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A dependent Dwight Howard

Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Let’s imagine you are a casual NBA fan. Instead of watching every minute of each game, you flip through the channels, and mix in some action with American Idol. As the fourth quarter winds down, you check a few scores to find watchable games.

On Wednesday, the late run by Orlando made their game watchable, and fans tuned in to see the MVP candidate fight for a victory. Let’s take a look at Orlando’s final plays:

  • 1:10 remaining in 4th quarter –  Jameer Nelson makes driving layup (82-82)
  • 0:39 remaining in 4th quarter -   Jameer Nelson misses 21-foot jumper (82-84)
  • 0:06 remaining in 4th quarter –  Jameer Nelson misses 5-foot two point shot (82-84)
  • 0:00 remaining in 4th quarter –  Hedo Turkoglu misses 28-foot three pointer (82-85)

There it is. Jameer Nelson’s MVP candidacy goes down in flames.  He missed two game-tying shots, and his teammate Hedo Turkoglu misfired at the buzzer.

In reality, the actual MVP candidate’s impact near the end wasn’t easy to identify on offense. Dwight Howard only touched the ball once in the closing moments. Seriously.

Stan Van Gundy deserves credit, though, for trying to get his best player the ball in crunch time. With 13.0 seconds left, the Magic ran a pick-and-roll with Nelson and Howard. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Dwight is the best roll man in the NBA, averaging 1.45 points per possession. The plan was great, but Jameer kept the ball, and lofted a floater over Jason Collins.

Derrick Rose and LeBron James are Dwight Howard’s main competition in the MVP race. Is there any chance those players don’t attempt a shot at the end a close game?

In fairness, there are plenty of reasons this transpired in Atlanta. First, Howard was in foul trouble, and one more whistle would have ended his night. Maybe the Magic didn’t want to force the ball to Dwight, and potentially lose him for overtime? Second, Dwight wasn’t playing great, and even if he was, it is impossible to find your best player all the time.

Furthermore, basketball is a beautiful combination of offense and defense, and one could argue Dwight could have made his final impact on the defensive end.

However, the final minutes of Wednesday’s game shed a different light on the MVP race. On offense, Dwight Howard is more dependent on external factors than other candidates, and it is no fault of his own. His position demands his presence down low, and his teammates are responsible for passing him the ball.

Derrick Rose and LeBron James can hold the rock in tight games, and guarantee themselves the final shot. Tom Thibodeau and Erik Spoelstra have some say, but players make the final decision. The ball is in their hands. The ball is in Dwight’s hands if his teammates pass him the ball, or if he works his tail off and secures an offensive rebound.

Many people watch the closing minutes and witness the important shots. If they don’t catch the games live, they tune in to the post-game shows and see the final seconds replayed.

A common belief is the best player gets the last look on offense. On the final play versus the Hawks, Dwight Howard set screens. A great screen could be the most impactful action on the floor, but they don’t garner the same attention as a buzzer beater.

What should fans think about Dwight Howard if they only saw the final moments in Atlanta? Is he the third of fourth option for Orlando?

Recap: Atlanta Hawks 85, Orlando Magic 82

AP Photo/Rich Addicks

BOX SCORE

In a first round playoff preview between rivals from the Southeast Division, the Atlanta Hawks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 85-82. With the victory, the Hawks win the season series 3-1 — a complete reversal of fortune from the previous season when the Magic had their way against them in the regular season and the postseason. Like Orlando’s game against the New York Knicks, this game went down to the wire. With less than a minute to go in the fourth quarter, Jameer Nelson was able to make a layup in the lane to tie things up at 82. On the ensuing possession, Atlanta ran a 1/2 pick and roll with Kirk Hinrich and Joe Johnson, an excellent play-call by head coach Larry Drew, and Johnson was able to exploit the confusion in pick and roll coverage by Nelson and Jason Richardson, waltzing his way into the paint for a floater. The shot gave the Hawks a two-point lead, but the Magic still had a chance to tie or take the lead depending on preference. Head coach Stan Van Gundy drew up a play during Orlando’s timeout for Nelson, given that he had success throughout the evening in exploiting Atlanta’s perimeter defense off the dribble. The Magic ran a 1/5 pick and roll with Nelson and Dwight Howard, with Nelson attacking the basket and putting up a floater. But Nelson missed the shot and Jason Collins retrieved the rebound for the Hawks. It’s blind luck for Orlando that Collins rebounded the basketball because he was immediately fouled and given that he’s a poor free-throw shooter, the percentages were not in his favor to make both free-throws and ice the game. Collins badly missed the first free-throw, but made the second to give Atlanta a three-point lead with 5.7 seconds left in regulation. Van Gundy called another timeout, drawing up a play for Hedo Turkoglu. Some questioned whether or not the Hawks were going to foul, given that they were up by three points with roughly five seconds left in the fourth quarter. Usually that’s the time to foul, but Atlanta chose not to. Richardson got the ball at the top of the key and almost hesitated, seemingly as if he was waiting for the Hawks to foul but they didn’t. Richardson let a few seconds go by, then passed the basketball to Turkoglu as he was coming around a screen at the three-point line. Turkoglu caught the ball, but missed the shot and the Hawks won. It was poor execution by the Magic and it’s hard to believe they couldn’t have gotten a better look at a three-pointer.

