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Dwight Howard’s future under the microscope
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Via Ken Berger of CBSSports.com:
Of the teams [Dwight] Howard is likely to consider when exercising his early-termination option after next season — sources say the Lakers, Knicks and Nets are the strong favorites — L.A. is the one with the most attractive trade assets. The massive contracts attached to the Lakers’ most desirable players also puts them in the rare position of being able to absorb either [Gilbert] Arenas or [Hedo] Turkoglu as a way to soften the blow for Orlando. [...]
The clincher, under current CBA rules that would govern any trades conducted before the deal expires July 1, would be assembling salaries in a way that would allow Orlando to get out from under their massive and ill-advised obligations to Turkloglu and/or Arenas. In all likelihood, the Lakers are the only team with the salaries and commensurate talent to pull it off.
If you’re the Magic, staring at an uncertain future with limited flexibility to build around Howard, you would feel pretty good about getting one of the world’s most skilled power forwards (Gasol), the only center in the league with the potential to rival Howard (Bynum, with an asterisk due to his history of knee injuries), or the league’s best sixth man (Odom, who has the ability to be so much more as a starter). Any one of them would be a better asset than Cleveland (James), Toronto (Chris Bosh), Denver (Carmelo Anthony), or Utah (Deron Williams) got for its departing superstar. Two of them would be a haul of talent that Magic GM Otis Smith simply wouldn’t be able to turn down.
But wait, there’s more.
I hear all kinds of mixed messages on Howard. One person told me Howard wants to be a Laker. Someone else said he wants Chris Paul to join him in Orlando. Another said his top priority is to sign a maximum contract, which would make a trade (either in-season or a summer 2012 sign-and-trade) the only way for him to land in Los Angeles.
Two plugged-in national reporters. And the words that stands out from their reports are ‘Howard’ and ‘Lakers’ — in the same sentence.
For Magic fans that don’t remember what it was like during the offseason in 1996 when Shaquille O’Neal signed with the Los Angeles Lakers as a free agent, get used to the chatter because it’s not going away any time soon. For Magic fans that do remember, it’s like reliving a nightmare that never ends.
After the Lakers crashed and burned against the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Western Conference Semifinals, in conjunction with the Orlando Magic’s premature exit in the first round of the playoffs at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks, it’s as if the Howard-to-Los Angeles narrative accelerated tenfold.
Right now, the record states that the Magic are a team that’s going nowhere with an MVP-caliber player that can exercise his early-termination option in 2012 while the Lakers, with head coach Phil Jackson’s departure, are in need of a face lift after getting swept by the Mavericks. Enter Howard, speculated by many to be the answer to Los Angeles’ woes.
But let’s take a step back. Until Howard figures out his intentions, one way or the other, the only things that writers and reporters are dealing with is mostly speculation and hearsay. It’s going to take time for the endgame to occur.
That being said, this is only the beginning.
Howard’s future will dominate the headlines in Orlando for the foreseeable future.
Orlando’s Dwight Howard headlines 2010-11 NBA All-Defensive First Team
Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images
Via the Orlando Magic:
Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, winner of the last three Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Awards, headlines the NBA All-Defensive First Team, the NBA announced today. Howard totaled 56 points overall, including 27 First Team votes.
Howard earned the 2010-11 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, becoming the first player to win the award three straight seasons. He led the league with 66 double-doubles, while ranking second in rebounds (14.1 rpg) and fourth in blocks (2.38 bpg). He recorded at least 1,000 rebounds and 100 blocked shots for the sixth straight year; since blocked shots were officially tracked in 1973-74, only Moses Malone has done it more (seven seasons). With Howard manning the middle, the [Orlando] Magic allowed 93.5 ppg, ranking fourth in that category.
Also selected to the All-Defensive First Team are guard Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics (39 points), forward LeBron James of the Miami Heat (38 points), forward Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics (33 points) and guard Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers (33 points). Garnett and Bryant each earn All-Defensive First Team honors for the ninth time, tying Michael Jordan and Gary Payton for the most in NBA history.
The NBA All-Defensive Second Team consists of guards Tony Allen of the Memphis Grizzlies and Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets, center Tyson Chandler of the Dallas Mavericks, forward Andre Iguodala of the Philadelphia 76ers and forward-center Joakim Noah of the Chicago Bulls.
