Posts Tagged → Stan Van Gundy
2010-2011 Player Evaluation: Gilbert Arenas
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
| 2010-2011 regular season | Gilbert Arenas |
|---|---|
| Games Played | 49 |
| Minutes Played | 21.8 |
| adj. +/- | -5.22 |
| net +/- | -1.8 |
| statistical +/- | -1.06 |
| PER | 8.6 |
| WARP | 0.6 |
| Win Shares/48 | .008 |
J.J. Redick’s report card
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
J.J. Redick plays a solid game, a fluid game, and a game that makes us think we are missing him when he is gone. Those around the league like to say he has a “high basketball IQ.” But does he? It seems that sometimes there are players who can give you positive output in almost every statistical category, but still fail to impact the game the way you want them to.
First we have to define basketball IQ. I hear it a lot when a player makes an unexpectedly good decision, or shows in some way that he schooled himself on his opponent. Generally it means preparedness, or the ability to adapt the rhythm of the game no matter what. Moreover, it means thinking ahead, and being one step ahead of your opponent.
At first glance I would say Redick definitely has a high basketball IQ. But how does this translate to statistics? I break it down into four categories: taking smart shots, making smart passes, playing strong defense, and protecting the ball. Superstar or not, if you can keep those four areas of your game on speed dial, you will do more good than harm for your team.
As for taking smart shots, Redick obviously does not struggle with the temptation to throw up circus shots, or go off shooting fadeaway’s from deep. His shot selection is sound, as evidenced by his .589 True Shooting percentage from this season. In fact, only two Magic players have a better True Shooting percentage than Redick—Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson.
Need a current Eastern Conference Finals contender to compare that to? Kyle Korver currently has a True Shooting percentage of .572, and D-Wade is .581. So yes, Redick shoots for a high percentage, and at 17 percent usage, that is exactly what you need out of him.
Redick’s True Shooting percentage puts him among the leagues top 50 players, so he gets an A in this category.
Magic “Postseason Special” to air on Sun Sports on Monday, May 23
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Via the Orlando Magic:
The 2010-11 Orlando Magic Postseason Special will premiere on Monday, May 23 at 6 pm ET on Sun Sports. The 30-minute show, hosted by Paul Kennedy, takes a look back at the Magic’s 2010-11 campaign.
President of Basketball Operations/GM Otis Smith, Head Coach Stan Van Gundy and several Magic players help relive some of the best plays and moments from the past season, as well as discuss a variety of other topics.
Other highlights include:
- A look back at ‘10/10/10’ and the franchise’s first game in the Amway Center.
- Profile of All-NBA center Dwight Howard’s remarkable season.
- Dante Marchitelli and George Galante from ‘Magic Overtime with Dante and Galante’ recall some of the year’s stranger moments.
Examining the Orlando Magic’s offense
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Via Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post:
Given the dearth of long twos and isolation play, as well as the plentitude of threes and free-throw attempts, it’s almost as though stat geeks found room enough in their parents’ basement to design this offense. Lots of high-efficiency shots, few low-efficiency ones. That much isn’t up for debate.
At issue, though, is this team should have performed better than it did; every Magic fan, I think, would agree with me on that point. And before everyone piles on [Stan Van] Van Gundy, railing against what some folks derisively call this chuck-and-duck scheme, let’s recall an offense with the same principles ranked fourth just one year ago, and helped Orlando to win 59 games.
The principles didn’t change; the players did. Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Rashard Lewis, Mickael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat, and Jason Williams are all regulars from the 2009/10 squad who departed prior to, or during, the next season.
To me, this all indicates Van Gundy’s offensive style works when equipped with the right personnel. He’s not an offensive genius like, say, Rick Adelman, whose superstar-less Houston Rockets squad had the league’s fourth-best offense this season. Seven Rockets averaged at least two assists per game. Adelman’s offense is more of a “plug-and-play” situation, if you catch my meaning. No matter the personnel, his teams will be brilliant offensively. The same is not true of Van Gundy, whose teams stand out more for their consistently great defense than offense.
For those that want to know more about head coach Stan Van Gundy’s philosophical approaches on offense, this article is a must-read.
Also, the Orlando Magic‘s need for a great one-on-one perimeter scorer remains.
The return of Rashard Lewis?
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Via Zach McCann of the Orlando Sentinel:
Rashard Lewis’ monster contract – and, in turn, his skills – received a lot of scrutiny from Orlando Magic fans this year before the team traded him to the Washington Wizards in December.
But what would you think about Lewis playing for the Magic without the $118 million dollar contract attached to his name?
If the league institutes an amnesty clause in the new collective bargaining agreement, there’s a chance the Wizards would use it to waive Lewis and the remaining $30 million on his contract (he’s paid $21.1 million in 2011-12 and could be bought out for approximately $10 million before the 2012-13 season). Of course, the Wizards could use the clause to undo the mistake of Andray Blatche’s contract (5 years, $35.7 million agreed to before this season), but it’s unclear if the Wizards view that deal as a mistake yet.