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Dwight Howard in slow motion

Tuesday’s Magic Word

  • Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel; “The mounting odds and the New York Knicks were too much to overcome for the Orlando Magic – or what was left of them. The Magic had only eight players available in the second half, and fell to the struggling Knicks 113-106 Monday night in overtime at Madison Square Garden. They also lost Dwight Howard in the extra period after he fouled out and picked up his 17th technical foul (one more tech and he will be suspended for a game). ‘It was tough after that,’ coach Stan Van Gundy said. Howard protested his sixth foul on an offensive rebound with one minute, 17 seconds left, and Orlando behind 108-106. He angrily flung the ball to the other end of the floor. ‘It was one of those crazy games,’ Magic point guard Chris Duhon. How crazy? Duhon injured his right thumb and was unable to play in the second half, leaving the Magic (47-27) with only one point guard — Gilbert Arenas — and just eight players. Arenas, subbing for Jameer Nelson (sprained knee), made his first start for the Magic and scored just nine points on 2-of-11 shooting.”
  • Gilbert Arenas had a chance to shine against the New York Knicks, and blew it.
  • Britt Robson of Sports Illustrated: “Monday’s loss to the Knicks made it plain that the Magic have glaring depth problems at point guard as well as center. With Jameer Nelson sidelined with a sprained knee, coach Stan Van Gundy went with Gilbert Arenas and Chris Duhon at the point. It’s a strategy that will be akin to playing Russian roulette with Orlando’s season if Van Gundy repeats it in the playoffs. The pair managed to get Dwight Howard enough touches for just two shots in the first half against an opponent that didn’t play a legitimate center the entire night. Right now, it appears that the productive part of Arenas’ career is toast. Along with an inability to set up Howard, he shot 2-of-11, which is actually an improvement on his 1-of-12 performance in his previous game (for the season, he is at 36.4 percent). And in March, Arenas has more turnovers than assists. Turnovers are also a problem for Duhon, who is committing them at an incredibly high rate of 32.7 per 100 plays. Duhon missed the second half against New York with a bruised thumb, leaving Arenas as the only healthy point guard.”
  • Matt Moore of CBSSports.com on Dwight Howard’s sixth foul against the Knicks: “You can definitely argue that Howard is being fouled simultaneously by Chauncey Billups. But you can’t argue that that’s not a foul on Howard for shoving Stoudemire in the face, just as you can’t argue that MVP’s should be picking up technicals which can result in suspensions during the stretch run to the playoffs, just as you can’t argue Howard should be surprised at this point by either the officials’ calls or their reaction to his protests over their calls. It wasn’t a phantom foul. Stan Van Gundy and Howard have a legitimate case that Howard doesn’t get the calls he should during the game, but it’s impossible to argue that Howard didn’t commit a foul on this play. A tough break for the Magic on a night full of them.”
  • The Magic’s defense faltered last night.
  • Head coach Stan Van Gundy is sick and tired of the coverage surrounding the Miami Heat and New York.
  • The Knicks won an ugly game yesterday.
  • It turns out that points in the paint doesn’t correlate to highly-efficient NBA offenses.
  • Dan Devine of Ball Don’t Lie revisits Carmelo Anthony’s tripping antics in overtime: “On the other hand, however, it was clear watching in real-time (and even clearer running the play back now in the clip above) that Carmelo reached out, grabbed [Jason] Richardson‘s leg, then hit the deck after Richardson responded, but the officials only penalized the retaliation. The whistle waved off a Hedo Turkoglu 3-pointer at the other end of the court that would have tied the game with 51.8 seconds left in overtime. Instead, New York was handed the ball with a 3-point lead that they’d never relinquish, as Orlando failed to score another point.”
  • Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook: “During their game against the New York Knicks, the Orlando Magic found themselves down three points with about 40 seconds left as they secured the defensive rebound. After some ball movement and scrambling by the defense, the Magic had Amar’e Stoudemire covering Hedo Turkoglu. As Turkoglu tried to take advantage the defense collapsed on him. However, instead of kicking it out, he settled for the contested jumper.”

