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Pythagorean wins is a formula that converts points scored and allowed into a predicted winning percentage. The results can show, among other things, teams that over/under perform, win/lose many close games, or just experience good/bad luck.

To predict an NBA team’s winning percentage, the following calculation is performed:

(Points Scored^16.5) / (Points scored^16.5  + Points allowed^16.5) = Winning Percentage

Approach
This article will focus on the NBA teams with the most total wins over the last four regular seasons (Lakers-236, Celtics-234, Magic-222, Spurs-221, Mavericks-213). The last four seasons are used because:

• Stan Van Gundy’s tenure in Orlando started four years ago (LAL, BOS, SA same coach all four years too)
• Rick Carlisle has coached the Mavericks for three of the last four seasons
• The stars (Howard, Bryant, Duncan, Nowitzki, Garnett, etc.) played with same team entire span

This piece counts a close game as any contest with a final margin of three points or fewer (one possession). A blowout is any contest with a final margin of fifteen points or more (five possessions).

Wins
Only the Timberwolves (do they even count?) have fallen short of their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than the Orlando Magic over the last four seasons. During the same span, Orlando never finished a season with more actual wins than Pythagorean wins.

The Dallas Mavericks check in on the other end of the spectrum as they exceeded their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than any other team (10). As I mentioned in a Hoopdata article, some of the Mavericks’ success can be attributed to their record in close games (34-18). The Mavericks’ scoring differential predicted 203 wins over the last four years, but they actually won 213. On the other hand, Orlando’s scoring differential predicted 232 wins, but they actually won 222.

The Lakers amassed the most regular seasons win during the period, but their Pythagorean win total was equal to Orlando’s. In other words, they were victorious 14 more times than Orlando even though their scoring differentials indicated the same number. The Spurs collected just one fewer win than Orlando, but their scoring differential indicated 14 fewer wins.

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Via the Orlando Magic:

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, winner of the last three Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Awards, headlines the NBA All-Defensive First Team, the NBA announced today. Howard totaled 56 points overall, including 27 First Team votes.

Howard earned the 2010-11 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, becoming the first player to win the award three straight seasons. He led the league with 66 double-doubles, while ranking second in rebounds (14.1 rpg) and fourth in blocks (2.38 bpg). He recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots for the sixth straight year; since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons). With Howard manning the middle, the [Orlando] Magic allowed 93.5 ppg, ranking fourth in that category.

Also selected to the All-Defensive First Team are guard Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics (39 points), forward LeBron James of the Miami Heat (38 points), forward Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics (33 points) and guard Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers (33 points). Garnett and Bryant each earn All-Defensive First Team honors for the ninth time, tying Michael Jordan and Gary Payton for the most in NBA history.

The NBA All-Defensive Second Team consists of guards Tony Allen of the Memphis Grizzlies and Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets, center Tyson Chandler of the Dallas Mavericks, forward Andre Iguodala of the Philadelphia 76ers and forward-center Joakim Noah of the Chicago Bulls.

The voting panel consisted of the NBA’s 30 head coaches, who were asked to select NBA All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position. Coaches were not permitted to vote for players from their own team. Two points were awarded for a First Team vote and one point was awarded for a Second Team vote.

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If there is one thing we know about Stan Van Gundy, it’s that he’s a pretty quiet guy, reticent to speak his mind to the media, and wholly above speaking publicly in any way that might ruffle fans’ or players’ feathers. That’s why we can be certain that earlier this week, when he made the following comments, Stan had no sort of ulterior motive or objective in mind:

“There’s no matchup for [Dwight Howard] that creates the excitement,” Van Gundy said. “If you got back to when the centers were king, you have Chamberlain-Russell and people say ‘Wow, that’s a match-up you look forward to.’ Now people look forward to Chris Paul against Derrick Rose.”

