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Looking a franchise in the mirror

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As the Oklahoma City Thunder, scheduled to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals later tonight, continue their quest towards progressing to the Finals, it’s hard not to look at the roster constructed by general manager Sam Presti and begin the process of comparing it to another up-and-coming team from back in the day.

With Kevin Durant, the Thunder have their superstar. Their leader. Their face of the franchise.

At the peak of his powers, Durant is one of the best players in the NBA that surely deserves to be mentioned in the same breathe with LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and others.

But what makes Durant a rare commodity is that he’s a star player that is humble, selfless, and extremely team-oriented in every sense of the term. Durant’s latest national advertising campaign with Gatorade is all you need to know about him. The spotlight may be on Durant but he always goes out of his way to include his teammates, like on this year’s NBA preview cover of Sports Illustrated, making sure they’re recognized as well.

Plus, Durant is more than content playing in Oklahoma City, not seeking the limelight of bigger cities like New York and Los Angeles. Durant wants to play basketball, and doesn’t need to do it in a specific media market

Needless to say, Durant is unlike his attention-seeking peers.

Then there’s Russell Westbrook, a player that has blossomed into a star but is still trying to shape himself on the court. Westbrook isn’t perfect and his detractors will remind him every step of the way, as it seems like he’s learning on the job at 100 miles per hour. But Westbrook’s ascent as one of the best point guards has been one of the more notable developments in the league this season.

Westbrook is the ying to Durant’s yang and even though their collective equilibrium on offense sways wildly from side-to-side every so often, more so on Westbrook’s half, there’s no question that they’ve become a dynamic duo at the tender ages of 22.

Those seeking an example for the potential of a perfect symbiotic relationship between Westbrook and Durant should look no further than Game 7 of the 2011 Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies. Westbrook was the playmaker. Durant was the scorer.

Teams around the NBA would kill to be in the Thunder’s position of possessing two young stars with nearly limitless potential.

The Orlando Magic, more than most franchises, can relate to such being in such an envious position. Once upon a time, the Magic were the darlings of the league in the mid-’90s with two young stars en tow — Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway.

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The ever-important amnesty clause

Via Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel:

The Orlando Magic are in somewhat of a financial bind, but the new collective bargaining agreement could provide some relief.

As the NBA and the players’ union continue to negotiate terms of the new CBA, a couple of recent proposals could give the Magic salary relief and provide Dwight Howard with a significant incentive to stay in Orlando if the proposals are eventually agreed upon.

While these provisions would also help other teams, the Magic would welcome any assistance in rectifying their dire financial situation and acquiring some salary flexibility. […]

Marc Stein of ESPN.com said the league’s recent proposal “called for the ability for each team to shed one contract outright before next season through a one-time amnesty provision that wipes that contract off a team’s books — even though the player must still be paid — reminiscent of a similar provision in the summer of 2005.”

This, of course, is music to the ears of Magic fans desperate to get Gilbert Arenas’ behemoth contract off the books. Would Otis Smith ditch Arenas — someone he shares a close relationship with — to lessen the Magic’s future payroll? It’d take a small amount of pride swallowing, but it’d be difficult for Smith to keep Arenas around if the amnesty clause is in option.

Important to note: In 2005, a team was not allowed to re-sign a player it used the amnesty clause on. So if Smith chose to waive Arenas, he would be ending their professional relationship in Orlando.

If the Orlando Magic want any hope of salvaging their ability to reconstruct an elite team and championship contender around Dwight Howard before it’s too late, the proposed amnesty clause could be general manager Otis Smith’s get-out-of-jail-free card.

It’s no secret that Gilbert Arenas has one of the worst contacts in the NBA, if not the worst, and for the Magic to potentially have the ability to release him outright with no penalty against the luxury tax (he would still be paid by the franchise) like the 2005 rule would be a huge step in the right direction in fixing the roster. The question, of course, is what are the odds the amnesty clause sees the light of day in the new collective bargaining agreement?

According to Larry Coon, the preeminent CBA expert, the chances are high.