Recap: New York Knicks 113, Orlando Magic 106 (OT)

AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

BOX SCORE

On a night where people could have mistakenly confused the quality of officiating in a regulation NBA game for some of the sketchy refereeing that plagued the 2011 NCAA Tournament in the early rounds, the New York Knicks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 113-106 in overtime. The loss snaps a five-game winning streak for the Magic. Normally, refs have little impact in the outcome of a game because, ultimately, it comes down to the players and coaches to come away with a result one way or the other. But it’s hard to ignore shoddy calls made by the officials late in the fourth quarter, as well as overtime, that aided in Orlando’s inability to come away with a victory. More on that later. The Knicks were led by a fantastic performance from Carmelo Anthony, as he finished with 39 points (on 12-of-26 shooting from the field) and 10 rebounds. Anthony’s lack of enthusiasm to play defense is well-documented in the league, but his activity on that end of the floor was fantastic. Anthony put forth an honest effort defensively, and his teammates were quick to follow his lead. Although New York still gave up more than 100 points, the commitment to playing defense was there. The Magic were led by a balanced attack, as five players scored in double-figures. Dwight Howard finished with 29 points and 18 rebounds. Jason Richardson stepped up, especially in crunch-time, and dropped 24 points. Hedo Turkoglu was masterful, once again, with 18 points and four assists. Brandon Bass had 14 points, while Ryan Anderson had 10 points. A big problem for Orlando was that they played short-handed. Not only was Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, and Quentin Richardson sidelined with injuries, but Chris Duhon jammed his right thumb and was unable to return after the second quarter, leaving head coach Stan Van Gundy with seven rotation players. Unfortunately for the Magic, that wasn’t the end of the bad news.

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Orlando’s Dwight Howard named NBA Eastern Conference Player of the Week for NBA-high sixth time this season

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Via the Orlando Magic:

The Orlando Magic’s Dwight Howard was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week for games played Monday, Mar. 21, through Sunday, Mar. 27. It marks the sixth time this season, which is an NBA-high (LeBron James-5; Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade-4), and the 17th time of his career that Howard has earned the league’s top weekly honor.

Howard led the Magic to a 3-0 week and helped push the team to its fifth consecutive victory, which is Orlando’s third longest winning streak of the season and is tied for the longest active winning streak in the Eastern Conference. Howard averaged 27.3 points (third in the East), an NBA-high 14.3 rebounds per game and shot .717 (27-of-38) from the field, which was also tops in the league. He also ranked first in the East in blocks (3.3 blkpg.) and second in steals per contest (2.3 stlpg.). Howard tallied double-doubles in each of the Magic’s three contests, extending his franchise record double-double streak to 30 games (Jan. 21-present) and led the team in scoring and rebounding in all three games.

In addition, on Mar. 21 at Cleveland, Howard recorded 28 points, 18 rebounds, four blocks, four assists and four steals. According to ESPN, he became the first player since Hakeem Olajuwon over 21 years ago to record those numbers in a single game (Olajuwon tallied 29 points, 18 rebounds, 11 blocks, 10 assists and five steals on Mar. 3, 1990 in a victory over Golden State).

Here is a recap of the week for Howard:

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Mar. 21 @ Cleveland: Posted 28 points, 18 rebounds, four blocks, four assists and four steals in a 97-86 win over the Cavaliers.
Mar. 23 @ New York: Poured in 33 points to go along with 11 rebounds, three blocks and two assists in a 111-99 win at New York.
Mar. 25 vs. New Jersey: Tallied 21 points, 14 rebounds, three blocks and two steals in a 95-85 victory over the Nets.