So, if Lewis gets bought out, he’ll hit the open market and be free to sign with any NBA team. His family still lives in Orlando and he shares close friendships with many Magic players, so there’d almost certainly be interest on his end. Stan Van Gundy showed legitimate emotion when Lewis was traded and praised Lewis’ selfless attitude and work ethic, so the Magic’s coach would likely support Lewis’ return.
This is an interesting scenario to think about, to say the very least.
However, the Orlando Magic have more pressing needs and although it’s a nice story, re-signing Rashard Lewis if the possibility is there doesn’t do much to improve the team.
3-on-3 roundtable: The past, present, and future of the Orlando Magic
Photo by Handout/Getty Images
It’s May and the Orlando Magic aren’t playing basketball right now.
Weird.
The last time the Magic weren’t playing basketball in May was in 2007 when they were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the first round, which was Brian Hill’s final year as the head coach. Once head coach Stan Van Gundy arrived, Orlando became accustomed to continuing their season beyond April to the months of May and June but not this time around.
Instead, the Magic are spectators and sitting at home after losing to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.
As such, it seems appropriate to look back at what happened in the postseason for Orlando and chime in on Dwight Howard‘s future with the franchise. So without further ado, welcome to Magic Basketball’s first in-house roundtable discussion.
Credit goes to Matt Scribbins for the questions.
_______
If ifs and buts were candy and Zaza head-butts, the Magic would still be in the playoffs. What is your #1 if?
Nate Drexler: It would have been nice to see a healthy Magic team in the playoffs. If Gilbert Arenas was at 100 percent for the second half of the season, for instance, things would have played out differently. I only say it because Hibachi is a tremendous player, and the reason so many people are frustrated with his huge contract and poor play is they know what a huge impact he can have on a team. As for this season, he was dead wood. That is why my biggest “if” is having Gilbert mentally and physically peaked for the playoffs.
Danny Nowell: The biggest if, for me, is what if Hedo Turkoglu had been the same Hedo Turkoglu that propelled the 2009 run. I know, I know, it’s easy to make him a scapegoat—and it’s not like he’s getting younger, so maybe his decline is strictly about aging—but what else would the Magic have realistically been able to get that they needed? Jameer [Nelson] showed up in spurts, Dwight had an historically good series; I think the key could have been a big ball handler that was aggressive when he needed to be and a creator when he didn’t. Hedo’s play was almost the direct inverse of that.
Matt Scribbins: The Magic would still be in the playoffs if they had a legitimate option on offense besides Dwight Howard. With help from the Basketball Reference database, I learned only seven players since 1947 have made 20 or fewer shots while attempting 68+ in the playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu did just that this post-season and bricked his way into the record books. Hedo, one of the worst shooters in NBA playoff history, actually out did himself and provided his worst playoff shooting performance ever.
Dwight Howard, fourth quarters, and the truth
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
There once was a man made of brick-and-mortar,
but his role diminished in the 4th quarter.
He will be remembered as an all-time great,
but you’d never guess it from his usage rate.
Today, I stumbled upon a poem I wrote a while ago (yesterday), and it compelled me to explore Dwight Howard’s usage rate in the 4th quarter with the help of StatsCube.
Orlando’s center boasted the NBA’s 19th highest usage rate (possessions used while on floor) during the 2010-2011 regular season, but his rate plummeted in the final period of the game. Some other key statistics indicate Dwight was at his best in the 4th quarter.
Green indicates at least 10% greater than average. Red indicates at least 10% below average.
However, maybe his stats are just a classic case of a reduced usage rate coinciding with more efficient performance? Let’s explore possible explanations for why the MVP candidate’s usage rate decreased in the final frame.
Dwight struggled at the stripe
Dwight averaged 11.2 free throw attempts per 36 minutes in the regular season. In the 4th quarter, his attempts rose to 14.0 per 36 minutes, nearly twice his 1st quarter rate of 7.8.
Why did this happen? Either teams deliberately fouled Dwight late or the Magic went to him more often. Dwight’s relatively low usage rate in the 4th quarter suggests he was fouled more often by design.
The most important part of this debate is his free throw percentage in the 4th quarter. Dwight made 59.6% of his free throws during the season. In the 4th, he made 64% of his freebies, his best rate in any quarter. The big man never broke 60% in quarters 1 through 3.
In fairness, his 4th quarter rate was still a shot below those of his teammates: Hedo Turkoglu (70%), Jameer Nelson (74%), Jason Richardson (78%), and Brandon Bass (80%).
Recapping Game 6 for the Orlando Magic with Synergy
Game 6
PPP = Points Per Possession
Orlando offense
The spot-up game continued to be a key for Orlando. The Magic made 5-10 attempts on Thursday, but missed all four beyond the arc. In the regular season, Orlando averaged 1.05 PPP, which was the 5th best mark in the league. However, the Magic were held under 1.0 PPP in five of six playoff games and held under 0.5 PPP in three games.
Orlando’s ball handlers used a series low 16 possessions and provided a relatively modest performance in Game 6. They scored 0.81 PPP, which fell slightly below their elite 0.86 PPP rate in the regular season. Hedo Turkoglu didn’t do the Magic any favors in this area as he missed all five of his shot attempts. Jameer Nelson was superb and made 3-4 shots, including two driving layups and one long jumper.