The voting panel consisted of the NBA’s 30 head coaches, who were asked to select NBA All-Defensive First and Second Teams by position. Coaches were not permitted to vote for players from their own team. Two points were awarded for a First Team vote and one point was awarded for a Second Team vote.
The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel:
As the franchise attempts to sort out exactly what went wrong, where 2010-11 turned for the worse, they can point to a mystifying playoff shooting slump or to some superb clutch shots by the Atlanta Hawks’ Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson or even to a few unfortunate bounces of the basketball.
But the [Orlando] Magic likely would be better served to recall Dec. 18, the day their team completed two high-risk trades that would define their season and might limit many of their seasons to come.
The team acquired Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from the Phoenix Suns for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first-round pick and cash. The Magic also obtained Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis.
Those deals provided the Magic an immediate short-term infusion of energy and offensive skill that led to a nine-game winning streak in late December and early January. But the longer-term aftereffects weakened Orlando’s defense, put additional pressure on center Dwight Howard and didn’t give the team the additional offensive firepower it needed at playoff time. [...]
[Otis] Smith never could have foreseen that Richardson would get into an altercation with Zaza Pachulia that led to Richardson’s ejection for Game 3′s final minutes and Richardson’s subsequent Game 4 suspension. Smith also can’t be blamed for Richardson stepping on some broken glass while in bare feet last Tuesday, an accident that slowed Richardson in Game 5 and severely hobbled Richardson in Game 6.
Indeed, take away either the altercation or the accident, and the Magic might be preparing now for the playoffs’ second round.
But although Richardson displayed toughness, he didn’t develop into the consistent, dependable second scoring that the Magic needed to complement Howard on offense.
Neither did Turkoglu, who became more of a passer than a shooter after a mesmerizing 17-assist performance on Jan. 8 in Dallas. Indeed, Turkoglu made just over 29 percent of his shots in the playoffs and couldn’t match the quickness and explosiveness of his Atlanta counterpart, Josh Smith.
Starting in the next week or so, the rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a three-part series — specifically by Nate Drexler, Danny Nowell, and myself.
Key events will be analyzed on a macro and micro level.
The macro side of things will encompass general manager Otis Smith’s construction and, in some ways, deconstruction of a franchise that appeared in the 2009 NBA Finals, only to regress the next two years by losing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 and first round in 2011.
The micro side of things will touch on the signing of Rashard Lewis, a player that exemplified the rise and fall of the Magic in many ways. It’s Lewis’ arrival that triggered Orlando’s ascent to being one of the best teams in the NBA and it’s his eventual regression that signaled the end of that run of success. Also, the parallels between LeBron James (as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers) and Dwight Howard will be closely looked at, given that they are two players that have experienced similar career paths with the teams that originally drafted them. And like James, Howard’s future is under an intense microscope, given that everyone is trying to decipher whether he’ll remain with the Magic for the long-term or if he’ll move on and leave.
Stay tuned for these articles.
Dwight Howard finishes second in MVP voting
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Via ESPN.com:
Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose is the youngest Most Valuable Player award-winner in the history of the NBA.
The 22-year-old Rose was officially announced as MVP on Tuesday after leading the Bulls to a 62-20 record and No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
Rose finished with 113 first-place votes and 1,182 total points. The [Orlando] Magic‘s Dwight Howard finished second with three first-place votes and 643 points. The Heat’s LeBron James was third with 522 points, including four first-place votes, and the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant was fourth with 428 points and one first-place vote.
The Chicago-born point guard had a breakout third season, averaging 25 points, 7.7 assists and 4.1 rebounds. After a summer with the U.S. National team, Rose made a significant leap.
During the Bulls’ media day in September, Rose wondered aloud in front of the media why he couldn’t win the MVP award. Eight months later, Rose answered his own question.
