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Part I of this mini-series looked at the draft position of players who have recently appeared in the NCAA National Finals. Today, we will look at the teams who pursued these players, and how these players performed in the NBA. Tomorrow, Part III will explore two different one-and-done scenarios, and the NCAA Tournament history of players on top NBA teams. We will also see the “good ol’ days” are aptly named.

Winnersville, U.S.A.
Say what you want about the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they are a bunch of winners (at least on draft night). Since 2005, four of Minnesota’s eleven first round picks have played on NCAA Championship teams. They also picked champions in the second round, netting Mario Chalmers and Chris Richard. These players have not helped Minnesota become a #winning team so far. Actually, Wayne Ellington is the only player among the six still with the Wolves. Two different luminaries, Kevin McHale and David Kahn, have made draft picks for the team during this time.

Ironically, Jerry Sloan and the Utah Jazz welcomed three members of the runner-up 2005 Illinois team to town. They used the third overall pick of the 2005 draft on Deron Williams, and he eventually assisted Sloan’s exit from Salt Lake City. They drafted Dee Brown in the second round of 2006, and Roger Powell signed with the Jazz after his Illinois career.

The Bulls ended up with three members of the 2001 Duke team at various stages of their careers. They drafted Jay Williams second overall in 2002. Two years later, they used a second round pick on Chris Duhon. In the summer of 2010, their decision was signing Carlos Boozer to a five year contract. In total, the Bulls have had eight players from the last eleven champions wear their jersey (Williams, Duhon, Boozer, Joakim Noah, Hakim Warrick, Lonny Baxter, Chris Richard, Ben Gordon).

Five teams (Dallas, San Antonio, Boston, Sacramento, Phoenix) haven’t selected a player who appeared in the National Finals since the turn of the century. It is worth pointing out some of these teams are major players in basketball analytics.

The dichotomy between the Timberwolves draft results and some of the analytical squads’ results leads to an obvious question: do the more analytical teams ignore winners, while teams like Minnesota think winners will bring them out of the basement?

We at least know the Mavericks philosophy. I e-mailed Mavericks owner Mark Cuban yesterday and asked him why his team hasn’t drafted a player from the National Finals since he took over. He just chalked it up to happenstance. He went on to say it is “not intentional at all. We don’t care who they play for.”

