2010-2011 Player Evaluation: J.J. Redick

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
| 2010-2011 regular season | J.J. Redick |
|---|---|
| Games Played | 59 |
| Minutes Played | 25.6 |
| adj. +/- | -6.40 |
| net +/- | -4.5 |
| statistical +/- | -0.62 |
| PER | 12.8 |
| WARP | 1.8 |
| Win Shares/48 | .143 |

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
| 2010-2011 regular season | J.J. Redick |
|---|---|
| Games Played | 59 |
| Minutes Played | 25.6 |
| adj. +/- | -6.40 |
| net +/- | -4.5 |
| statistical +/- | -0.62 |
| PER | 12.8 |
| WARP | 1.8 |
| Win Shares/48 | .143 |

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It’s May and the Orlando Magic aren’t playing basketball right now.
Weird.
The last time the Magic weren’t playing basketball in May was in 2007 when they were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the first round, which was Brian Hill’s final year as the head coach. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy arrived, Orlando became accustomed to continuing their season beyond April to the months of May and June but not this time around.
Instead, the Magic are spectators and sitting at home after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.
As such, it seems appropriate to look back at what happened in the postseason for Orlando and chime in on Dwight Howard‘s future with the franchise. So without further ado, welcome to Magic Basketball’s first in-house roundtable discussion.
Credit goes to Matt Scribbins for the questions.
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If ifs and buts were candy and Zaza head-butts, the Magic would still be in the playoffs. What is your #1 if?
Nate Drexler: It would have been nice to see a healthy Magic team in the playoffs. If Gilbert Arenas was at 100 percent for the second half of the season, for instance, things would have played out differently. I only say it because Hibachi is a tremendous player, and the reason so many people are frustrated with his huge contract and poor play is they know what a huge impact he can have on a team. As for this season, he was dead wood. That is why my biggest “if” is having Gilbert mentally and physically peaked for the playoffs.
Danny Nowell: The biggest if, for me, is what if Hedo Turkoglu had been the same Hedo Turkoglu that propelled the 2009 run. I know, I know, it’s easy to make him a scapegoat—and it’s not like he’s getting younger, so maybe his decline is strictly about aging—but what else would the Magic have realistically been able to get that they needed? Jameer [Nelson] showed up in spurts, Dwight had an historically good series; I think the key could have been a big ball handler that was aggressive when he needed to be and a creator when he didn’t. Hedo’s play was almost the direct inverse of that.
Matt Scribbins: The Magic would still be in the playoffs if they had a legitimate option on offense besides Dwight Howard. With help from the Basketball Reference database, I learned only seven players since 1947 have made 20 or fewer shots while attempting 68+ in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu did just that this post-season and bricked his way into the record books. Hedo, one of the worst shooters in NBA playoff history, actually out did himself and provided his worst playoff shooting performance ever.
Game 6
PPP = Points Per Possession
Orlando offense
The spot-up game continued to be a key for Orlando. The Magic made 5-10 attempts on Thursday, but missed all four beyond the arc. In the regular season, Orlando averaged 1.05 PPP, which was the 5th best mark in the league. However, the Magic were held under 1.0 PPP in five of six playoff games and held under 0.5 PPP in three games.
Orlando’s ball handlers used a series low 16 possessions and provided a relatively modest performance in Game 6. They scored 0.81 PPP, which fell slightly below their elite 0.86 PPP rate in the regular season. Hedo Turkoglu didn’t do the Magic any favors in this area as he missed all five of his shot attempts. Jameer Nelson was superb and made 3-4 shots, including two driving layups and one long jumper.
I may have already mentioned this, but Orlando is dominant when they utilize roll men off the pick-and-roll. The Magic posted an absurd 1.6 PPP on Thursday. Stan Van Gundy called for the play four times in the 4th quarter and Dwight provided two dunks in his three attempts. Ryan Anderson’s three ball cut Atlanta’s lead to two with 4:40 left in the game.
The Magic isolated 13.48% of the time in Game 6, a hefty increase from their next highest percentage, 6.67%, in Game 1. Hedo made two of his three isolation three-point attempts, and his first make cut Atlanta’s lead to one in the 2nd half.
The post-up game recorded the lowest PPP of the series in Game 6. Dwight made three of eight shots and Brandon Bass missed his only attempt to leave Orlando with 0.5 PPP.
Jason Richardson propelled the offense to 1.17 PPP running off screens. He scored Orlando’s first bucket of the game after running off a screen set by Dwight Howard. Obviously, J.J. Redick missed a crucial three-point attempt after using a Howard screen at the end of the game.
Orlando defense
Atlanta used nearly 1/5 of their possessions in isolation and didn’t have much to show for it. They scored 0.47 PPP, by far their lowest rate of the series. The Hawks only made 22.2% of their isolation shots (4-18). Naturally, Joe Johnson was the main offender and made three of his 12 attempts.
The Hawks are not a running team and didn’t turn into one on Thursday. Nonetheless, they were effective when they did. On seven possessions, Atlanta posted 1.14 PPP and it was the only time in the series they exceeded 1.00 PPP.
Orlando put the clamps on Atlana’s post-up game in Game 6, and the Hawks scored a paltry 0.57 PPP. Al Horford and Josh Smith combined to shoot 1-7 in these situations.
The spot-up shooting for Atlanta maintained a scintillating rate. The Hawks 11th ranked unit made mincemeat of Orlando’s 5th ranked spot-up defense throughout the entire series, and the final game was no different. The Hawks shot 10-22 overall and made seven of their 14 attempts from downtown. Orlando held opponents to 0.94 PPP in spot-up situations during the regular season, but the Hawks scored 1.04+ in five of six playoff contests.
The Atlanta Hawks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 84-81, winning the series 4-2 and exacting revenge from last year’s sweep in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals. For the Magic, this is the first time they’ve lost in the first round of the playoffs during head coach Stan Van Gundy‘s tenure with the franchise. The last time Orlando got bounced this early was in 2007. After trailing by as many as 11 points in the game, the Magic made a furious charge in the fourth quarter and were able to cut the deficit to 82-81 with 34.3 seconds left in regulation after a layup by Jameer Nelson. However, being out-rebounded was the prime culprit for the loss and it was exemplified on the ensuing possession. Marvin Williams missed a three-pointer that would have iced the game for the Hawks but he missed the shot, and Joe Johnson was able to get the offensive rebound. Thus forcing Orlando to foul. Jamal Crawford made the two free-throws, which meant the Magic need a game-tying three-pointer to extend their season. J.J. Redick got a clean look thanks in large part to Van Gundy’s play design coming out of the timeout. But Redick missed. However, Al Horford stepped out of bounds after he rebounded the basketball, which meant Orlando had one more chance to tie. Yet Josh Smith was able to block Jason Richardson‘s three-point attempt and just like that, the Magic’s season was over. Atlanta was led by a balanced attack, as five players scored in double-figures. Johnson finished with 23 points (on 10-of-25 shooting from the field), 10 rebounds, and four assists. Crawford contributed with 19 points and two steals. Horford chipped in with 10 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists, while Kirk Hinrich had 11 points and Williams had 10 points. Dwight Howard finished an exemplary series by tallying 25 points, 15 rebounds, and three blocks but it wasn’t enough to save Orlando from elimination. The lack of consistent production from the Magic’s supporting cast was largely to blame for the series loss, undermining Howard’s brilliance.

Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images
Before the playoffs started, I previewed Orlando’s first round matchup using data from Synergy Sports Technology. Last week, we looked at the playoff games in Atlanta. Today, let’s examine the results from the contest in Orlando.
Game 5
PPP = Points Per Possession
Orlando offense
The Magic shot 11-26 beyond the arc and it seemed like a Big Foot sighting. However, it wasn’t too far off their typical production. In the 2010-2011 regular season, Orlando attempted 20+ three-pointers and made 40% or more on 29 different occasions. 29!
J.J. Redick supplied shooting sorcery as he went 6-8 to spark the Magic. He scored two buckets in transition and made the rest as the ball handler in pick-and-roll situations. His jumper over Kirk Hinrich at the end of the first quarter put Orlando up 14 and he went to the line to complete the old fashioned three-point play. The former Blue Devil provided a great boost off the bench without even attempting a shot beyond the arc.
Two days removed from posting 0.44 PPP in spot-up situations, a rejuvenated Magic squad delivered 0.95 PPP. Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Ryan Anderson all made multiple spot-up attempts.
Orlando used possessions in transition more often in Game 5 than the any other playoff game. The team averaged 0.93 PPP and Anderson, Jameer Nelson, and Quentin Richardson all knocked down threes on the run.
All season long, the Magic have made an effort to post-up against Atlanta. In the first four playoff games, they never posted-up fewer than 21 times. On Tuesday, Orlando only went to the move on eight occasions, and Brandon Bass and Jason Richardson were responsible for the only buckets.
Orlando defense
The Hawks went to isolation plays frequently in the previous four games, but in Game 5, Atlanta only isolated 12.6% of the time. The next closest total was 17% of their plays in Game 3. Joe Johnson isolated four times yesterday and each of his attempts came against a different defender.
The Hawks, specifically Jamal Crawford, tore Orlando apart shooting off screens in Games 1 through 4. On Tuesday, the Hawks scored 0.57 PPP and misfired on all four attempts in the 1st quarter.
Orlando was upper echelon at stopping roll men during the regular season, but in the playoffs, Atlanta found success. In Game 5, Atlanta barely went to the play and missed on both of their shots from roll men.
The Magic coxed the Hawks into their most spot-up attempts so far in Game 5. The Hawks chucked it up 26 times and scored 1.04 PPP, their second lowest rate through five games.
Another area Atlanta was terrible in was transition. The Hawks used 13 possessions running, a playoff high, and clanged all five of their three-point attempts.
Game 5 was a reappearance of the 2010 NBA Playoffs. Now, the Magic head to Atlanta, where they haven’t won this season. Let’s hope The Otis Smith 11 can put Dwight Howard on their back again on Thursday and force Game 7.

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Able to stave off elimination and avoid ending their season on their home court, the Orlando Magic were able to defeat the Atlanta Hawks by the score of 101-76 and force a Game 6 on Thursday on the road. One of the running narratives in the series has centered on the Magic’s three-point shooting, and how awful it’s been. Heading into Game 5, Orlando was shooting 21.8 percent from three-point range. Even though the Hawks deserve credit for being able to stymie the Magic’s army of three-point shooters, that’s still an abnormally low percentage and more of a statistical anomaly than anything else. During the regular season, Orlando shot 36.6 percent on threes and sooner or later, the odds of them regressing to the mean were high. The question was whether or not it’d be too late. Well, if the Game 5 result is any indication, the answer is no. The Magic shot 11-of-26 (42.3 percent) from three-point range and finally played up to their potential on both ends of the floor. Orlando was led by a balanced attack, as nine players scored seven points or more. Jason Richardson paced the starters with 17 points, returning from his Game 4 suspension and making a positive impact offensively. J.J. Redick stood out among the reserves with 14 points on eight shots in less than 20 minutes of playing time. It speaks volumes that the Magic were able to crush the Hawks by 25 points, given that Dwight Howard only had eight points and eight rebounds, but it says more so that the supporting cast was able to step up.