Recap: Atlanta Hawks 88, Orlando Magic 85
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
The Atlanta Hawks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 88-85 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs. The Hawks are one win away from ending the Magic’s season, and exacting revenge from last year’s sweep in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals. Four free-throws from Joe Johnson helped seal the deal for Atlanta, as they helped to stave off Orlando from coming back and stealing Game 4 on the road. With 10.5 seconds left in regulation and the Magic trailing by three points, the basketball was put in Hedo Turkoglu‘s hands but he was unable to deliver with a game-tying shot to extend the game into overtime. It was a scenario in which Orlando sorely missed Jason Richardson, given that he’s been able to come through in crunch-time situations time and again. The Hawks were led by a balanced attack, as four players scored in double-figures. Jamal Crawford finished with 25 points and six assists, continuing his onslaught in the series as Atlanta’s sixth man. Johnson had 20 points and nine rebounds. Al Horford chipped in with 14 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists, while Kirk Hinrich contributed with 14 points. Dwight Howard had another dominant game, finishing with 29 points, 17 rebounds, and two blocks but a lack of support from his teammates has been the Magic’s downfall. Gilbert Arenas redeemed himself after poor performances in Games 1 and 2, as well as a no-show in Game 3, by putting up 20 points and five rebounds, giving Orlando a much-needed boost on offense even though it was in vain.
Dwight Howard and the future ahead
Photo by Fernando Medina
I don’t want to belabor the point, but it might take more than a billboard to keep Dwight Howard in Orlando next season.
This has been a backend conversation all season long, and while most Orlando fans have considered it foolishness that Dwight would ever up and leave Orlando, it’s starting to become evident that the Magic don’t have a lot to barter with.
Look at StayDwight.com, a website and foundation created by Ryan Totka to try to convince Dwight to stay in Orlando. It’s endearing, to be sure.
As the season started winding down and the playoffs loomed in the near distance, Magic fans and writers grew more and more skeptical of the Magic, and more and more in tune with this glaring problem of how to keep Dwight in Orlando.
Now we’re in the playoffs, and after Game 1, things look decidedly worse.
Dwight’s decision after this season remains a touchy one, and everyone, including Ryan Totka, knows it. In a section on his site titled, “Why Stay in Orlando,” Totka talks about the community and the economy, two things that, as seen before, don’t really matter to a competitive basketball player. If I’m Dwight Howard, I want a website that shows me with the use of advanced statistics that I have nothing to worry about in the next ten seasons. I want a breakdown of how a revamped bench and a healthy Gilbert Arenas will change things for the Magic. In other words, Dwight needs to know that if he stays in Orlando the Magic are going to win.
That’s not the message he’s getting right now.
Recap: Atlanta Hawks 103, Orlando Magic 93
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
The Atlanta Hawks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 103-93 to win Game 1 in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs. In one felt swoop, the Hawks were able to win a postseason game on the road and wrestle home-court advantage away from the Magic. The key for Atlanta was getting production from their starters, excluding Jason Collins, and Jamal Crawford. Five players scored in double-figures for the Hawks, including a team-high 25 points from Joe Johnson on 9-of-16 shooting from the field, and each of them were able to take over the game at different junctures. Orlando’s inability to slow down Atlanta offensively in the second and third quarters proved to be their downfall. The Hawks shot 72.7 percent in those periods and turned the ball over just three times, allowing themselves a chance to score on nearly every possession. Atlanta was able to make a number of jumpshots, many of them on open looks, and that was that. On the flipside, the Hawks’ strategy of allowing Dwight Howard to do whatever he wanted on offense worked, as they were able to contain every player on the Magic’s roster not named Howard and Jameer Nelson — another important factor. It’s the reason that Howard played the best game of his career and Orlando lost. Howard was dominant on both ends of the floor, tying a career-high with 46 points and 19 rebounds. Howard set a playoff franchise record by scoring 31 points in the first half and tied another record (with Tracy McGrady in 2003 against the Detroit Pistons) with the most points scored in a postseason game. It was a phenomenal effort by Howard but overlooked because the Magic were unable to come away with a victory. Nelson was also spectacular, starting off slow with one point in the first half but finishing with 27 points and six rebounds while setting a playoff franchise record by scoring the most points in a quarter with 20 in the third. In a lot of ways, it was a strange game for Orlando because their two best players performed to their maximums but the rest of the team faltered. It was a paradox in some ways.
The awards ballot
Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
With the regular season winding down and the postseason just a mere six days away, I figured I’d do what other writers have been doing lately — reveal my awards ballot. I know that I’m not a member of the Pro Basketball Writers Association, which means I do not have a say in who wins which award but I still wanted to engage in this exercise.