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• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “Dwight’s practically invisible. His numbers have grown to ridiculous sizes lately, but you hear little chatter about his MVP candidacy. If it’s not LeBron James leading the conversation, it’s Derrick Rose. Or vice-versa. As a voter, I say [Dwight] Howard has joined them in the stretch run. He’s on the red carpet. He deserves the award if he can continue lifting the Magic with a stellar closing kick. Maybe Dwight can win over supporters the next two nights in head-to-head matches against King James and Rose in nationally televised contests. As if the Heat-Magic rivalry needs more spice, make no mistake: Dwight feels he’ll always have to overcome the LeBron lovefests to win the hardware. I go to great lengths to avoid bias, but the hometown guy has muscled into the lead pack. Wednesday, Howard was named the NBA’s player of the month (for February). He averaged 26.6 points and 14.8 rebounds per game while posting a league-leading field goal percentage of .667. Overall, he ranks ninth in scoring, second in rebounding, third in blocked shots. He’s never been better.”
• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “Dwight Howard better get used to more days like Tuesday. The Record newspaper, which is based in Bergen County, N.J., reported that New Jersey Nets Principal Owner Mikhail Prokhorov and General Manager Billy King recently spoke with point guard Deron Williams and told Williams that Dwight Howard tops the list of free agents the Nets plan to pursue. Understandably, a group of writers from New York area news outlets asked Howard before the Magic’s game against the New York Knicks if the Nets are any more ‘attractive’ now with Williams. ‘Orlando’s the most attractive place for me right now,’ Howard answered, a smile on his face. ‘They have a sexy new arena, a beautiful franchise, nice banners around here and been in the top four in the Eastern Conference for the past four years. Yes, Orlando’s the most attractive place right now.’ ”
• Shandel Richardson of the Sun-Sentinel: “Dwyane Wade and LeBron James have gotten used to it by now. It took them little time to realize the Miami Heat would be talked about more for their setbacks than progress. So it’s no surprise they are being picked apart by critics for their struggles against winning teams. With the Heat set to face a string a playoff contenders, beginning Thursday when they host the Orlando Magic, they would rather focus on their quality wins instead of losses. As James put it, ‘They just talk about our losses, they don’t talk about our wins.’ [...] The Heat, who are 12-15 against teams with winning records, will play the next 10 games against opponents that are in postseason contention. Two of those games are against the league-leading San Antonio Spurs. While coach Erik Spoelstra views this an opportunity, he refuses to say the stretch will define the season. Spoelstra said this simply is a portion of the schedule that begins with the Magic.”
• Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel: “In January, when Chris Bosh was dealing with ankle issues, there was a supposed epiphany. LeBron would go into the post. He would establish a post-up game that would continue to thrive even after Bosh’s return. While the early efforts were uneven, there at least were efforts. Because for all the things Bosh can be, one is not a true, back-to-the-basket presence. Then Bosh returned, and, well, after all the rhetoric, LeBron returned to his face-up, start-from-the-top approach. Soon all the talk about post-up LeBron was forgotten. Now comes the latest vow, one about a willingness to play off the ball with the arrival of Mike Bibby, the truest thing the Heat have had at point guard since Jason Williams handled the responsibilities during the championship run.”
• Joseph Goodman of The Miami Herald: “The Heat released Carlos Arroyo on Tuesday to make room for free agent point guard Mike Bibby, who is expected to sign with the team Wednesday afternoon. Arroyo, a fan favorite from Puerto Rico and FIU, was not with the Heat after Tuesday’s practice and coach Erik Spoelstra began his news conference by announcing Arroyo’s departure. LeBron James said he hated to lose “a brother” and Dwyane Wade said Arroyo ‘did nothing wrong’ to be let go. Arroyo started 49 games this season before being benched in favor of Mario Chalmers, who has played inconsistently. Now it appears likely Chalmers will lose his starting job to Bibby, who was traded from the Atlanta Hawks to the Washington Wizards before the Feb. 24 trade deadline.”
• Greg Cote of The Miami Herald: “The Miami Heat is admitting something here. Conceding something. It requires that ego and pride be set aside by both the builder, Pat Riley, and the foreman, Erik Spoelstra. It is a bit humbling for this franchise, but also smart, and necessary. The Big 3 is not enough. That is what this means. It may have been increasingly apparent, but this is Miami saying it to the rest of the NBA for the first time. ’We need help’ is what you mean when you are this eager – eager being a nice word for desperate – to sign a veteran, free agent point guard like Mike Bibby at a point on the NBA calendar when you hoped your team’s championship muscle and mettle would have been displayed for all, impervious to doubts and in no need of embellishment. Bibby’s arrival is expected to become official Wednesday.”
• Israel Gutierrez of The Miami Herald: “In that case, the Heat will have ample opportunity to turn that discussion in its favor over the next few weeks. The game against the Knicks began a run of 11 consecutive games against winning teams for Miami, and given that the margin of the Heat’s losses has been so minuscule of late, it’ll give the team several chances to fix what’s ailing it against the better teams. Of the Heat’s last six losses, all of them coming against winning teams, Miami has lost by an average of four points, with none of them coming by more than five. In all those losses, the Heat had chances to either hold a late lead or come back from a deficit. Each time, it the outcome ended in disappointment. And that’s what Wednesday’s practice was primarily about as the Heat prepared to play Orlando on Thursday.”
• Tom Haberstroh of The Heat Index: “The Heat are expected to sign free agent Mike Bibby after he was bought out by the Washington Wizards on Tuesday. As per league rules, the Heat will pay the 32-year-old point guard the prorated veteran minimum for the rest of the season. Bibby will replace Carlos Arroyo on the Heat roster, whom the Heat waived on Tuesday. Bibby has carved out a successful career in the NBA. He’s reached the playoffs eight times in 12 seasons while averaging 15.4 points and 5.7 assists per game. With a career 16.4 PER, he is probably one of the most accomplished point guards to never make the All-Star game, which admittedly sounds like a backhand compliment. But those above-average days are long gone. His quickness has gone by the wayside the last few seasons, something that tends to happen when players approach their mid-thirties, and his productivity has suffered as a result.”