What Stan was saying, subtext aside, is that the lack of a nemesis is keeping Dwight Howard’s hype factor down. Well, is he right? There are a couple of different ways to approach this. First, let’s look at a crude measure of the league marquee, the 2011 All-Star rosters. Yao Ming aside, there are only three players who were listed either as centers or forward/centers. One of them was Kevin Love. Another was Al Horford. The third was Pau Gasol, who could be seen as a bona fide A-list big man, but I’m not sure that most people think of his battles in the same way they do LeBron/Kobe or Rose/Paul. The other big man on the list who might qualify is Kevin Garnett, and the popular narrative about the Celtics has been that Kendrick Perkins did the heavy lifting when it came to guarding D12. So, on the face of it, taking as limited a sample as I guess you could, it seems like Stan is right: there are currently no direct match-ups for Dwight that seem worthy of the hype that wing or point guard matchups might garner.

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• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “Dwight Howard now has accomplished something Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo and Hakeem Olajuwon never did. The Orlando Magic center won the 2010-11 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award on Monday and became the first player in league history to receive the honor three years in a row. ‘It’s a great accomplishment,’ Howard said. ‘It’s a blessing. It’s an honor. And I just thank God for this opportunity and just for blessing me with the ability to be able to get stops on the defensive end, block shots, rebound, just do a lot of things and also have this award. Three times in a row is history. I never really thought about it like that until I saw the awards, but I just want to keep it going.’ Howard won this year’s award in a landslide. He earned 114 first-place votes out of 120 ballots cast. Boston Celtics power forward Kevin Garnett finished second. Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler placed third.”
• Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “Atlanta Hawks guard Joe Johnson was a non-factor in last year’s playoff series against the Orlando Magic, shooting 29.8 percent and scoring just 12.8 points per game in the four-game sweep. And now, one year later, he’s the player who hurt the Magic the most in Game 1 by scoring 25 points on 56.3 percent shooting. It’s not like Johnson has evolved as a player in 12 months – his scoring is actually lower this year. And the Hawks are comprised of mostly the same players, so it’s not like he’s getting better looks or less attention from Orlando. So, what’s the difference? The Magic’s primary defender on Johnson last year was Vince Carter, and this year it’s Jason Richardson. Is Carter’s defense that much better than Richardson’s?”
• Do the Orlando Magic have anything to worry about after losing Game 1?
• Dwight Howard achieved a never-before-done feat.
• Mike Prada of SBNation: “Apparently, it is possible for an NBA team to allow a player to score 46 points and be universally praised for it. Dwight Howard ran all over the Atlanta Hawks’ single-coverage, but because nobody else on his team decided to do much of anything, the Hawks came away with a Game 1 victory on the road. Howard and Jameer Nelson scored 73 points; everyone else on the Magic scored 20. Howard and Nelson shot 26-41; everyone else shot 8-34. It was a brilliant strategy by the Hawks to make sure that their horrible teammates had horrible games. Let’s praise them for it! Snark aside, the bottom line is this. Playing Howard straight-up and taking away the three-point shooters is a strategy. Allowing Howard to score 46 points and hope his teammates shoot 8-34 is not. Luckily, the Hawks shot nearly 50 percent from 16-23 feet and made it work. That doesn’t mean it’s a sustainable long-term strategy, but whenever writers are given the chance to question Howard’s worth as a player for being just the 11th player since 1985 to score 45 or more points in a playoff game and lose, they’ll take it.”
• Zach Lowe of The Point Forward: “There’s a reason the Magic ranked third in points allowed per possession and in the top five (per Synergy Sports) in defending pick-and-rolls where the ball-handler finishes the play (first); pick-and-rolls where the roll man finishes (fifth); spot-up chances (fifth) and scoring chances that followed offensive rebounds (first). They managed to do this all without a rotation player any group of league executives would comfortably describe as an above average defender at his position. There’s a reason no team allowed fewer shot attempts at the rim this season. “
• There are skeptics that wonder if the Atlanta Hawks will be able to beat the Magic.
• A great illustration as to the reason Howard won the Defensive Player of the Year award.
• One voter did not have Howard on his ballot for Defensive Player of the Year.
• Steve Aschburner of NBA.com: “The figure on the DPOY trophy, after all, surely is a perimeter guy, squatting down the way Naismith or Wooden would have taught, arms flared out in a defensive stance. Howard, of course, rarely assumes that position; he patrols inside the paint for the Magic, either lurking and banging behind his man, flashing over to give help or licking his chops at the shorties funneled his way by Magic teammates. That’s how he looked at the news conference, looming large, having his guys’ backs.”
• Royce Young of CBSSports.com provides his take on Howard’s impact on defense.
• The Hawks’ win in Game 1 was crazy, but not as crazy as the other first round games.
• M. Haubs of The Painted Area reveals his awards ballot.
• Shannon Booher of SLAM ONLINE marvels at Howard’s Game 1 performance: “Gooooood lawd! As good as he was, that is how bad his teammates (not named Jameer Nelson) were, on offense. And these aren’t playoff newbies. We are talking Hedo [Turkoglu]. Jason Richardson. Gilbert Arenas. The list goes on. Those guys won’t be as bad next game, but Howard probably won’t be as good, either. The Hawks have at least established that they are not going out like they did last year. No brooms here.”
• Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk: “Magic fans don’t want to draw the line connecting the dots. You can’t blame them. But the loss to Atlanta seemed to move those dots toward being in a straight line. And if things don’t change Dwight Howard could connect them himself and devastate the Orlando franchise. The starting point is here: every time Dwight Howard rejects talking in any detail about his future free agent plans — he can opt out in the summer of 2012, but rightfully says that is too far away to think about — he falls back on two themes. One, he really likes Orlando and its fans. Secondly, that he wants to win championships. You can be sure that part two outweighs part one. He has said as much.”

