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A week ago, Magic Basketball’s team of writers were featured on a recent 5-on-5 roundtable discussion at ESPN.com, answering offseason questions pertaining to the Orlando Magic and providing our opinions on several topics, including our thoughts on Dwight Howard‘s future and more. But we didn’t stop there.

As a supplement, here is our 3-on-3 roundtable discussion on the Magic.

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What are your thoughts on Gilbert Arenas’ Twitter account?

Nate Drexler: Gilbert’s tweets are highly entertaining, but highly discouraging. I hate to make a big deal out of nothing, especially while there is no NBA season happening, but it’s almost all the evidence you need that he does not care about this game anymore. Being a goofball is one thing, but the aura that Gilbert has created in his tweet-o-sphere is childish to me. If I’m Otis Smith, Stan Van Gundy, or any Magic player, I’m thinking to myself, “I cannot wait until this guy is not my problem anymore.”

Eddy Rivera: Following Gilbert Arenas on Twitter has been one of my more hilarious endeavors since I signed up in 2009. If you want to see Arenas without a filter, then you’ve come to the right place. It’s refreshing to see that Arenas doesn’t hold anything back and you feel like you’re getting his real personality when he tweets. Sure, Arenas has gotten fined an undisclosed amount of money by the NBA for some of his content but at least he’s not playing it by the book. For Arenas, there is no book, just random pages.

Matt Scribbins: The pictures of him planking are the most entertaining I have even seen on Twitter and it’s not even close. His daily shoe contests are a fun way for him to interact with fans and reward his followers with a cool prize. I’ll give him credit for being honest, but he is probably to the point where he has offended nearly everyone. I think Foghorn Leghorn could probably sum it up the best – “It was the best of times, I said it was the worst of times.”

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I recently revisited Game 1 of the 2009 NBA Eastern Conference Finals between the Magic and Cavs. Cleveland was hot, and maybe even the team to beat coming into the series. Orlando had other intentions, though. My foggy memory was filled with ideas of a three-point shootout, a lot of LeBron isolation, and a big shot from Rashard Lewis. After revisiting, I realized my memory had failed me.

This was an epic showdown between two superstars — Dwight Howard and LeBron James. More than that, though, it was a showdown between two coaches, two benches, and two sets of roll players. The Magic won in all three of those categories, which meant they would win the game too.

No one on the corner has swagger like us
I remember watching every second of this series. In fact, I remember watching every second of the Cavs’ season. The Mo Williams pick up had me hooked from preseason on, and when LeBron and company arrived in the playoffs, I was convinced nothing could stop them. Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was no exception. In fact, it probably epitomized that untouchable feeling more than any other game. The way the Cavs took the floor against the Magic was daunting. The Cavs were like a fresh rap group that, even if you didn’t like their song, you had to respect their swagger. LeBron was a man on a mission, and at that point had empowered Mo Williams and Delonte West to their max potential. It did not take long for LeBron to assert himself as a juggernaut, either. Ultimately, there was something special about that Cavs team, and what stopped them (perhaps the only thing that could have stopped them) were Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic.

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Pythagorean wins is a formula that converts points scored and allowed into a predicted winning percentage. The results can show, among other things, teams that over/under perform, win/lose many close games, or just experience good/bad luck.

To predict an NBA team’s winning percentage, the following calculation is performed:

(Points Scored^16.5) / (Points scored^16.5  + Points allowed^16.5) = Winning Percentage

Approach
This article will focus on the NBA teams with the most total wins over the last four regular seasons (Lakers-236, Celtics-234, Magic-222, Spurs-221, Mavericks-213). The last four seasons are used because:

• Stan Van Gundy’s tenure in Orlando started four years ago (LAL, BOS, SA same coach all four years too)
• Rick Carlisle has coached the Mavericks for three of the last four seasons
• The stars (Howard, Bryant, Duncan, Nowitzki, Garnett, etc.) played with same team entire span

This piece counts a close game as any contest with a final margin of three points or fewer (one possession). A blowout is any contest with a final margin of fifteen points or more (five possessions).

Wins
Only the Timberwolves (do they even count?) have fallen short of their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than the Orlando Magic over the last four seasons. During the same span, Orlando never finished a season with more actual wins than Pythagorean wins.

The Dallas Mavericks check in on the other end of the spectrum as they exceeded their Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than any other team (10). As I mentioned in a Hoopdata article, some of the Mavericks’ success can be attributed to their record in close games (34-18). The Mavericks’ scoring differential predicted 203 wins over the last four years, but they actually won 213. On the other hand, Orlando’s scoring differential predicted 232 wins, but they actually won 222.

The Lakers amassed the most regular seasons win during the period, but their Pythagorean win total was equal to Orlando’s. In other words, they were victorious 14 more times than Orlando even though their scoring differentials indicated the same number. The Spurs collected just one fewer win than Orlando, but their scoring differential indicated 14 fewer wins.

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As the Oklahoma City Thunder, scheduled to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Finals later tonight, continue their quest towards progressing to the Finals, it’s hard not to look at the roster constructed by general manager Sam Presti and begin the process of comparing it to another up-and-coming team from back in the day.

With Kevin Durant, the Thunder have their superstar. Their leader. Their face of the franchise.

At the peak of his powers, Durant is one of the best players in the NBA that surely deserves to be mentioned in the same breathe with LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and others.