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Later tonight, the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat will square off in a game that has a chance to be special. Or not. Right now, the Magic are a team struggling to right the ship.

Brandon Bass, the starting power forward for Orlando, is sidelined for the foreseeable future and the defense — predictably so — has fallen off a cliff quite a bit, even though head coach Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard oversee a unit that ranks fourth in defensive efficiency.

The Magic’s perimeter defense has been dreadful, at times, and when Howard is sitting on the bench, opponents have been more than happy to attack the basket because they know the big fella isn’t there to stop them. Ryan Anderson and, before his injury, Bass aren’t intimidating presences in the paint. This is an issue that needs to be resolved.

Not only that but after a hot start, Hedo Turkoglu has begun to slow down and he’s one of the reasons that Orlando has lost their way in recent weeks. During the Magic’s nine-game winning streak, Turkoglu was playing good-to-great basketball but recently, he’s been little better than average. If Jameer Nelson is seen as the heart of Orlando, then Turkoglu is the soul.

And right now, the Magic have been soulless lately.

The bright side is that Orlando still has time to fix their problems. A win against the Heat would be a good start, even if the Magic will have some troubles since they’ll be without the services of Bass.

To preview tonight’s proceedings, Surya Fernandez (writer at Hot Hot Hoops and contributor at NBA FanHouse) was kind enough to give his perspective on the latest happenings in Miami.

Fernandez provided his opinion where Udonis Haslem fits in with the Heat in crunch-time when he returns from injury, head coach Erik Spoelstra’s ability to get the most out of his players, and more.

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It’s a trick question, of sorts, but who’s more valuable to the Miami Heat — LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, or Chris Bosh?

With the way the roster has been constructed, the Heat need steady contributions from all three to win. Yes, they’ve shown they can sometimes win when one or even two are out but if the Heat want to make a deep run in the playoffs all three must be healthy and at the top of their games, period. So it’s almost impossible to identify which of the three is the most valuable. Admittedly the Heat looked positively lost on offense when Bosh was recently out. Wade and LeBron can somewhat duplicate what each other can bring to the offense but their defensive contributions in tandem are also critical to team success. Wade is the sentimental favorite but if push comes to shove and I have to pick one of them, I’d go with LeBron by a hair because of his versatility.

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Kristy Cannon/Orlandomagic.com

The statistical revolution in the NBA continues to evolve, but one person that’s been at the forefront of the new wave of numbers and deserves more limelight is Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.

Paine is one of the brightest minds in the APBRmetrics community, with some of his most notable contributions including the introduction of statistical plus/minus — which was a regression invented by Dan Rosenbaum — to a widespread audience and daily upkeep of the BBR Blog that includes a lot of insightful analysis of the NBA (including some articles that have sparked intense debate).

I’m also proud to say that I’ve collaborated with Paine in the past, conducting some quick-and-dirty research on Grant Hill and the ‘what if’ scenario involving the Orlando Magic. Click here for more information if that description is either interesting, vague, or both.

I’ve interviewed Paine in the past, but this is the first time I’ve conducted a Q/A with him since Magic Basketball was born nearly seven months ago. As always, it’s a pleasure to chat with Paine and gather his musings whenever possible.

A few days ago, I was able to ask Paine a few questions about the Magic, how they stack up against the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference, and more.

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A lot of people have said that the Orlando Magic matchup favorably with the Miami Heat because Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard are superior to their counterparts on the other side of the coin, assuming that either Carlos Arroyo or Mario Chalmers is the starter at point guard. What’s your take on that? Is that advantage enough to overcome the enormous advantages the Heat have at the other three positions?

The Magic definitely have certain areas where they are stronger than the Heat, and Dwight Howard in particular creates an interesting matchup for a Miami team that (I’m assuming) is going to be one of the most aggressive rim-attacking squads of all-time. One major question is whether Howard has improved his ability to make a defensive impact without fouling; if so, his presence inside could alter Miami’s game plan and take them away from some of their strengths. As for point guard, I’m not entirely sure [Jameer] Nelson‘s advantage matters so much as long as Miami finds somebody who can defend the position, because on offense LeBron is basically going to be their de facto PG.

The biggest advantage Orlando has is that they have a strong defense — led by a truly great defensive coach — which could possibly serve as the antidote to Miami’s #1 strength, their all-world offense. And at the other end of the court, the Magic have a solid offense that could take advantage of Miami’s biggest unknown quantity, their D.