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Via the Orlando Magic:

Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic is the recipient of the 2010-11 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, the NBA announced today. Howard becomes the first player to earn the honor three straight seasons; only Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace, with four each, have won the award more times.

The 6-11 center led the league with 66 double-doubles, including six 20-point/20-rebound efforts, while ranking second in rebounds (14.1 rpg) and fourth in blocks (2.38 bpg). With Howard manning the middle, the Magic allowed 93.5 ppg, ranking fourth in that category. The seventh-year veteran reached several historical milestones this season, including:

• On March 1 vs. New York, Howard, at 25 years and 83 days old, became the youngest player in NBA history to amass 7,000 career rebounds, passing Wilt Chamberlain, who was 26 years and 128 days old when he passed the 7,000-rebound plateau.
• He recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots for the sixth straight year; since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons).
• He became one of only five players in NBA history since blocked shots became an official statistic in 1973-74 to record at least 6,000 rebounds and 1,000 blocked shots in his first 500 games.

As part of its support of the Defensive Player of the Year Award, Kia Motors America will donate a new Kia Sorento CUV to BETA Center, a private, nonprofit organization with 32 years of experience helping families in the greater Orlando area. Kia Motors will present a brand new Sorento to the charity of choice of each of four 2010-11 season-end award winners as part of the “The Kia NBA Performance Awards.” Following this season, Kia Motors will have donated a total of 16 new vehicles to charitable organizations since its support of the NBA’s prestigious year-end honors began with the 2007-2008 season.

Howard received 585 points, including 114 first-place votes, from a panel of 120 sportswriters and broadcasters throughout the United States and Canada. Boston’s Kevin Garnett finished second with 77 points and Dallas’ Tyson Chandler finished third with 70 points. Players were awarded five points for each first-place vote, three points for each second-place vote and one point for each third-place vote received.

• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “The Orlando Magic almost never hold a shootaround on the day after a game. If they’re in Orlando and are about to play the second leg of a back-to-back, they’ll hold a walkthrough on their Amway Center practice court a few hours before tipoff. If they’re on the road, they’ll assemble in a hotel ballroom around 11 in the morning and go over the keys to that night’s game. That routine changed today even though the Magic faced the Chicago Bulls in a hard-fought game Sunday afternoon in Orlando. Indeed, the Magic originally weren’t scheduled to shoot-around, but Stan Van Gundy decided to bring his players to the Wells Fargo Center, where they worked for almost 80 minutes. So what gives? It’s all about the playoffs. In an effort to prepare for their first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks, the Magic did more today to fine-tune their offense instead of preparing for tonight’s opponent, the Philadelphia 76ers.”
• Which team poses the biggest threat for the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference?
• J.J. Redick is close to returning for the  Magic.
• Gilbert Arenas may sit out tonight’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers.
• Marc Stein of ESPN.com: “Just because he’s not getting my MVP vote doesn’t mean that I won’t take a quick 20 to hat-tip Dwight Howard for joining Hakeem, Barkley and Moses as the only players in the last 30 seasons to average 23 ppg and 14 rpg.”
• According to Zach Lowe of The Point Forward, Dwight Howard should be the MVP: “I’ve made the case all season, so I won’t belabor it again here. In general terms, Howard has emerged as an elite offensive player, the foundation of Orlando’s offense nearly (but not quite) to the degree that Derrick Rose and LeBron James are to the offenses in Chicago and Miami. His free throw issues and resulting lack of shot attempts in the clutch place him a small notch below the league’s best offensive players, but no one touches him as a defender. No one. That two-way combination, plus his value to an otherwise ho-hum Orlando roster, separates Howard from the field in an award meant to honor an individual’s play over 82 games and not during the final 45 seconds of a game that is happening in the imagination of too many voters.”
• Chris Mannix and Ian Thomsen of Sports Illustrated are unanimous in their vote for Howard as the Defensive Player of the Year. Here’s what Thomsen had to say about Howard’s wizardry on defense: “Howard has the gaudy numbers and every scout will tell you he has an effect on virtually every defensive possession that finishes in or near the paint. But the most impressive part of Howard’s season is that he has carried a stingy Magic D almost single-handedly. He plays next to an undersized power forward (Brandon Bass), and the defensive skills of the wing players in front of him are average at best. This is an award that, barring injury, Howard should win every year.”
• Add John Hollinger of ESPN Insider to the MVP tally, as he also declares Howard as the rightful player for the award: “I explained this in a lengthy column earlier this month, and while my logic has clearly displeased certain factions, it hasn’t changed any of the facts. The most notable one is that the three Florida stars — Howard, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade — were the league’s three best in the league by a fair margin, whether you want to use numbers, the much-beloved eye test or any other standard. Howard has no chance in real life, however. For some reason, the concept that the league’s best player could be on an also-ran team remains an insurmountable hurdle (for reference, see also Kobe Bryant in 2006 and Kevin Garnett in 2005).”
• Life without Howard for the Magic wasn’t easy on Sunday.
• Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk: “Dwight Howard will finish the season averaging more than 23 points and 14 rebounds per game. Last person to do that (via ESPN’s Marc Stein): Hakeem Olajuwon. I’d have him higher, but if he’s not in the top three on your MVP ballot, you’re doing it wrong.

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Part I of this mini-series looked at the draft position of players who have recently appeared in the NCAA National Finals. Today, we will look at the teams who pursued these players, and how these players performed in the NBA. Tomorrow, Part III will explore two different one-and-done scenarios, and the NCAA Tournament history of players on top NBA teams. We will also see the “good ol’ days” are aptly named.

Winnersville, U.S.A.
Say what you want about the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they are a bunch of winners (at least on draft night). Since 2005, four of Minnesota’s eleven first round picks have played on NCAA Championship teams. They also picked champions in the second round, netting Mario Chalmers and Chris Richard. These players have not helped Minnesota become a #winning team so far. Actually, Wayne Ellington is the only player among the six still with the Wolves. Two different luminaries, Kevin McHale and David Kahn, have made draft picks for the team during this time.

