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3-on-3 roundtable: The past, present, and future of the Orlando Magic

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It’s May and the Orlando Magic aren’t playing basketball right now.
Weird.
The last time the Magic weren’t playing basketball in May was in 2007 when they were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the first round, which was Brian Hill’s final year as the head coach. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy arrived, Orlando became accustomed to continuing their season beyond April to the months of May and June but not this time around.
Instead, the Magic are spectators and sitting at home after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.
As such, it seems appropriate to look back at what happened in the postseason for Orlando and chime in on Dwight Howard‘s future with the franchise. So without further ado, welcome to Magic Basketball’s first in-house roundtable discussion.
Credit goes to Matt Scribbins for the questions.
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If ifs and buts were candy and Zaza head-butts, the Magic would still be in the playoffs. What is your #1 if?
Nate Drexler: It would have been nice to see a healthy Magic team in the playoffs. If Gilbert Arenas was at 100 percent for the second half of the season, for instance, things would have played out differently. I only say it because Hibachi is a tremendous player, and the reason so many people are frustrated with his huge contract and poor play is they know what a huge impact he can have on a team. As for this season, he was dead wood. That is why my biggest “if” is having Gilbert mentally and physically peaked for the playoffs.
Danny Nowell: The biggest if, for me, is what if Hedo Turkoglu had been the same Hedo Turkoglu that propelled the 2009 run. I know, I know, it’s easy to make him a scapegoat—and it’s not like he’s getting younger, so maybe his decline is strictly about aging—but what else would the Magic have realistically been able to get that they needed? Jameer [Nelson] showed up in spurts, Dwight had an historically good series; I think the key could have been a big ball handler that was aggressive when he needed to be and a creator when he didn’t. Hedo’s play was almost the direct inverse of that.
Matt Scribbins: The Magic would still be in the playoffs if they had a legitimate option on offense besides Dwight Howard. With help from the Basketball Reference database, I learned only seven players since 1947 have made 20 or fewer shots while attempting 68+ in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu did just that this post-season and bricked his way into the record books. Hedo, one of the worst shooters in NBA playoff history, actually out did himself and provided his worst playoff shooting performance ever.
The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic

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Via Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel:
As the franchise attempts to sort out exactly what went wrong, where 2010-11 turned for the worse, they can point to a mystifying playoff shooting slump or to some superb clutch shots by the Atlanta Hawks’ Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson or even to a few unfortunate bounces of the basketball.
But the [Orlando] Magic likely would be better served to recall Dec. 18, the day their team completed two high-risk trades that would define their season and might limit many of their seasons to come.
The team acquired Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from the Phoenix Suns for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first-round pick and cash. The Magic also obtained Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis.
Those deals provided the Magic an immediate short-term infusion of energy and offensive skill that led to a nine-game winning streak in late December and early January. But the longer-term aftereffects weakened Orlando’s defense, put additional pressure on center Dwight Howard and didn’t give the team the additional offensive firepower it needed at playoff time. [...]
[Otis] Smith never could have foreseen that Richardson would get into an altercation with Zaza Pachulia that led to Richardson’s ejection for Game 3′s final minutes and Richardson’s subsequent Game 4 suspension. Smith also can’t be blamed for Richardson stepping on some broken glass while in bare feet last Tuesday, an accident that slowed Richardson in Game 5 and severely hobbled Richardson in Game 6.
Indeed, take away either the altercation or the accident, and the Magic might be preparing now for the playoffs’ second round.
But although Richardson displayed toughness, he didn’t develop into the consistent, dependable second scoring that the Magic needed to complement Howard on offense.
Neither did Turkoglu, who became more of a passer than a shooter after a mesmerizing 17-assist performance on Jan. 8 in Dallas. Indeed, Turkoglu made just over 29 percent of his shots in the playoffs and couldn’t match the quickness and explosiveness of his Atlanta counterpart, Josh Smith.
Starting in the next week or so, the rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a three-part series — specifically by Nate Drexler, Danny Nowell, and myself.