If Smith decides to waive Arenas, then only Hedo Turkoglu‘s contract would be left to be dealt with. And needless to say, Turkoglu’s contract — which has three years remaining in shelf life but is partially unguaranteed in its final year — is far easier to move in theory if its decided that change is needed at the small forward position.

It’s quite possible that, somehow, someway, Smith may be able to undo his mistakes and get rid of two albatross contracts in Arenas and Turkoglu this offseason. There’s no guarantee that happens but it’s certainly of occurring within the realm of reality. As such, Magic fans should keep an eye out on what happens with the new CBA.

It might save Orlando’s future.

What went wrong for the Orlando Magic, Part II

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a two-part series — here’s Part II.

As the Magic continue to face their uncertain near-future, I’m thinking about something I imagine a lot of us are: John Milton. Specifically, I’m thinking about Paradise Lost, his account of Adam and Eve’s expulsion from Eden. It seems to me that Magic nation probably feels how Adam and Eve did shortly after God exposed the whole apple/fig leaf-clothing fiasco: “We had it all, and we blew it somehow, and now we need to figure out who to blame. Also, I hate snakes.” Yeah, verily, fellow Magic watchers, we have dined on the ambrosia of celestial basketball, have stared lovingly into the pond at our reflections as Eve did, contemplating how nice it was to be a perennial contender. And now we must make our way into the less hospitable basketball wilderness, to try and figure out how to reclaim that divinity.

There is a strain of criticism in Paradise Lost readers that says that Adam and Eve did us all a solid by getting kicked out of Eden–their screw-up, basically, gave us life as we know it. It’s a pleasant take on the notion of original sin, usually called the fortunate fall. By sinning their way out of Eden,  Adam and Eve became people, and exposed the rest of the race to all the goods and bads that come with the territory. For the Magic, our fortunate fall was Rashard Lewis.

You remember that sign-and-trade. The Magic were getting a 27-year-old inside/outside player, the Sonics’ career leader in three-pointers, a player who had scored more than 20 points per game for three straight seasons and was coming of a career high in that department. Of the trade, Stan Van Gundy said, ”It really makes our roster very, very good.  And even more than that, what this says to me and what our organization has done with Rashard shows me and should show everyone out there how committed this organization is to winning and winning a championship.”

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3-on-3 roundtable: The past, present, and future of the Orlando Magic

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It’s May and the Orlando Magic aren’t playing basketball right now.

Weird.

The last time the Magic weren’t playing basketball in May was in 2007 when they were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the first round, which was Brian Hill’s final year as the head coach. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy arrived, Orlando became accustomed to continuing their season beyond April to the months of May and June but not this time around.

Instead, the Magic are spectators and sitting at home after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

As such, it seems appropriate to look back at what happened in the postseason for Orlando and chime in on Dwight Howard‘s future with the franchise. So without further ado, welcome to Magic Basketball’s first in-house roundtable discussion.

Credit goes to Matt Scribbins for the questions.

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If ifs and buts were candy and Zaza head-butts, the Magic would still be in the playoffs. What is your #1 if?

Nate Drexler: It would have been nice to see a healthy Magic team in the playoffs. If Gilbert Arenas was at 100 percent for the second half of the season, for instance, things would have played out differently. I only say it because Hibachi is a tremendous player, and the reason so many people are frustrated with his huge contract and poor play is they know what a huge impact he can have on a team.  As for this season, he was dead wood. That is why my biggest “if” is having Gilbert mentally and physically peaked for the playoffs.

Danny Nowell: The biggest if, for me, is what if Hedo Turkoglu had been the same Hedo Turkoglu that propelled the 2009 run. I know, I know, it’s easy to make him a scapegoat—and it’s not like he’s getting younger, so maybe his decline is strictly about aging—but what else would the Magic have realistically been able to get that they needed? Jameer [Nelson] showed up in spurts, Dwight had an historically good series; I think the key could have been a big ball handler that was aggressive when he needed to be and a creator when he didn’t. Hedo’s play was almost the direct inverse of that.