Most Valuable Player
| adj. +/- | net +/- | stat. +/- | PER | WARP | Win Shares/48 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | +13.08 | +9.4 | +7.10 | 26.0 | 20.2 | .235 |
| LeBron James | +10.05 | +11.4 | +8.65 | 27.2 | 20.1 | .243 |
| Chris Paul | +18.67 | +11.9 | +9.48 | 24.0 | 16.3 | .238 |
| Derrick Rose | +7.60 | +2.3 | +5.45 | 23.7 | 15.7 | .209 |
| Dwyane Wade | +7.42 | +8.2 | +6.62 | 25.2 | 16.4 | .216 |
With LeBron James teaming up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, coupled with ‘The Decision’ becoming a PR disaster, it’s no surprise that the race for the MVP award was wide-open this season. Voter fatigue was already going to be an issue for James in his quest for a third consecutive MVP, given that not even Michael Jordan accomplished the feat in his career. As such, it was going to take a historical year from James to overcome the many obstacles in his way for him to win the MVP but it didn’t happen. James’ numbers took a small hit across the board, with Wade’s presence being a corollary reason. That allowed a player like Dwight Howard to be his near equal statistically. When looking at their resumes and complete bodies of work, it’s hard not to choose between James or Howard for MVP — there’s no wrong answer between the two them.
Howard gets the nod because of many factors.
The improvements that everyone was waiting for from Howard were fulfilled, as he was able to maintain his efficiency on offense even with a career-high usage rate of 27.2 percent. The sign of a great scorer in the NBA is his ability to be efficient while shouldering a heavy load offensively, and Howard was able to do that this season. And it can’t be understated the type of impact Howard has when he’s not scoring, given that his presence in the low post allows the shooters for the Orlando Magic to enjoy plenty of open looks from the perimeter that wouldn’t come otherwise. Also known as the Shaquille O’Neal effect with Damon Jones as a prime example.
Likewise, Howard is vital to the Magic’s vaunted pick and roll attack that’s anchored by Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, with the threat of him being the roll man making it extremely difficult for opposing defenses to aggressively contain the pick and rolls. With a refined post game and a reliable mid-range jumper from 10-15 feet that he’s making at a rate (40.2 percent) better than the league average (39.4 percent), coupled with an underrated ability to pass out of double-teams effectively, Howard has all the tools offensively. It’s only at the free-throw line where Howard continues to struggle.
Critics are quick to point out Howard’s lack of involvement in crunch-time situations but that’s partly due to his teammates not getting him the basketball enough, plus head coach Stan Van Gundy not calling plays for him at times. Sometimes it’s as simple as Orlando needing a three-point shot in the closing seconds of a game. Even then, Howard’s ability to rebound and defend gets overlooked way too many times in discussions of players performing in the clutch.
And when it comes down to it, there’s not another player in the league that can impact a game defensively like Howard. Despite general manager Otis Smith acquiring acquiring Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas, thus becoming far weaker on defense in theory, the Magic are ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency — better than teams like the Miami Heat — thanks in large part to Howard’s ability to coerce opposing players into shooting jumpshots while limiting their chances at the free-throw line and devouring rebounds. Van Gundy’s schemes are a factor too, but Howard puts it into practice on countless possessions, which is the primary reason that Orlando defends post players better than any other team. Or that Howard is able to slow down a pick and roll, recover to the paint, and provide weak-side defense in one felt swoop. Was it mentioned that the Magic do the best job of limiting field goal attempts at the rim because of Howard’s intimidating presence in the lane? Indeed, Howard is an omnipresent defensive force.
Tuesday’s Magic Word
- Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com: “Ignore the regular season series between the [Orlando] Magic and Hawks because every game they played was inconsequential evidence of what to expect in this rematch of last year’s conference semifinals. The first meeting was before Orlando’s blockbuster trades; the second collision was during the Magic’s stomach virus epidemic, the third was the first game following the deals and the final contest was injury-plagued for the blue and white. While Jason Collins was credited for his willingness to body up on Dwight Howard in the regular season, I expect Superman to flourish and dominate against his counterpart in a seven-game series. I also anticipate Jameer Nelson to thrive against Kirk Hinrich, who the Hawks acquired at the trade deadline from the Wizards. One of the more intriguing matchups will be at the shooting guard spot with Joe Johnson and Jason Richardson – two explosive scorers and primetime players. Some of the most glaring curiosities will be injury related as Atlanta’s Josh Smith recently returned from a sprained knee and it remains unspecified whether Orlando’s J.J. Redick will be back after missing more than a dozen games with a lower abdominal strain.”