Stan Van Gundy, Derrick Rose, and the MVP race

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Stan Van Gundy made waves Wednesday when he told reporters asking about the MVP race, “I don’t think it’s wide open. The media seems to have made their decision, and they’re the ones that vote. Derrick Rose has it. I haven’t really read or heard a media guy who is going another way at this point.” It’s almost old news, now, as the quote has been extensively covered, but what Stan is tapping into here is the reason the MVP discussion is one of my least favorite parts of the NBA season. I might be starting to sound like a broken record here, but the essence of Stan’s quote, and the truth of the MVP race, is that it is a media award for media-manufactured stories and hardly valuable at all as a reflection of actual player value, but is instead a reflection on which players fulfill the narratives about them.

First, just to do it, I will poke Rose lovers in the eye and give my two cents as far as his MVP candidacy is concerned: It seems sort of crazy. Like, pretty crazy. I’m particularly swayed by John Hollinger’s point that Rose is the best offensive player on a mediocre offensive team, and the worst defensive player on a fantastic defensive team. Of course Rose is a huge part of the Bulls success–I do think, on balance, he is their best player–but to say that the team’s strength is about Rose’s particular skills seems misguided. In truth, I can’t think of one single thing about Rose’s game that elevates him above anyone else in the top level of NBA production. He’s not a top ten player in effective field goal percentage, True Shooting percentage, or Player Efficiency Rating; he ranks behind ostensible gunner Russell Westbrook and the immortal Jose Calderon in assist percentage. His Offensive Rating is not in the top twenty. He does not even play the most minutes on his own team. Or, what about this argument: Could you get Kevin Durant, straight-up, for Derrick Rose? Never. KD is, lest anybody forget, leading the league in scoring for a second consecutive season, and he is less than a week older than Derrick Rose. Could you get Dwight Howard, straight-up, for Derrick Rose? Hardly. League-wide, Dwight is second in rebounds, first in blocks, second in Player Efficiency Rating, second in effective field goal percentage, second in Win Shares per 48 minutes. He scores roughly two fewer points per game than Derrick with a usage rate nearly seven percentage points lower. I won’t go as far as Tom Ziller’s persuasive, well-reasoned argument that Rose is giving the Bulls something like what Westbrook is giving the Thunder, but my point is this: Derrick Rose, having a fantastic season for a great team, has not distinguished himself in any discernible way from the rest of the NBA elite.

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Thursday’s Magic Word

  • Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “I planned to write a long-form, detailed look at why Dwight Howard is a more deserving Most Valuable Player than Derrick Rose this morning. In a nutshell, I felt Howard’s presence on both offense and defense was being overshadowed by Rose’s more entertaining story — the young point guard carrying a team of veterans to the conference’s best record is more riveting than the dependable, rock-solid big man making up for his team’s defensive deficiencies to finish fourth in the East. But after what’s happened on the blogs and Twitter today, that argument is played out. While the mainstream media is whole-heartedly behind Rose — as Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy correctly said yesterday — some of the Internet’s most-respected writers have put their support behind the Magic’s superstar center.”
  • Maybe next year for Dwight Howard and the MVP award?
  • Players for the Orlando Magic will grow beards from now until the season is over.
  • Brandon Bass and Gilbert Arenas stood out for their defense last night against the New York Knicks.
  • Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie: “This won’t be a terrible miss, handing the MVP to Rose and passing over Dwight Howard. Rose’s all-around play and leadership abilities make him a worthy MVP candidate, and Howard is not without fault. Defending MVP LeBron James misses that party mainly because of his failures this season in terms of leadership and clutch play. With a bit of creativity and less passive/aggressive posturing, James could have led his Miami Heat to the best record in the NBA. Instead, he fell back on bad habits and dribbled that MVP award away.”
  • More on the Magic growing playoff beards.
  • It’ll be interesting to see Howard with a beard.
  • Howard is running away with the most dunks in the NBA.
  • Adam Figman of SLAM ONLINE: “On the other side of the country, the Knicks confirmed the fact that, thus far, Denver has gotten the winning side of that little deal the two teams made a few weeks back. New York continued its now-two-week stammer, falling to the Magic at home after Orlando shut them down with a strong fourth quarter. As would be expected, Dwight Howard (33 points, 11 boards, 3 blocks) beasted, and every other Magic starter scored in double figures as well. Carmelo Anthony played modestly and led the Knicks with 24, but it was Amar’e Stoudemire who didn’t come through at all, scoring only 13 on 6-20 shooting from the field.”
  • Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk: “The guy who will come in second in the MVP balloting this season is Dwight Howard, but statistics and Stan Van Gundy say he is more deserving. (To be up front, if I had a vote this would be my guy.) He is averaging 23.1 points and 14.2 rebounds a game shooting 60 percent (Rose is 44 percent), but he is also the primary reason the Magic are an elite defensive team. He is integral to everything the Magic do. Where are the Magic without Howard?”
  • More on the beards.
  • Howard dominated the Knicks in yesterday’s game.