Matt Scribbins: The Magic would still be in the playoffs if they had a legitimate option on offense besides Dwight Howard. With help from the Basketball Reference database, I learned only seven players since 1947 have made 20 or fewer shots while attempting 68+ in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu did just that this post-season and bricked his way into the record books.  Hedo, one of the worst shooters in NBA playoff history, actually out did himself and provided his worst playoff shooting performance ever.

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What went wrong for the Orlando Magic, Part I

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a two-part series — here’s Part I.

“What went wrong” is far less important right now than “what is going to happen next” for the Orlando Magic, but you cannot really answer the second question without giving a good look at the first. LeBron James’ trajectory and departure from Cleveland provides a significant blueprint for what to expect from Dwight this summer, and it does not look pretty.

I remember the 2009 season vividly. That fall I was meandering around the web, looking at preseason acquisitions and making predictions when certain names would stand out.

I raised my eyebrows when I saw the Cavs picked up Mo Williams, and then made a call to a friend of mine back home in St. Louis. Even though it had been a few weeks since the last time we caught up, the beginning of the conversation went something like this:

“Hello.”

“Uh, did you see that Cleveland got Mo Williams?”

“Oh, they did? Huh…”

“Dude, I think Lebron is going to get a ring this year.”

Obviously Mo Williams was not the reason the Cavs made a run at the Eastern Conference Finals, but here’s the point: When you have a superstar as your centerpiece, the rest becomes a chess game, and the winner of the game is the owner who can put the right pieces in place around your guy.

At that moment in the fall of 2008, I thought Dan Gilbert had done it, or at least had come close.

Since that move, Gilbert didn’t do a whole lot to improve LeBron’s situation. The Antawn Jamison pickup had moments of looking like a good move, but for the remainder of LeBron’s tenure as a Cav, Gilbert watched clumsily as LeBron kept being LeBron, kept empowering guys like Delonte West to max potential, and then fizzle out in the playoffs.

It is a sad story for Cleveland, but the demise of the Cavs and the departure of LeBron might have paved the way for guys like Dwight to have a much easier time come “decision time.”

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Dwight Howard’s future under the microscope

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Via Ken Berger of CBSSports.com:

Of the teams [Dwight] Howard is likely to consider when exercising his early-termination option after next season — sources say the Lakers, Knicks and Nets are the strong favorites — L.A. is the one with the most attractive trade assets. The massive contracts attached to the Lakers’ most desirable players also puts them in the rare position of being able to absorb either [Gilbert] Arenas or [Hedo] Turkoglu as a way to soften the blow for Orlando. [...]

The clincher, under current CBA rules that would govern any trades conducted before the deal expires July 1, would be assembling salaries in a way that would allow Orlando to get out from under their massive and ill-advised obligations to Turkloglu and/or Arenas. In all likelihood, the Lakers are the only team with the salaries and commensurate talent to pull it off.

If you’re the Magic, staring at an uncertain future with limited flexibility to build around Howard, you would feel pretty good about getting one of the world’s most skilled power forwards (Gasol), the only center in the league with the potential to rival Howard (Bynum, with an asterisk due to his history of knee injuries), or the league’s best sixth man (Odom, who has the ability to be so much more as a starter). Any one of them would be a better asset than Cleveland (James), Toronto (Chris Bosh), Denver (Carmelo Anthony), or Utah (Deron Williams) got for its departing superstar. Two of them would be a haul of talent that Magic GM Otis Smith simply wouldn’t be able to turn down.

But wait, there’s more.

Via J.A. Adande of ESPN.com:

I hear all kinds of mixed messages on Howard. One person told me Howard wants to be a Laker. Someone else said he wants Chris Paul to join him in Orlando. Another said his top priority is to sign a maximum contract, which would make a trade (either in-season or a summer 2012 sign-and-trade) the only way for him to land in Los Angeles.

Two plugged-in national reporters. And the words that stands out from their reports are ‘Howard’ and ‘Lakers’ — in the same sentence.

