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Game 2 of the 2009 NBA Finals is hard to watch for many reasons. It was a loss, for one thing. But far more painful is the memory of a confident, exciting group of guys who did a lot of things right. I would not go so far as to call the Magic in 2009 a team of destiny, but I would certainly say that my excitement after 2009 was through the roof thinking about the potential the Magic had of stringing together multiple championship seasons.

Now, after a couple of years, we can only look back fondly (even at the losses) in 2009 and wonder where that team of destiny went.

Dwight was not quite ready 
He did so many things right. He attracted the double-team, got to the foul line (sometimes), passed the ball with precision (for the most part), and rebounded like it was going out of style. What was missing for me was that takeover hunger that Kobe Bryant had throughout the entire game and series. Yes, Dwight demanded the ball, but he did not command the paint. At times he struggled to make good decisions like going left instead of right, or spinning for the lob instead of trying to back Gasol down. You can’t point the finger at Dwight, but you can safely say that he was not ready to win a championship. This was not Shaq, nor was it Tim Duncan. He needed another year or two to develop (which he did). The sad thing is that 2009 team did not stay a 2009 team with him. They dwindled as his game got progressively better. It is one of the more painful memories Magic fans have. Dwight was great, he was even terrific, but he was not ready in 2009 to win a championship.

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J.J. Redick plays a solid game, a fluid game, and a game that makes us think we are missing him when he is gone. Those around the league like to say he has a “high basketball IQ.” But does he? It seems that sometimes there are players who can give you positive output in almost every statistical category, but still fail to impact the game the way you want them to.

First we have to define basketball IQ. I hear it a lot when a player makes an unexpectedly good decision, or shows in some way that he schooled himself on his opponent. Generally it means preparedness, or the ability to adapt the rhythm of the game no matter what. Moreover, it means thinking ahead, and being one step ahead of your opponent.

At first glance I would say Redick definitely has a high basketball IQ. But how does this translate to statistics? I break it down into four categories: taking smart shots, making smart passes, playing strong defense, and protecting the ball. Superstar or not, if you can keep those four areas of your game on speed dial, you will do more good than harm for your team.

As for taking smart shots, Redick obviously does not struggle with the temptation to throw up circus shots, or go off shooting fadeaway’s from deep. His shot selection is sound, as evidenced by his .589 True Shooting percentage from this season. In fact, only two Magic players have a better True Shooting percentage than Redick—Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson.

Need a current Eastern Conference Finals contender to compare that to? Kyle Korver currently has a True Shooting percentage of .572, and D-Wade is .581. So yes, Redick shoots for a high percentage, and at 17 percent usage, that is exactly what you need out of him.

Redick’s True Shooting percentage puts him among the leagues top 50 players, so he gets an A in this category.

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It’s May and the Orlando Magic aren’t playing basketball right now.

Weird.

The last time the Magic weren’t playing basketball in May was in 2007 when they were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the first round, which was Brian Hill’s final year as the head coach. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy arrived, Orlando became accustomed to continuing their season beyond April to the months of May and June but not this time around.

Instead, the Magic are spectators and sitting at home after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

As such, it seems appropriate to look back at what happened in the postseason for Orlando and chime in on Dwight Howard‘s future with the franchise. So without further ado, welcome to Magic Basketball’s first in-house roundtable discussion.

Credit goes to Matt Scribbins for the questions.

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If ifs and buts were candy and Zaza head-butts, the Magic would still be in the playoffs. What is your #1 if?

Nate Drexler: It would have been nice to see a healthy Magic team in the playoffs. If Gilbert Arenas was at 100 percent for the second half of the season, for instance, things would have played out differently. I only say it because Hibachi is a tremendous player, and the reason so many people are frustrated with his huge contract and poor play is they know what a huge impact he can have on a team.  As for this season, he was dead wood. That is why my biggest “if” is having Gilbert mentally and physically peaked for the playoffs.

Danny Nowell: The biggest if, for me, is what if Hedo Turkoglu had been the same Hedo Turkoglu that propelled the 2009 run. I know, I know, it’s easy to make him a scapegoat—and it’s not like he’s getting younger, so maybe his decline is strictly about aging—but what else would the Magic have realistically been able to get that they needed? Jameer [Nelson] showed up in spurts, Dwight had an historically good series; I think the key could have been a big ball handler that was aggressive when he needed to be and a creator when he didn’t. Hedo’s play was almost the direct inverse of that.

Matt Scribbins: The Magic would still be in the playoffs if they had a legitimate option on offense besides Dwight Howard. With help from the Basketball Reference database, I learned only seven players since 1947 have made 20 or fewer shots while attempting 68+ in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu did just that this post-season and bricked his way into the record books.  Hedo, one of the worst shooters in NBA playoff history, actually out did himself and provided his worst playoff shooting performance ever.

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The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a two-part series — here’s Part I.

“What went wrong” is far less important right now than “what is going to happen next” for the Orlando Magic, but you cannot really answer the second question without giving a good look at the first. LeBron James’ trajectory and departure from Cleveland provides a significant blueprint for what to expect from Dwight this summer, and it does not look pretty.

I remember the 2009 season vividly. That fall I was meandering around the web, looking at preseason acquisitions and making predictions when certain names would stand out.

I raised my eyebrows when I saw the Cavs picked up Mo Williams, and then made a call to a friend of mine back home in St. Louis. Even though it had been a few weeks since the last time we caught up, the beginning of the conversation went something like this:

“Hello.”

“Uh, did you see that Cleveland got Mo Williams?”

“Oh, they did? Huh…”

“Dude, I think Lebron is going to get a ring this year.”

Obviously Mo Williams was not the reason the Cavs made a run at the Eastern Conference Finals, but here’s the point: When you have a superstar as your centerpiece, the rest becomes a chess game, and the winner of the game is the owner who can put the right pieces in place around your guy.

At that moment in the fall of 2008, I thought Dan Gilbert had done it, or at least had come close.

Since that move, Gilbert didn’t do a whole lot to improve LeBron’s situation. The Antawn Jamison pickup had moments of looking like a good move, but for the remainder of LeBron’s tenure as a Cav, Gilbert watched clumsily as LeBron kept being LeBron, kept empowering guys like Delonte West to max potential, and then fizzle out in the playoffs.

It is a sad story for Cleveland, but the demise of the Cavs and the departure of LeBron might have paved the way for guys like Dwight to have a much easier time come “decision time.”

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