Recap: Orlando Magic 111, New York Knicks 99

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

BOX SCORE

The Orlando Magic were able to defeat the New York Knicks by the score of 111-99 to extend their winning streak to four games. This was a game that went back-and-forth for three quarters before the Magic were able to take control in the fourth quarter, and come away with a double-digit victory. Orlando was led by a balanced attack, with five players scoring in double-figures. Dwight Howard continues his race towards the MVP award, even if he’s seen by many as a longshot to win it, as he finished with 33 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks. The most impressive thing when looking at Howard’s box score wasn’t his point total or even shooting percentage, but his ability to go 11-for-13 from the free-throw line. Howard is already an efficient player by the nature of the types of shots he gets but when he’s making his free-throws, he becomes impossible to contain. The Knicks, especially Amar’e Stoudemire (committed three personal fouls in the fourth quarter trying to defend Howard), found out the hard way. Jameer Nelson had a strong performance with 19 points. Hedo Turkoglu contributed with 16 points, 11 rebounds, and four assists. Brandon Bass had 15 points and seven rebounds, while Jason Richardson chipped in with 12 points and six rebounds. With the win, the Magic inch closer to winning their 50th game of the regular season.

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Linking the NCAA Tournament and NBA together, Part III

Photo by Flickr/mcdonaldsallamericangames

In Part I, we discussed the idea of teams drafting winners. Part II looked at the teams who drafted winners, and how the players performed in the NBA.

Part III will explore two different one-and-done scenarios, and the NCAA Tournament history of players on top NBA teams. We will also see the “good ol’ days” are aptly named.

One-and-done and one-and-done
Before the NBA outlawed entering the draft right after high school, many players made the leap from prep-to-pro. The only March Madness footage you’ll see of Dwight Howard and LeBron James is during their McDonald’s commercial. We won’t hear highlights of Gus Johnson screaming “rise and fire!” before Kobe Bryant nailed a game winner. It’s sad these players were never part of March Madness. Fortunately, the restrictions on draft eligibility have led some NBA stars to the Big Dance.

The NBA’s leading scorer, Kevin Durant, steered Texas to the tournament in 2007, but that was about it.  The Longhorns beat New Mexico State in round one, and lost their next game. In the 2008 Final Four, Derrick Rose and Memphis toppled the UCLA Bruins, who featured Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook.  Rose came close to a title, but his team lost a late lead two days later in the championship game. Highlight machine Blake Griffin reached the Elite Eight in his final collegiate season before falling to North Carolina.

Other NBA greats went to college before the restrictions were in place, but they didn’t cut down the nets either. Dwyane Wade led the Marquette Golden Eagles to the 2003 Final Four, but was knocked out by Kansas. Tim Duncan reached the Elite Eight at Wake Forest, but Chris Paul never made it past the Sweet 16 as a Demon Deacon. Shaquille O’Neal, one of the most intimidating players of all time, met kryptonite in three straight NCAA Tournaments and never advanced past the second round.

Failing to stand on stage with Jim Nantz wasn’t the end of the world for these guys. Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal both boast four NBA rings and will be remembered as two of the best players ever. Dwyane Wade won a ring with Miami, and Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose are positioning themselves for some jewelry.

The basic structure of the tournament is the simplest explanation for these all-time greats never winning an NCAA championship. The one-and-done format essentially caters to underdogs, as the randomness of single elimination allows many inferior teams to advance. Sustaining tremendous performance throughout a series is much more difficult and is a major reason the best NBA teams usually meet in June.

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