Key events will be analyzed on a macro and micro level.
The macro side of things will encompass general manager Otis Smith’s construction and, in some ways, deconstruction of a franchise that appeared in the 2009 NBA Finals, only to regress the next two years by losing in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 and first round in 2011.
The micro side of things will touch on the signing of Rashard Lewis, a player that exemplified the rise and fall of the Magic in many ways. It’s Lewis’ arrival that triggered Orlando’s ascent to being one of the best teams in the NBA and it’s his eventual regression that signaled the end of that run of success. Also, the parallels between LeBron James (as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers) and Dwight Howard will be closely looked at, given that they are two players that have experienced similar career paths with the teams that originally drafted them. And like James, Howard’s future is under an intense microscope, given that everyone is trying to decipher whether he’ll remain with the Magic for the long-term or if he’ll move on and leave.
Stay tuned for these articles.
Tuesday’s Magic Word
- Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy inadvertently disclosed his master plan for slowing the Atlanta Hawks tonight in Game 5 of the teams’ first-round playoff series. It involves Dwight Howard. ‘I don’t want to give away a big secret here before the game,’ Van Gundy told the media, ‘but he’s not going to get a lot of rest.’ Hey, at least Van Gundy has a sense of humor even with his team trailing three games to one and facing elimination. At the top of the Magic’s to-do list tonight: Shoot the ball better, defend the perimeter better and start much better than they have recently. ‘If we get one win, we’re gonna win the whole thing,’ Howard said. ‘We just need one win, stay confident, keep believing, just play hard for the 48 minutes. Usually when you do that great things happen.’ ”
- Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “Gilbert Arenas put together his most memorable game as a member of the Orlando Magic Sunday night, scoring 20 points off the bench in the Magic’s 88-85 Game 4 loss to the Atlanta Hawks. He did the majority of his damage running high pick-and-rolls with Dwight Howard, scoring 15 points (7-of-13 shooting) in such situations. And a majority of those points came when attacking the hoop after using the screen. For Magic fans, it was a welcome sight to see someone besides Dwight Howard attacking the rim. He still lacks the explosiveness and jumping ability from early in his career, but at least he’s willing to go strong at the hoop to score or draw a foul. That’s a big reason why many fans are hoping to see more from Arenas tonight, even though they’ve been dogging the guy for the past five months. But things won’t be so easy for Arenas in tonight’s Game 5.”
- Jason Richardson vows to be smarter on the court.
- Eight teams in NBA history have recovered from a 3-1 series deficit and won.
- Zach Lowe of The Point Forward: “A win Tuesday might not change the long-term picture for Howard, and it doesn’t necessarily mean GM Otis Smith was wrong to think the Jason Richardson/[Hedo] Turkgolu/Arenas combination might give the Magic a better chance to win it all this season. Marcin Gortat was always going to be a role player in Orlando, Vince Carter hasn’t exactly killed it in Phoenix, and Rashard Lewis was an injury-prone non-factor in Washington. They might have fit Stan Van Gundy’s system a little better than the guys the Magic received — Vince Carter can still work a pick-and-roll, and a healthy Lewis is probably better all around than his power forward replacements — but Orlando’s current situation might not be much different today had Smith declined the trades.”
- John Schuhmann of NBA.com: “This isn’t the first time Collins has had success in defending Howard. In 591 career games in which he’s played at least 25 minutes (including postseason), his two lowest scoring games came against Collins and the Nets. Collins held Howard to two points on 1-for-5 shooting on March 13, 2005 and to one point on 0-for-6 shooting on Jan. 20, 2007. The Collins Effect goes beyond Howard’s numbers. By defending Howard one-on-one, Collins allows his teammates to stay at home on the perimeter. The Magic are shooting a league-low 29.1 percent from five feet or beyond in the postseason, and just 26.5 percent when Collins is on the floor. If the Magic are going to extend the series with a win tonight in Game 5 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV), they’ll need to start making some shots. But that’s proven to be difficult with the Hawks’ no-stats MVP on the floor.”