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For Magic fans, Matt Guokas is a legend of sorts. Guokas will forever be linked with the beginning of the Orlando Magic, serving as the head coach of the 1989 expansion team that featured the likes of Terry Catledge, Jerry “Ice” Reynolds, Reggie Theus, among others, and remaining with the team until 1993 when Brian Hill replaced him after Shaquille O’Neal’s rookie year.

Fast forward to today, Guokas is the television color analyst for the Magic and will be teaming up with play-by-play announcer David Steele for their seventh year as a tandem. It should be noted that Guokas is a forward-thinking analyst, not afraid to cite metrics like team efficiency, pace, and whatever else. For team announcers, amidst the statistical revolution in the NBA, that’s still a rarity.

Did I mention that Guokas played with Wilt Chamberlain, Billy Cunningham, and Hal Greer with the Philadelphia Sixers, winning a championship alongside them in 1967 against the then-San Francisco Warriors? Good times.

Needless to say, Guokas’ experience and knowledge of the league is impeccable.

Yesterday, I was able to speak with Guokas about a variety of topics, including his thoughts on the new-look Miami Heat, Dwight Howard‘s continued development as a player, and more.

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What’s your take on the Miami Heat now that they have LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh?

Anytime you have three very, very talented guys like that, it’s going to be good.

They’re going to make some of the lesser players better, although there are big question marks with the other seven or eight guys that are going to have to do a lot of the playing. Most of them are veterans, have been around, and certainly can contribute like Mike Miller. Mario Chalmers has a few years under his belt.

They’ll be good. They’re still going to have … there’s going to be a lot of pressure obviously from being under the microscope. Any time there’s a game, there’s going to have to be all kinds of explanations as to how can a talented team do this and all that. I think they’ll be well-guided in terms of not paying so much attention to what it is they do record-wise in the regular season. They’re going to win a lot of games anyway. It’s just how they come together as a team and what their results are in the playoffs.

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• Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “The [Orlando] Magic/Heat rivalry has proven fairly one-sided in Orlando’s favor since 2007, but the Heat’s appearance has more to do with their future roster than the one that’s struggled against Orlando in the recent past. Indeed, among the 18 players the Heat have under contract, only Joel Anthony, Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, Jamaal Magloire, and Dwyane Wade have suited up as members of the Heat against Orlando. But in adding LeBron James this summer, Miami has certainly vaulted itself into championship contention, and made its relationship with the Magic more interesting. James’ incredible showing in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals wasn’t enough to get his Cavaliers over the hump against the Magic, but it did establish him as an individual rival of Orlando’s. And it’s valid to compare him to [Dwight] Howard, insofar as they’re both among the best players in the league who entered it just one year apart.”
• Dan Savage and Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com review Vince Carter‘s restaurant in Daytona Beach. Two thumbs up.
• Grade the Orlando Magic’s off-season.
• Dwight Howard: “How’s ya’ll’s summer going? Mine has been crazy traveling all over the world. I just got back last week from going to India for the NBA and China to shoot a new movie with my man, Carmelo Anthony. I know there has been a lot of talk about Melo getting traded this summer, but trust me ya’ll, we were just shooting a movie together and didn’t even talk ball that much. The movie is called, “Amazing” and will be out next summer, so I hope you guys can check it out!!!”
• Howard is also raising money for the earthquake relief efforts in Haiti.