For Magic fans that don’t remember what it was like during the offseason in 1996 when Shaquille O’Neal signed with the Los Angeles Lakers as a free agent, get used to the chatter because it’s not going away any time soon. For Magic fans that do remember, it’s like reliving a nightmare that never ends.

After the Lakers crashed and burned against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Semifinals, in conjunction with the Orlando Magic’s premature exit in the first round of the playoffs at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks, it’s as if the Howard-to-Los Angeles narrative accelerated tenfold.

Right now, the record states that the Magic are a team that’s going nowhere with an MVP-caliber player that can exercise his early-termination option in 2012 while the Lakers, with head coach Phil Jackson’s departure, are in need of a face lift after getting swept by the Mavericks. Enter Howard, speculated by many to be the answer to Los Angeles’ woes.

But let’s take a step back. Until Howard figures out his intentions, one way or the other, the only things that writers and reporters are dealing with is mostly speculation and hearsay. It’s going to take time for the endgame to occur.

That being said, this is only the beginning.

Howard’s future will dominate the headlines in Orlando for the foreseeable future.

Orlando’s Dwight Howard headlines 2010-11 NBA All-Defensive First Team

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Via the Orlando Magic:

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, winner of the last three Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Awards, headlines the NBA All-Defensive First Team, the NBA announced today. Howard totaled 56 points overall, including 27 First Team votes.

Howard earned the 2010-11 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, becoming the first player to win the award three straight seasons. He led the league with 66 double-doubles, while ranking second in rebounds (14.1 rpg) and fourth in blocks (2.38 bpg). He recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots for the sixth straight year; since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons). With Howard manning the middle, the [Orlando] Magic allowed 93.5 ppg, ranking fourth in that category.

Also selected to the All-Defensive First Team are guard Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics (39 points), forward LeBron James of the Miami Heat (38 points), forward Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics (33 points) and guard Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers (33 points). Garnett and Bryant each earn All-Defensive First Team honors for the ninth time, tying Michael Jordan and Gary Payton for the most in NBA history.

The NBA All-Defensive Second Team consists of guards Tony Allen of the Memphis Grizzlies and Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets, center Tyson Chandler of the Dallas Mavericks, forward Andre Iguodala of the Philadelphia 76ers and forward-center Joakim Noah of the Chicago Bulls.

The voting panel consisted of the NBA’s 30 head coaches, who were asked to select NBA All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position. Coaches were not permitted to vote for players from their own team. Two points were awarded for a First Team vote and one point was awarded for a Second Team vote.

Dwight Howard, fourth quarters, and the truth

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

There once was a man made of brick-and-mortar,
but his role diminished in the 4th quarter.
He will be remembered as an all-time great,
but you’d never guess it from his usage rate.

Today, I stumbled upon a poem I wrote a while ago (yesterday), and it compelled me to explore Dwight Howard’s usage rate in the 4th quarter with the help of StatsCube.

Orlando’s center boasted the NBA’s 19th highest usage rate (possessions used while on floor) during the 2010-2011 regular season, but his rate plummeted in the final period of the game. Some other key statistics indicate Dwight was at his best in the 4th quarter.

Green indicates at least 10% greater than average. Red indicates at least 10% below average.

However, maybe his stats are just a classic case of a reduced usage rate coinciding with more efficient performance? Let’s explore possible explanations for why the MVP candidate’s usage rate decreased in the final frame.

Dwight struggled at the stripe
Dwight averaged 11.2 free throw attempts per 36 minutes in the regular season. In the 4th quarter, his attempts rose to 14.0 per 36 minutes, nearly twice his 1st quarter rate of 7.8.

Why did this happen? Either teams deliberately fouled Dwight late or the Magic went to him more often. Dwight’s relatively low usage rate in the 4th quarter suggests he was fouled more often by design.

The most important part of this debate is his free throw percentage in the 4th quarter. Dwight made 59.6% of his free throws during the season. In the 4th, he made 64% of his freebies, his best rate in any quarter. The big man never broke 60% in quarters 1 through 3.

In fairness, his 4th quarter rate was still a shot below those of his teammates: Hedo Turkoglu (70%), Jameer Nelson (74%), Jason Richardson (78%), and Brandon Bass (80%).