- Head coach Larry Drew is confident.
- Austin Link of ESPN Insider: “Based off of their regular season shooting prowess, there was only about a 1-in-300 chance of the Magic shooting that poorly from 3-point land so far. Put another way, if Orlando had simply matched its regular season long ball form so far, it would be 42 points better in a series in which its overall scoring margin is only -11 points across all four games to date. If they can turn the shooting around and Howard continues to exert his influence, the Magic can not only get through the first round, but could even challenge the Chicago Bulls in the second. Right now we give the Magic only about 25 percent odds of a comeback, however, so the chances that they’ll get the opportunity to face the Bulls aren’t good.”
- Jemele Hill of ESPN.com thinks Doc Rivers should replace Stan Van Gundy as head coach of the Orlando Magic: “As good a tactician as Van Gundy is, the Magic play like a team that can’t go any further under his direction. When Orlando traded for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Gilbert Arenas this season, the hope was that the new faces would spark a return run to the NBA Finals, where Orlando lost in five games to the Lakers two years ago. Instead, the Magic have flat-lined. Orlando’s flashes of brilliance have been undermined by even larger stretches of underachievement.”
- John Hollinger of ESPN Insider: “You’d be excused for thinking Atlanta was the one with the better scoring margin based on the first four games of this series. The Hawks would already be prepping for the second round if not for some bizarre coaching choices in the second quarter of Game 2, thanks to a shockingly good defensive effort against the league’s 10th-best regular-season offense.”
- Nate Drexler makes an appearance in ESPN.com’s 5-on-5 writer roundup.
- The Magic and San Antonio Spurs share a lot of similar philosophies on both ends of the floor, which has allowed both franchises to be successful, but they’re close to reaching the end of the road in the 2011 NBA Playoffs much earlier than expected.
The enigmatic and erratic Orlando Magic

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When it comes to championship contenders in the NBA, there’s five teams that are universally agreed upon — for the most part. Ranking them by their efficiency differentials, they are the Miami Heat (+8.6), Chicago Bulls (+8.1), Los Angeles Lakers (+6.6), San Antonio Spurs (+6.6), and Boston Celtics (+6.2). And since their trades, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets get pub too.
Then there’s the Orlando Magic, sandwiched in between those teams with an efficiency differential of +6.6, right between the Lakers and Spurs.
At the start of the regular season, the Magic were widely regarded as a threat to win a title. And when Orlando jumped out to a 15-4 start to the year, they were fulfilling everyone’s expectations. There were no surprises. Then the month of December came and everything fell apart for the Magic in a hurry. Orlando hit a stretch of nine games where they only won once. A lack of energy and effort from the players on a consistent basis, plus the regression of Rashard Lewis and others aided in the Magic’s fall from grace. Scoring, which was supposed to be Orlando’s strength since they finished 4th in offensive efficiency last season, faltered and suddenly the offense became an average unit. General manager Otis Smith attempted to rectify the problem by acquiring Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas in two separate trades on December 19. For a time, it looked like Smith’s gamble paid off, as the Magic roared to a nine-game winning streak (tying a franchise record) that could have been longer had the basketball bounced in their favor in games against the New Orleans Hornets and Thunder that each resulted in losses. Nevertheless, it appeared as if Orlando fixed their woes and the chemistry seemingly improved. The acquisitions provided the Magic with the jolt of life they needed, especially offensively. But the honeymoon soon ended, as Orlando regressed to the mean on offense, and Smith was back where he started with the roster, except it can be argued things got worse than better.