• John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com: “I think Miami’s moves have absolutely lit a fire under players all around the NBA, and more specifically ones in Orlando. Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, [J.J.] Redick and others have already pointed out that every summer drill and track session is done with Miami in mind. It’s absolutely on this season between the Magic and the Heat. Those four regular-season games will be emotionally charged and likely tune-ups for the Eastern Conference Finals. One more thought to consider: Orlando’s two strongest positions (center with Dwight Howard and point guard with [Jameer] Nelson) are Miami’s two weakest spots. At the end of the day, Miami will still be stuck using Joel Anthony against Howard and Mario Chalmers against Nelson. That could be just enough of an advantage for the Magic to nullify Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and James.“
• Color me skeptical about that last comment.
• A look back at Dwight Howard’s time spent in India: “It took the Summer of 2010 for the NBA to once again to make its massive presence felt on the Indian shores, and that presence came in the form name of Dwight Howard. Suddenly, ‘Superman’ became sort of the flavor of the month amongst the basketball circles in India, and for a country full of many, many flavors and masalas, he came in as a hell of a big deal. Dwight was in India from August 10-14, sandwiching his visit here between a couple of visits to East Asian countries like China and Taiwan. Although the popularity of the NBA popularity in India still has a long way to go to match those other countries, it has been growing rapidly in recent years. [...] Over the past few days, Howard has brought his message of the joys of basketball to India, visiting Bangalore and New Delhi in his tour. India is a country that sorely lacks modern sport infrastructure and facilities, but Howard said that this shouldn’t deter young players from working on improving their athletic ability.”
• Head coach Stan Van Gundy on the Miami Heat: “If I look at what the Bulls did winning 72 games and I look at the Heat roster, I am going to tell you that the Heat roster is better than any roster that Michael Jordan played with the Bulls. I don’t think that people predicting them breaking the win total and being in the 70s and the whole thing, I don’t think those are expectations that are out of line based on their roster… Dwyane Wade is certainly, in my opinion anyway, as good as he was, is better than Scottie Pippen. Chris Bosh is better than Toni Kukoc. Mike Miller is every bit as good a shooter as (John) Paxson or (Steve) Kerr or anybody they put there. Plus, he’s 6′8″. If you start going down the list, I don’t think there is any question that the roster the Heat have is as talented a roster if not more so as any roster there has ever been in the NBA.”
• Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk thinks Van Gundy is engaging in reverse psychology.
• Where will Chris Paul play in 2013? Orlando could be a possibility: “Naturally, Paul wants to play with a dominant center, and a PG-C tandem of Paul and Dwight Howard would be devastating, perhaps one of the best in league history — just look at what Paul accomplished with Tyson Chandler as his big man in New Orleans. The Hornets are doing all they can to keep Paul happy, but if he still wants out, they’ll have to listen to offers eventually unless they want a disgruntled face of the franchise. The Magic might be able to deliver the best deal out there, a package starting with All-Stars Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter, who has essentially just one year of guaranteed money left on his contract.”
• Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference takes a look at which offensive rate stats are the most consistent when players change roles on a team. Paine looks at True Shooting Percentage, assist percentage, turnover percentage, free throw rate, and offensive rebound percentage. Here’s what he found: “As far as the correlations themselves go, offensive rebounding % and assist rate seem to be almost completely independent of a player’s role — i.e., if a player has a good assist rate at 15% possession usage, you can basically expect that to be retained even at 25% possession usage, etc. Perhaps it is because those two stats measure tendency as much as ability, although there’s certainly skill being captured in each as well. True shooting % is easily the least consistent stat when a player changes roles, which seems to back up the concept of skill curves. When a player has a high TS% and a low possession %, it may be that his efficiency is inflated by taking relatively easy shots, attempts that comprise a smaller proportion of his shot selection when he is asked to increase his usage. Along the same lines, turnover rate was the 2nd-least consistent offensive rate stat when changing roles, suggesting that not only is shooting % dependent on the player’s usage, but the ability to avoid turnovers is as well. Finally, free throw rate was in the middle of the pack in terms of correlations.”
• Can intangibles be quantified? Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus searches for an answer.