But what makes Durant a rare commodity is that he’s a star player that is humble, selfless, and extremely team-oriented in every sense of the term. Durant’s latest national advertising campaign with Gatorade is all you need to know about him. The spotlight may be on Durant but he always goes out of his way to include his teammates, like on this year’s NBA preview cover of Sports Illustrated, making sure they’re recognized as well.

Plus, Durant is more than content playing in Oklahoma City, not seeking the limelight of bigger cities like New York and Los Angeles. Durant wants to play basketball, and doesn’t need to do it in a specific media market

Needless to say, Durant is unlike his attention-seeking peers.

Then there’s Russell Westbrook, a player that has blossomed into a star but is still trying to shape himself on the court. Westbrook isn’t perfect and his detractors will remind him every step of the way, as it seems like he’s learning on the job at 100 miles per hour. But Westbrook’s ascent as one of the best point guards has been one of the more notable developments in the league this season.

Westbrook is the ying to Durant’s yang and even though their collective equilibrium on offense sways wildly from side-to-side every so often, more so on Westbrook’s half, there’s no question that they’ve become a dynamic duo at the tender ages of 22.

Those seeking an example for the potential of a perfect symbiotic relationship between Westbrook and Durant should look no further than Game 7 of the 2011 Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies. Westbrook was the playmaker. Durant was the scorer.

Teams around the NBA would kill to be in the Thunder’s position of possessing two young stars with nearly limitless potential.

The Orlando Magic, more than most franchises, can relate to such being in such an envious position. Once upon a time, the Magic were the darlings of the league in the mid-’90s with two young stars en tow — Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway.

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It’s May and the Orlando Magic aren’t playing basketball right now.

Weird.

The last time the Magic weren’t playing basketball in May was in 2007 when they were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the first round, which was Brian Hill’s final year as the head coach. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy arrived, Orlando became accustomed to continuing their season beyond April to the months of May and June but not this time around.

Instead, the Magic are spectators and sitting at home after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

As such, it seems appropriate to look back at what happened in the postseason for Orlando and chime in on Dwight Howard‘s future with the franchise. So without further ado, welcome to Magic Basketball’s first in-house roundtable discussion.

Credit goes to Matt Scribbins for the questions.

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If ifs and buts were candy and Zaza head-butts, the Magic would still be in the playoffs. What is your #1 if?

Nate Drexler: It would have been nice to see a healthy Magic team in the playoffs. If Gilbert Arenas was at 100 percent for the second half of the season, for instance, things would have played out differently. I only say it because Hibachi is a tremendous player, and the reason so many people are frustrated with his huge contract and poor play is they know what a huge impact he can have on a team.  As for this season, he was dead wood. That is why my biggest “if” is having Gilbert mentally and physically peaked for the playoffs.

Danny Nowell: The biggest if, for me, is what if Hedo Turkoglu had been the same Hedo Turkoglu that propelled the 2009 run. I know, I know, it’s easy to make him a scapegoat—and it’s not like he’s getting younger, so maybe his decline is strictly about aging—but what else would the Magic have realistically been able to get that they needed? Jameer [Nelson] showed up in spurts, Dwight had an historically good series; I think the key could have been a big ball handler that was aggressive when he needed to be and a creator when he didn’t. Hedo’s play was almost the direct inverse of that.

Matt Scribbins: The Magic would still be in the playoffs if they had a legitimate option on offense besides Dwight Howard. With help from the Basketball Reference database, I learned only seven players since 1947 have made 20 or fewer shots while attempting 68+ in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu did just that this post-season and bricked his way into the record books.  Hedo, one of the worst shooters in NBA playoff history, actually out did himself and provided his worst playoff shooting performance ever.

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The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a two-part series — here’s Part I.

“What went wrong” is far less important right now than “what is going to happen next” for the Orlando Magic, but you cannot really answer the second question without giving a good look at the first. LeBron James’ trajectory and departure from Cleveland provides a significant blueprint for what to expect from Dwight this summer, and it does not look pretty.

I remember the 2009 season vividly. That fall I was meandering around the web, looking at preseason acquisitions and making predictions when certain names would stand out.

I raised my eyebrows when I saw the Cavs picked up Mo Williams, and then made a call to a friend of mine back home in St. Louis. Even though it had been a few weeks since the last time we caught up, the beginning of the conversation went something like this:

“Hello.”

“Uh, did you see that Cleveland got Mo Williams?”

“Oh, they did? Huh…”

“Dude, I think Lebron is going to get a ring this year.”

Obviously Mo Williams was not the reason the Cavs made a run at the Eastern Conference Finals, but here’s the point: When you have a superstar as your centerpiece, the rest becomes a chess game, and the winner of the game is the owner who can put the right pieces in place around your guy.

At that moment in the fall of 2008, I thought Dan Gilbert had done it, or at least had come close.

Since that move, Gilbert didn’t do a whole lot to improve LeBron’s situation. The Antawn Jamison pickup had moments of looking like a good move, but for the remainder of LeBron’s tenure as a Cav, Gilbert watched clumsily as LeBron kept being LeBron, kept empowering guys like Delonte West to max potential, and then fizzle out in the playoffs.

It is a sad story for Cleveland, but the demise of the Cavs and the departure of LeBron might have paved the way for guys like Dwight to have a much easier time come “decision time.”

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