For all the scoring that Turkoglu, Richardson, and Arenas were to provide, Smith sacrificed defense, depth, and size to get it. As the Magic began to come down from earth offensively, it soon became clear that they got weaker. Even though Orlando remains third in defensive efficiency, thanks in large part to Dwight Howard and Van Gundy, when the big fella is on the bench, the interior defense has been compromised without the presence of Marcin Gortat. Depth, the Magic’s calling card last year, is nearly gone now that only J.J. Redick and Ryan Anderson can be relied upon to contribute consistently. Free agent signees, Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon, have done little to help the cause. As for Orlando’s size, with Lewis and Gortat absent, they have gone from big to little. In the league, size is needed to win championships and the Magic had it with Howard and Lewis manning the frontcourt with Gortat, Bass, and Anderson coming off the bench. But the trades reshuffled things, and have put a lot of pressure on players like Howard to stay on the floor and avoid foul trouble. Earl Clark is an intriguing prospect, but he’s not a player that Van Gundy can rely upon and trust at the moment. Sure, it’s true that Mickael Pietrus, Lewis, and Carter are not playing right now due to various injuries but there’s no denying that Orlando isn’t the same team.
It’s been an interesting season for the Magic.
The question is, following the aftermath of everything that’s occurred, whether or not they’re a team that can be taken seriously in the playoffs?
Interview with Bret LaGree of Hoopinion

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One is fun, but twice is nice.
That’s the theme surrounding the series between the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks, as they face off in the playoffs for a second consecutive year.
Last season in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Magic swept the Hawks by an average margin of victory of 25 points — the worst four-game sweep in league history. However, the tables turned as Atlanta was able to win the season series against Orlando, losing once in their four head-to-head meetings.
What changed? With head coach Larry Drew making the decision to start Jason Collins at center, that’s allowed the Hawks to defend Dwight Howard one-on-one while also defending the Magic’s shooters on the perimeter. Also, the trickle-down effect of starting Collins at center has allowed Atlanta to play Al Horford at the power forward position and Josh Smith at small forward, which has created mismatches in their favor, given that they’re being defended by the likes of Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, and Hedo Turkoglu. Unfortunately for Orlando, Horford is too strong and skilled for either Bass or Anderson, while Smith is too athletic for Turkoglu. On the flipside, Horford is more than capable of defending Bass or Anderson on the perimeter, while Smith has the luxury of being a menace on the weak-side since he isn’t being dragged to the three-point line by Turkoglu as much as he was when Rashard Lewis was matched up against him.
Yes, things are different this time around and even though the Hawks’ efficiency differential is -1.4, which isn’t good, they have the personnel that will challenge the Magic much more than they did last year. It should be an interesting series to watch unfold.
A few days ago, I was able to ask Bret LaGree of Hoopinion a few questions to preview the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs between the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks.
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Given what occurred last season, how might the matchup between the Magic and Hawks be different this time around?
It’s really hard to lose four playoff games by 101 cumulative points. Only been done once! I don’t think either team is as good as they were last season which should make things more competitive even if the difference between the two teams is similar. This assumes it takes one really good team to create an historic margin of victory and, as teams are pulled together closer toward mediocrity they, by their very nature, become more evenly matched even as the quality of basketball declines.