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Appreciating Dwight Howard’s greatness

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

It’s hard out here for Orlando Magic fans.

The Magic lost in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs to the Atlanta Hawks.

There’s so much uncertainty surrounding Dwight Howard‘s future.

And general manager Otis Smith‘s continued quest to to find the right combination of players to surround Howard in hopes of being an elite team and championship contender before it’s too late is a difficult one, given that he’s dealing with the nearly unmovable contracts of Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu as well as a shallow talent pool.

To be honest, the Magic are reaching a crossroads as a franchise and there’s not a lot of positive things to talk about right now.

However, it never hurts to look back and appreciate the MVP-caliber season that Dwight Howard had for Orlando, especially in the playoffs where he elevated his level of play to transcendent heights.

Despite being undermined by the lack of consistent contributions from his supporting cast, Howard was a man amongst boys against the Hawks. That description couldn’t be more apt than in Game 1 when Howard had 46 points and 19 rebounds. Howard’s point total was a playoff career-high and it also tied the franchise playoff record for most points scored in a game — Tracy McGrady had 46 points against the Detroit Pistons in a game during the first round of the 2003 NBA Playoffs. The 31 points that Howard scored in the first half was a franchise playoff record for most points scored in a half. Needless to say, Howard had a record-setting night.

Even though the Magic lost Game 1 despite Howard’s herculean efforts, it’s worth taking a look back at his performance because it’s a perfect example of the evolution he’s undertaken on offense. Everyone and their mother talked about Howard working out with Hakeem Olajuwon during the offseason, and Game 1 was an example of that hard work paying off. Rather than track every single basket offensively for Howard, let’s take a look at his first half output.

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Wednesday’s Magic Word

  • Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “Earl Clark is thankful the Phoenix Suns agreed to trade him to the Orlando Magic as part of the six-player, blockbuster deal in mid-December. The move to Orlando might have saved his NBA career. Earlier this year, when the Suns declined to pick up Clark’s $2 million option to keep him for the 2011-12 season — making him a free agent this summer — Clark took it personally and wondered what his NBA future would entail. He barely played in Phoenix, had a reputation as a not-so-hard worker and was stuck between forward positions. It appeared Clark would be competing to make an NBA squad from the end of a bench on a new team next season. But that all changed in December when the Suns sent Clark to the Magic in the deal that brought Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson to Orlando. The fresh start rejuvenated Clark, a second-year player out of Louisville.”
  • The Orlando Magic’s search for a shooting guard continues.
  • An update on Daniel Orton.
  • Ric Bucher of ESPN.com talks about his back-and-forth discussion with Dwight Howard in the locker room when the Magic lost Game 3 against the Atlanta Hawks.
  • Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com recaps Orlando’s season and ends with this note: “It will be fascinating to see what the Magic try to do this offseason in an effort to bounce back and return to championship-level form. Except for J-Rich, everyone on the Magic’s roster is under contract for next season. Since Richardson was very valuable to Orlando since his arrival, it’s certainly possible that Otis [Smith] will try and re-sign him to a long-term deal. Otherwise, if there are any changes to the Magic those alterations will likely come in the form of trades.”
  • Tom Haberstroh of ESPN Insider provides a solution for the Magic’s woes but not before warning that the task to improve will be difficult: “The Magic could blow it up again, but “it” is rubble anyway. We saw this season that there’s no such thing as an unmovable contract — interestingly enough, thanks to Magic GM Otis Smith — but the stock of [Gilbert] Arenas and Turkoglu has fallen so low that they’re glorified sunk costs at this point. If this sounds like we’re painting a grim picture here, that’s because it is a grim picture. There are no easy answers here, but this is the bed that Smith made. They have no room to sign anyone in free agency and they don’t have the positioning in the draft to pluck an instant contributor. Flexibility-wise, Smith is in a straitjacket, and his only hope is that Arenas and Turkoglu do their best Benjamin Button impressions or accept buyouts. Both scenarios are pipedreams.”

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