- John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com looks back at the top 10 moments for the Orlando Magic in the 2010-2011 NBA regular season. Here’s number one: “A sluggish Magic team given up for dead when it trailed the rival Heat by 18 points at halftime and by as much as 24 points in the second half awoke from its slumber and pulled off a comeback win for the ages. Once down 73-49 early in the third quarter, the Magic used runs of 22-7 (to end the third period) and 18-2 (to start the fourth quarter) – a shocking 40-9 spurt in all – for what very well could be the biggest regular-season victory in franchise history. The 24-point rally just missed equaling the all-time Magic record. Orlando’s comeback from 25 points down on Nov. 8, 1989 in Cleveland is the all-time franchise record. Orlando held LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to just 10 points combined in the second half after the Heat duo had 47 points in the first half. Wade did not have a field goal in the second half and James did not score in the fourth quarter.”
- Dwight Howard likes being the underdog.
- Tas Melas of The Basketball Jones makes his case for Howard and the MVP award.
- Matt Moore of CBSSports.com: “Orlando poneyed up for the new arena critics of small-markets allege the non-top cities never approve. Ownership elected to go above and beyond the cap, deep into the luxury tax. They were smart enough to draft, and develop, a franchise player, acquire a competitive and arguably brilliant head coach, surround the team with competent role players. When the 2009 team failed to get past the last challenge, management did not get complacent, and instead opted for the home-run move you’re supposed to make, according to many. Vince Carter, for all his Vince-Carter-ness, was still a legit star in the summer of 2009. They went for the big move. When that didn’t work out, they once again swung for the fences. You can’t say Otis Smith didn’t try. But here they are. Entering the playoffs as the worst seed they’ve been since 2008, with little to no momentum, and considered nothing more than after-thought in the playoffs. They are a speedbump in the road to the Finals for teams from Miami, Chicago, Boston. They gambled. They lost. And the worst part of all is this season may turn out to be the one that gives Dwight Howard an excuse to leave Orlando; it may be the one reflected on as what turns Howard away; it may be the year Orlando lost their franchise center, again.”
- Offensive rebounds aided the Orlando Magic’s victory against the Philadelphia 76ers.
- Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk is skeptical that Jason Collins will make a difference for the Atlanta Hawks in their first round matchup against the Magic in the 2011 NBA Playoffs: “Orlando has dominated this matchup in recent years, but Atlanta is counting on Jason Collins to change that. Sure, that will work.”
- Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus reveals his awards ballot.
- Atlanta and Orlando are two teams searching for respect in different ways.
- Britt Robson of Sports Illustrated: “Based on this regular-season performance, Orlando has to hope Howard remains loyal when he’s eligible to become a free agent after next season. That would enable the Magic — whose salary-cap situation doesn’t look pretty — to go back to square two in rebuilding around the 25-year-old center.”
Dwight Howard lacking hype and a rival
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
If there is one thing we know about Stan Van Gundy, it’s that he’s a pretty quiet guy, reticent to speak his mind to the media, and wholly above speaking publicly in any way that might ruffle fans’ or players’ feathers. That’s why we can be certain that earlier this week, when he made the following comments, Stan had no sort of ulterior motive or objective in mind:
“There’s no matchup for [Dwight Howard] that creates the excitement,” Van Gundy said. “If you got back to when the centers were king, you have Chamberlain-Russell and people say ‘Wow, that’s a match-up you look forward to.’ Now people look forward to Chris Paul against Derrick Rose.”
What Stan was saying, subtext aside, is that the lack of a nemesis is keeping Dwight Howard’s hype factor down. Well, is he right? There are a couple of different ways to approach this. First, let’s look at a crude measure of the league marquee, the 2011 All-Star rosters. Yao Ming aside, there are only three players who were listed either as centers or forward/centers. One of them was Kevin Love. Another was Al Horford. The third was Pau Gasol, who could be seen as a bona fide A-list big man, but I’m not sure that most people think of his battles in the same way they do LeBron/Kobe or Rose/Paul. The other big man on the list who might qualify is Kevin Garnett, and the popular narrative about the Celtics has been that Kendrick Perkins did the heavy lifting when it came to guarding D12. So, on the face of it, taking as limited a sample as I guess you could, it seems like Stan is right: there are currently no direct match-ups for Dwight that seem worthy of the hype that wing or point guard matchups might garner.
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