• George Diaz of the Orlando Sentinel: “There were about 50 foster kids in the auditorium Wednesday afternoon. David Vaughn’s story did not resonate with all of them, but hopefully a handful of faces in the crowd heard every word, and found strength in his journey sprinkled with desperation and determination. Vaughn told them about his highs as a first-round draft pick of the Orlando Magic in 1995, the $1.8 million contract, the cars and all the other extravagant toys; his lows of depression and violence, and how he ended up as a wayward husband, homeless and destitute. ”It’s a great experience to share my story,” Vaughn said. David Vaughn’s comeback likely won’t be documented in Sports Illustrated or ESPN, but it is worth telling because it reflects a tenacity not often seen on the competitive fields of play.”
• Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk: “Nobody is going to be better than the Miami Heat at the two, three and four spots. But picture them playing Orlando. Jameer Nelson has the ball (guarded by Mario Chalmers) and Dwight Howard (covered by Joel Anthony) comes out to set the high pick. That is a hard-to-stop P&R combo for any team, and the undersized Anthony is really going to struggle to stop the strength of Howard rolling to the rim. LeBron, Wade and Bosh are going to have a hard time helping out because you can’t leave Orlando’s perimeter shooters (especially when J.J. Redick is in for Vince Carter). Can Orlando beat Miami this way? Can some combination of the O’Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine) along with Kendrick Perkins (when he returns from injury) do the same thing for Boston? Is there a model for beating the Heat?”
• Chad Ford and John Hollinger of ESPN Insider update their NBA Future Power Rankings. The Magic fall from No. 3 last year to No. 7 this year: “We liked Orlando’s roster the best in March, but now the Magic don’t even have the best roster in Florida. Plus, we’re focused down the line, past this coming season, and that hurts the outlook for four of the five Magic starters. Nonetheless, this team looks stacked for the long term with Dwight Howard at center and a constellation of minor stars surrounding him. Additionally, keep an eye on young forward Ryan Anderson, who could become a better version of Troy Murphy. Orlando’s market looms as another big factor in its favor. With a new arena, a balmy climate and a dominant big man, it’s already near the top of Chris Paul’s short list of future destinations and could pop up on other players’ lists, too. The only major concern is the serious money the team is taking on. Orlando is a small market, but the team is well into the luxury tax and probably will remain that way for a while unless ownership demands a budget slashing. For now, it hasn’t, and with that, solid personnel moves under GM Otis Smith and the exacting coaching of Stan Van Gundy, the Magic get good marks for management.”
• Dwight Howard is one of the best bargains in the league.
• Rob Mahoney of The Two Man Game drops some knowledge: “To those still clinging to what they know, I’d ask this: what’s a power forward? What characteristics link Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Rashard Lewis, Lamar Odom, Reggie Evans, Tyrus Thomas, and J.J. Hickson? Not rebounding. Not scoring. Not skill set. Not height relative to their teammates. Not even the spaces they occupy on the floor. I’m at a total loss as to the criterion that would group that bunch together, which makes the assessment “Player X isn’t a real power forward” pretty much worthless. I think I know what it means, but without the ability to define the contemporary power forward, how could I really know for sure?”
• Here is the inspiration for Mahoney’s post, by the way. The topic is about traditional positions.

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Via Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Dwight Howard was back in his hometown Friday, thrilling a group of kids from the Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Atlanta who had no idea the Orlando Magic star and Atlanta native was coming for lunch. But before he took questions, he had one request.

“Please, no questions about the Miami Heat,” he said. “I was just over in China for two weeks and that’s all I heard: ‘What do you think about LeBron?’”

Nonetheless, Howard granted this corner of the blogosphere a few minutes to discuss a few items of interest to Atlanta fans: The Heat, the Hawks and Shaquille O’Neal. [...]

On fans conceding the Eastern Conference to the Heat, following the free agent signings of James and Chris Bosh and the re-signing of Dwyane Wade: “We don’t think about it like that. They’ve still got to play games. It looks good on paper. It looks good playing a video game. But this is real life. We’re looking forward to playing them. They’re going to be a real good team but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win a championship.”

A little late with this one.

The purpose of this post isn’t to provide commentary on Dwight Howard’s comments, but instead expand upon his thoughts on the Miami Heat and their potential as a team next season. The games won’t start until late October, when the 2010-2011 NBA regular season gets underway, but that hasn’t stopped a number of statisticians from crunching the numbers and coming up with various projections for how the Heat may fare. Despite the inherent differences in the systems, adjusted plus/minus, statistical plus/minus, PER, and WARP come to similar conclusions.

Miami is going to be good.

– Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference, using statistical plus/minus:

Like Hollinger, we’ll be conservative with the expected values next season… Let’s give LeBron a +11 (which would be his lowest since 2006-07), Wade a +8 (basically what he did in 2006), and Bosh +3 (a little less than his mark from 2009). Also, we’ll use -3 as our replacement-player value, so we’ve got 3,100 minutes of James at +11, 2,850 minutes of Wade at +8, 2,600 minutes of Bosh at +3, and 11,130 minutes of -3 replacement-level ballers. How many games would that team win?