Recap: Atlanta Hawks 85, Orlando Magic 82
In a first round playoff preview between rivals from the Southeast Division, the Atlanta Hawks were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 85-82. With the victory, the Hawks win the season series 3-1 — a complete reversal of fortune from the previous season when the Magic had their way against them in the regular season and the postseason. Like Orlando’s game against the New York Knicks, this game went down to the wire. With less than a minute to go in the fourth quarter, Jameer Nelson was able to make a layup in the lane to tie things up at 82. On the ensuing possession, Atlanta ran a 1/2 pick and roll with Kirk Hinrich and Joe Johnson, an excellent play-call by head coach Larry Drew, and Johnson was able to exploit the confusion in pick and roll coverage by Nelson and Jason Richardson, waltzing his way into the paint for a floater. The shot gave the Hawks a two-point lead, but the Magic still had a chance to tie or take the lead depending on preference. Head coach Stan Van Gundy drew up a play during Orlando’s timeout for Nelson, given that he had success throughout the evening in exploiting Atlanta’s perimeter defense off the dribble. The Magic ran a 1/5 pick and roll with Nelson and Dwight Howard, with Nelson attacking the basket and putting up a floater. But Nelson missed the shot and Jason Collins retrieved the rebound for the Hawks. It’s blind luck for Orlando that Collins rebounded the basketball because he was immediately fouled and given that he’s a poor free-throw shooter, the percentages were not in his favor to make both free-throws and ice the game. Collins badly missed the first free-throw, but made the second to give Atlanta a three-point lead with 5.7 seconds left in regulation. Van Gundy called another timeout, drawing up a play for Hedo Turkoglu. Some questioned whether or not the Hawks were going to foul, given that they were up by three points with roughly five seconds left in the fourth quarter. Usually that’s the time to foul, but Atlanta chose not to. Richardson got the ball at the top of the key and almost hesitated, seemingly as if he was waiting for the Hawks to foul but they didn’t. Richardson let a few seconds go by, then passed the basketball to Turkoglu as he was coming around a screen at the three-point line. Turkoglu caught the ball, but missed the shot and the Hawks won. It was poor execution by the Magic and it’s hard to believe they couldn’t have gotten a better look at a three-pointer.
The importance of the three-point shot

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Remember back in 2009 when the Magic knocked off the seemingly unbeatable Cavs in the Conference Finals by shooting 41 percent from deep for the entire series? Sometimes I wonder if this year’s squad is the same type of team as that NBA Finals team. That is, I wonder if this team lives and dies by the three-point shot like they did in the days of Lewis and Pietrus. Jeff Van Gundy seems to think so. He never fails to point that out when the Magic go on a big run. The reliance on the three-ball was evident this year when the Magic shot over 50 percent from deep en route to a 20 point win over the Spurs. So I gave it a look. I checked out some season splits from Orlando against the best teams in the East and West to find out if three-point shooting was really the key for this Orlando team. The results pointed to just that, and even taking into account the ever-important role of Dwight Howard in the post, the bottom line is that the Magic will need to shoot the ball, and shoot the ball well from the outside if they are going to be a factor in the playoffs this year.
It is important to understand that the East flat out plays better defense than the West based on defensive efficiency. Five of the top six defensive teams in the league are East Coast teams and the first contending West Coast team that appears on that list is San Antonio in the seventh slot. It should be no wonder that Orlando is able to dominate against the West, but struggles against the East (and they do, as we will see).
Defensive efficiency is a result of several variables, and it isn’t groundbreaking news that an East Coast team plays tougher games against other East Coast teams. Familiarity and predictability certainly come into play. The simple fact that Orlando gets more exposure to the East means that teams come more readily equipped (and fired up) to handle Dwight and company, even if that means hammering Dwight in the post. But more importantly, the Stan Van Gundy/Dwight centered offense is by now extremely familiar. There just aren’t a lot of ways to mask what you’re trying to do if you’re SVG.
The Magic, more so than most other teams, have a particular brand of basketball, making them even more predictable than others.
Just look at the figures. Against the top four teams in the East, the Magic are 5-7 and as a team, shoot the ball at a lower percentage than their season average. Against the top four teams in the West it’s a totally different story. Dwight shoots close 70 percent from the field, and three-point shooters are knocking down well over 40 percent, which, as we’ve seen before, are championship-run numbers. So there is obviously something at work here.
The compelling factor in all of this is not that the Magic struggle against defenses that are more familiar or competitive with them. What is intriguing is that a closer look at the numbers shows that there is one stat that takes a considerable hit when Orlando loses to Eastern Conference teams — three-point shooting.
Thursday’s Magic Word
- Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel: “For the first time since Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said NBA commissioner David Stern doesn’t allow free speech and compared him to oppressive world leaders, the commissioner addressed those comments on Thursday on The Herd with Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio. Stern said the comments made him sad and he intends to speak with the team’s management about getting Van Gundy’s comments under control. ‘I’m going to engage in a private discussions at this point with his franchise,’ Stern said. ‘I actually am not going to talk to Stan Van Gundy. I’m going to talk to the ownership of the team.’ Stern also implied he doesn’t intend to fine Van Gundy. ‘Because he tried to make it so personal, I’m not going to do anything about it this time,’ Stern said.”