Ironically, Jerry Sloan and the Utah Jazz welcomed three members of the runner-up 2005 Illinois team to town. They used the third overall pick of the 2005 draft on Deron Williams, and he eventually assisted Sloan’s exit from Salt Lake City. They drafted Dee Brown in the second round of 2006, and Roger Powell signed with the Jazz after his Illinois career.

The Bulls ended up with three members of the 2001 Duke team at various stages of their careers. They drafted Jay Williams second overall in 2002. Two years later, they used a second round pick on Chris Duhon. In the summer of 2010, their decision was signing Carlos Boozer to a five year contract. In total, the Bulls have had eight players from the last eleven champions wear their jersey (Williams, Duhon, Boozer, Joakim Noah, Hakim Warrick, Lonny Baxter, Chris Richard, Ben Gordon).

Five teams (Dallas, San Antonio, Boston, Sacramento, Phoenix) haven’t selected a player who appeared in the National Finals since the turn of the century. It is worth pointing out some of these teams are major players in basketball analytics.

The dichotomy between the Timberwolves draft results and some of the analytical squads’ results leads to an obvious question: do the more analytical teams ignore winners, while teams like Minnesota think winners will bring them out of the basement?

We at least know the Mavericks philosophy. I e-mailed Mavericks owner Mark Cuban yesterday and asked him why his team hasn’t drafted a player from the National Finals since he took over. He just chalked it up to happenstance. He went on to say it is “not intentional at all. We don’t care who they play for.”

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A few weeks ago I read a headline that all but sent me running through my neighborhood chanting, “they’re back!” The Strokes were releasing a new single, the first music from them since 2005. I first heard about them in 2002 while I was at prom and a buddy popped in their debut record “Is This It.” From there I was hooked, and spent the better half of the next few years selling my soul to Julian Casablancas, trying to argue they were one of the best five bands of all time.

After that monumental album, The Strokes dropped a pair of marginal records that left a bittersweet taste in the mouths of fans and critics. Yes, it was decent music, and yes there were good moments, but it was not a complete package. It wasn’t that perfect record that came out of nowhere in 2001.

I bet Stan Van Gundy has fond memories of the Jameer Nelson of 2009. Granted, Nelson only played 42 games that season, but his output was the best in his career. It’s been hard for Magic fans to figure out why he can’t replicate the magic of those 42 games for more than a game or two at a time.

What is clear, though, is that SVG not only remembers, but also demands the type of play he thinks Nelson is capable of. That kind of play is what we saw last week at Sacramento and Golden State. Nelson posted 24 and 26 points in those games. And a few weeks back he dropped 26 against New York. But there are too many marginal “games between the games” where Jameer underperforms, like in Portland a week ago where he had two points in 21 minutes and shot 14 percent from the field. That was not the case in 2009.

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Via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel:

Four months ago, Earl Clark reached a troubling career crossroads. The Phoenix Suns declined to pick up their $2 million option to keep him for the 2011-12 season, an unconventional move that ensured Clark will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Two months ago, the Suns severed their ties with Clark by including him in the blockbuster trade that sent Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu to the Orlando Magic for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus.

These days, much has changed for the young, 6-foot-10 forward.

A few months from now, at playoff time, the Magic might ask Clark to guard power forwards such as Chris Bosh and Kevin Garnett or small forwards such as Carmelo Anthony, Luol Deng, LeBron James and Paul Pierce.

“He doesn’t have the experience of having seen every NBA situation,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said.

“But I think his potential as a defensive player and as a defensive impact guy is unlimited if he can get down some better team defensive principles and focus and if he can truly understand that his route to being a special player in this league lies at the defensive end.”

The final month and a half will be crucial for Clark, who has played in only 19 games for the Magic and played a total of just 60 regular-season games for the Suns.

From now until mid-April, he can prove to his coaches that he can be counted on in crucial situations.

Given that head coach Stan Van Gundy has entrusted Earl Clark to defend the likes of Kevin Durant, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Carmelo Anthony in recent games, this is something to keep an eye on — especially with the playoffs steadily approaching.