Doing the math, that allocation of minutes works out to a projected +7.95 efficiency differential. Wanna know which team had at least a +7.95 differential last season? Only one: the Orlando Magic, who were +8.12. Traditionally, a +7.95 differential buys you 61 wins, which is actually exactly what Hollinger came up with. So in the absolute worst case, the Heat win 61 games next season with their Big Three, and are the best team in the East, if not the league. And what if they merely play at last year’s levels?

Expect a +10.6 differential, which equals 68 wins.

… and adjusted plus/minus:

APM paints an even rosier picture for the “Holy Trinity” (or whatever we’re going to call them)… Last year, James had a +18.52 rating, 2nd only to Dwight Howard, and Wade was 4th with +16.09, while Bosh had “only” a +6.97 rating. Mark them down for even +10, +6, and +5, respectively (their 5-year low-water marks when healthy), and with Hollinger’s expected minutes this team would have a +7.0 differential, good for 59 wins. And remember, that’s if they are as bad as they’ve been in 5 years, surrounded by nothing by the cream of the NBDL’s crop.

If they play like they did last year, the Heat’s differential would be a monstrous, Redeem Team-esque +21.2, which I can’t even give a wins estimate for because it breaks the linear equation that relates efficiency differential to winning % (it would have them winning more than 100% of their games). No team has ever had that kind of performance in the history if the NBA, meaning there is a pretty decent chance they’d obliterate the ’96 Bulls’ record for most wins in a season.

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Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images

Welcome to Miami Thrice.

There are a number of nicknames that are being used to illustrate the union of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. Some complimentary, some not. Yet there are a number of adjectives that can also describe the newly-formed trio. ‘Unpredecented’ is, perhaps, the most appropriate one to label an alliance that has shaken the foundation of the NBA at its core. Never before has the best player in the league during his time, whether it’s James right now or Michael Jordan back then (this group is close), united with talents like Wade and Bosh in the prime of their careers. It’s unheard of. Yes, there have been “Big Threes” that have been talented to varying degrees, but this triumvirate is in rarified air. And the epicenter of the earthquake that occurred yesterday was located in Miami and the tremors are emitting to Orlando.

In one felt swoop, the Miami Heat have transformed themselves from being a playoff team to a title contender — regardless of the seven players that will be needed to fill out the roster (Mike Miller appears to be accounted for, alongside Mario Chalmers). Likewise, after three years of reigning at the top of the Southeast Division with no legitimate challengers to dethrone them, the Orlando Magic have to deal with the Heat. The irony is that Miami was in the same boat from 2005 to 2007, but didn’t have a challenge until the last year when the Washington Wizards finished three games behind them in the division. Just like the Magic this year with the Atlanta Hawks.

It’s been said elsewhere but even though the rivalry between Orlando and Miami exists, given that they’re in the same state, same division, and all that, the rivalry hasn’t seen many fireworks over the years. The playoff duel in 1997 is one to remember, and when Shaquille O’Neal joined the Heat in 2005, that stoked the fires of the rivalry a little bit. Sure, there’s some animosity between both franchises when head coach Stan Van Gundy chose to coach the Magic in 2007 and president Pat Riley demanded, and received, compensation to allow the transaction to go through, which strained the relationships of the two teams. Can’t forget the storyline getting set up in the first place after Riley “replaced” Van Gundy in 2006, ultimately leading Miami to their first and only championship. Of course, there’s the humorous history of players having played for both franchises at some point in their careers. A list that includes Ike Austin, Rony Seikaly, and others. The point is, there’s always been skirmishes between Orlando and Miami. That’s it.

Now?

The Magic and the Heat are elite teams. Together. Never before have Orlando and Miami competed for championships at the same time … until now. Rest assured, it’s going to be a bloodbath. A slugfest. A war. Aside from the rivalry between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, the Magic and the Heat have the makings of being one of the most intense rivalries not only in the NBA but in sports in general. All of the elements are there and in a way, Magic fans should enjoy watching the drama unfold. ‘Beat the Heat’ becomes a relevant chant again, for instance. Miami has always been Orlando’s natural rival but it truly means something now. These are two teams vying for a title and three of the top five players in the league are going to be the actors in a script that everyone is dying to read.

So what does the Heat acquiring James, Wade, and Bosh mean to the Magic?

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