- What’s it like being Stuff the Orlando Magic mascot?
- Gilbert Arenas is showing flashes of his old self.
- Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com takes a look at playoff tiebreaking scenarios.
- Commissioner David Stern strikes back at head coach Stan Van Gundy. Eric Freeman of Ball Don’t Lie is impressed that Van Gundy got Stern’s undivided attention: “That’s an exaggeration of the state of the Magic, of course, but that’s just how Stern operates. As Bethlehem Shoals explained in a recent piece for Tablet, Stern isn’t fully engaged if he’s not slyly ragging on people. I suppose that means Van Gundy should be honored to have the attention of the league’s top dog, even if it’s under less-than-ideal circumstances.”
- Dwyane Wade doesn’t mince words at Van Gundy either.
- Rob Mahoney of ProBasketballTalk: “If he were playing for any number of other NBA coaches, [Ryan] Anderson would likely go about his hot-shooting business undisturbed. Defense would likely be emphasized in practice and in games, but Stan Van Gundy is among the few who will repeatedly make the decision to bench productive players on the basis of defense alone. As good as Anderson is, this is the right play for the Magic and Van Gundy’s system; if Anderson can’t or won’t defend, then SVG should endeavor to find a player who will.[...] Anderson — and the same is true of Brandon Bass — needs to improve defensively if he’s to fully replace Lewis on his own rather than filling in for 20-minute bursts. More playing time may have been gifted him in other systems, but SVG knows no charity in his rotation, and every minute will need to be earned with defensive execution.”
- Players for the Magic chime in, including Sacramento native Ryan Anderson and former Kings’ player Hedo Turkoglu, on the Sacramento Kings’ current arena dilemma.
- Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie takes a look at Orlando’s win against Sacramento: “Sacramento played hard, and they gave us a fun game to wind down a crazy Wednesday night. And Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy deserves dap for letting Dwight Howard play through four fouls for most of the second half (reminded me, and he’ll hate this, of Phil Jackson). But this game came down to Sacramento’s inability to stop Orlando’s screen and roll.”








What went wrong for the Orlando Magic, Part I
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The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a two-part series — here’s Part I.
“What went wrong” is far less important right now than “what is going to happen next” for the Orlando Magic, but you cannot really answer the second question without giving a good look at the first. LeBron James’ trajectory and departure from Cleveland provides a significant blueprint for what to expect from Dwight this summer, and it does not look pretty.
I remember the 2009 season vividly. That fall I was meandering around the web, looking at preseason acquisitions and making predictions when certain names would stand out.
I raised my eyebrows when I saw the Cavs picked up Mo Williams, and then made a call to a friend of mine back home in St. Louis. Even though it had been a few weeks since the last time we caught up, the beginning of the conversation went something like this:
“Hello.”
“Uh, did you see that Cleveland got Mo Williams?”
“Oh, they did? Huh…”
“Dude, I think Lebron is going to get a ring this year.”
Obviously Mo Williams was not the reason the Cavs made a run at the Eastern Conference Finals, but here’s the point: When you have a superstar as your centerpiece, the rest becomes a chess game, and the winner of the game is the owner who can put the right pieces in place around your guy.
At that moment in the fall of 2008, I thought Dan Gilbert had done it, or at least had come close.
Since that move, Gilbert didn’t do a whole lot to improve LeBron’s situation. The Antawn Jamison pickup had moments of looking like a good move, but for the remainder of LeBron’s tenure as a Cav, Gilbert watched clumsily as LeBron kept being LeBron, kept empowering guys like Delonte West to max potential, and then fizzle out in the playoffs.
It is a sad story for Cleveland, but the demise of the Cavs and the departure of LeBron might have paved the way for guys like Dwight to have a much easier time come “decision time.”
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