com provides his take on Howard’s impact on defense.
• The Hawks’ win in Game 1 was crazy, but not as crazy as the other first round games.
• M. Haubs of The Painted Area reveals his awards ballot.
• Shannon Booher of SLAM ONLINE marvels at Howard’s Game 1 performance: “Gooooood lawd! As good as he was, that is how bad his teammates (not named Jameer Nelson) were, on offense. And these aren’t playoff newbies. We are talking Hedo [Turkoglu]. Jason Richardson. Gilbert Arenas. The list goes on. Those guys won’t be as bad next game, but Howard probably won’t be as good, either. The Hawks have at least established that they are not going out like they did last year. No brooms here.”
• Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk: “Magic fans don’t want to draw the line connecting the dots. You can’t blame them. But the loss to Atlanta seemed to move those dots toward being in a straight line. And if things don’t change Dwight Howard could connect them himself and devastate the Orlando franchise. The starting point is here: every time Dwight Howard rejects talking in any detail about his future free agent plans — he can opt out in the summer of 2012, but rightfully says that is too far away to think about — he falls back on two themes. One, he really likes Orlando and its fans. Secondly, that he wants to win championships. You can be sure that part two outweighs part one. He has said as much.”

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Via the Orlando Magic:

Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic is the recipient of the 2010-11 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, the NBA announced today. Howard becomes the first player to earn the honor three straight seasons; only Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace, with four each, have won the award more times.

The 6-11 center led the league with 66 double-doubles, including six 20-point/20-rebound efforts, while ranking second in rebounds (14.1 rpg) and fourth in blocks (2.38 bpg). With Howard manning the middle, the Magic allowed 93.5 ppg, ranking fourth in that category. The seventh-year veteran reached several historical milestones this season, including:

• On March 1 vs. New York, Howard, at 25 years and 83 days old, became the youngest player in NBA history to amass 7,000 career rebounds, passing Wilt Chamberlain, who was 26 years and 128 days old when he passed the 7,000-rebound plateau.
• He recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots for the sixth straight year; since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons).
• He became one of only five players in NBA history since blocked shots became an official statistic in 1973-74 to record at least 6,000 rebounds and 1,000 blocked shots in his first 500 games.

As part of its support of the Defensive Player of the Year Award, Kia Motors America will donate a new Kia Sorento CUV to BETA Center, a private, nonprofit organization with 32 years of experience helping families in the greater Orlando area. Kia Motors will present a brand new Sorento to the charity of choice of each of four 2010-11 season-end award winners as part of the “The Kia NBA Performance Awards.” Following this season, Kia Motors will have donated a total of 16 new vehicles to charitable organizations since its support of the NBA’s prestigious year-end honors began with the 2007-2008 season.

Howard received 585 points, including 114 first-place votes, from a panel of 120 sportswriters and broadcasters throughout the United States and Canada. Boston’s Kevin Garnett finished second with 77 points and Dallas’ Tyson Chandler finished third with 70 points. Players were awarded five points for each first-place vote, three points for each second-place vote and one point for each third-place vote received.

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Part I of this mini-series looked at the draft position of players who have recently appeared in the NCAA National Finals. Today, we will look at the teams who pursued these players, and how these players performed in the NBA. Tomorrow, Part III will explore two different one-and-done scenarios, and the NCAA Tournament history of players on top NBA teams. We will also see the “good ol’ days” are aptly named.

Winnersville, U.S.A.
Say what you want about the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they are a bunch of winners (at least on draft night). Since 2005, four of Minnesota’s eleven first round picks have played on NCAA Championship teams. They also picked champions in the second round, netting Mario Chalmers and Chris Richard. These players have not helped Minnesota become a #winning team so far. Actually, Wayne Ellington is the only player among the six still with the Wolves. Two different luminaries, Kevin McHale and David Kahn, have made draft picks for the team during this time.

Ironically, Jerry Sloan and the Utah Jazz welcomed three members of the runner-up 2005 Illinois team to town. They used the third overall pick of the 2005 draft on Deron Williams, and he eventually assisted Sloan’s exit from Salt Lake City. They drafted Dee Brown in the second round of 2006, and Roger Powell signed with the Jazz after his Illinois career.

The Bulls ended up with three members of the 2001 Duke team at various stages of their careers. They drafted Jay Williams second overall in 2002. Two years later, they used a second round pick on Chris Duhon. In the summer of 2010, their decision was signing Carlos Boozer to a five year contract. In total, the Bulls have had eight players from the last eleven champions wear their jersey (Williams, Duhon, Boozer, Joakim Noah, Hakim Warrick, Lonny Baxter, Chris Richard, Ben Gordon).

Five teams (Dallas, San Antonio, Boston, Sacramento, Phoenix) haven’t selected a player who appeared in the National Finals since the turn of the century. It is worth pointing out some of these teams are major players in basketball analytics.

The dichotomy between the Timberwolves draft results and some of the analytical squads’ results leads to an obvious question: do the more analytical teams ignore winners, while teams like Minnesota think winners will bring them out of the basement?

We at least know the Mavericks philosophy. I e-mailed Mavericks owner Mark Cuban yesterday and asked him why his team hasn’t drafted a player from the National Finals since he took over. He just chalked it up to happenstance. He went on to say it is “not intentional at all. We don’t care who they play for.”

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