I may have already mentioned this, but Orlando is dominant when they utilize roll men off the pick-and-roll. The Magic posted an absurd 1.6 PPP on Thursday. Stan Van Gundy called for the play four times in the 4th quarter and Dwight provided two dunks in his three attempts. Ryan Anderson’s three ball cut Atlanta’s lead to two with 4:40 left in the game.
The Magic isolated 13.48% of the time in Game 6, a hefty increase from their next highest percentage, 6.67%, in Game 1. Hedo made two of his three isolation three-point attempts, and his first make cut Atlanta’s lead to one in the 2nd half.
The post-up game recorded the lowest PPP of the series in Game 6. Dwight made three of eight shots and Brandon Bass missed his only attempt to leave Orlando with 0.5 PPP.
Jason Richardson propelled the offense to 1.17 PPP running off screens. He scored Orlando’s first bucket of the game after running off a screen set by Dwight Howard. Obviously, J.J. Redick missed a crucial three-point attempt after using a Howard screen at the end of the game.
Orlando defense
Atlanta used nearly 1/5 of their possessions in isolation and didn’t have much to show for it. They scored 0.47 PPP, by far their lowest rate of the series. The Hawks only made 22.2% of their isolation shots (4-18). Naturally, Joe Johnson was the main offender and made three of his 12 attempts.
The Hawks are not a running team and didn’t turn into one on Thursday. Nonetheless, they were effective when they did. On seven possessions, Atlanta posted 1.14 PPP and it was the only time in the series they exceeded 1.00 PPP.
Orlando put the clamps on Atlana’s post-up game in Game 6, and the Hawks scored a paltry 0.57 PPP. Al Horford and Josh Smith combined to shoot 1-7 in these situations.
The spot-up shooting for Atlanta maintained a scintillating rate. The Hawks 11th ranked unit made mincemeat of Orlando’s 5th ranked spot-up defense throughout the entire series, and the final game was no different. The Hawks shot 10-22 overall and made seven of their 14 attempts from downtown. Orlando held opponents to 0.94 PPP in spot-up situations during the regular season, but the Hawks scored 1.04+ in five of six playoff contests.
Second Look: Atlanta Hawks 84, Orlando Magic 81
AP Photo/John Amis
- Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “The Orlando Magic face a long, uncertain offseason. Those months off will be filled with questions about how a season that started with such promise ended with such overwhelming disappointment. A team that advanced to the NBA Finals in 2009 and reached the Eastern Conference finals in 2010 didn’t go beyond the first round this year. This postseason ended Thursday night after the Magic fell 84-81 in Game 6 of their opening-round series to the Atlanta Hawks. [...] The series concluded, appropriately enough, on a pair of misfired 3-pointers. J.J. Redick missed a wide-open shot that would’ve tied the game with 3.9 seconds remaining — a shot he’d likely sink eight out of 10 times inside Amway Center’s gym. [...] The Magic had another chance to tie the score after Atlanta’s Al Horford collected the loose ball and stepped on the baseline with 1.8 seconds left. But Jason Richardson, playing on an injured left heel, put up a desperation heave that Hawks forward Josh Smith blocked easily. The final play set off a wild celebration inside Philips Arena, the same place where the Magic completed a second-round sweep of the Hawks last year.”
- Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel: “The road of regression is complete. The Magic have come to a devastatingly depressing dead end. From NBA Finals two years ago to first-round losers Thursday night. They used to run with Lakers and Celtics; now they can’t even hang with the Hawks. So where do they go now after this devastating 84-81 season-ending loss to Atlanta? Where do they go now that they have become lost on this highway to nothingness? Team CEO Bob Vander Weide has already said nobody is getting fired and that he is happy with general manager Otis Smith and coach Stan Van Gundy. But as Van Gundy said before tipoff Thursday night, ‘Those votes of confidence are usually the kiss of death in this game.’ Of course, Van Gundy was joking even though this is not a joking matter. We are, after all, only talking about the future of the franchise here. And since it appears nobody else will take the fall, I guess I will. If Vander Weide needs a scapegoat, I’ll take the blame. I’ll volunteer to be fired – as long as I get Van Gundy’s $8 million buyout. It was me, after all, who provided the Hawks their fuel and fire heading into Game 6.”
- John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com: “In a cruel, twisted sort of way, it was only fitting Thursday night that the biggest play of a game that ultimately ended the Orlando Magic’s season came down to an offensive rebound. As had been the case all night long, Atlanta got the rebound and the Magic didn’t. And because the Magic struggled on the boards early in the game and again at the end, their season abruptly ended in the first round – well short of the stated goal of winning a championship. When the Magic couldn’t corral an offensive rebound with 10 seconds to play in a one-point game, they were forced to foul Jamal Crawford, who buried two free throws. Orlando was left with a clear 3-point look by J.J. Redick to tie, but when the shot hit off the back iron, the stunned Magic were left to contemplate an 84-81 Game 6 defeat and a 4-2 loss in the series to the rival Hawks.”
- Evan Dunlap of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “The Atlanta Hawks ended the Orlando Magic’s season Thursday night with an 84-81 victory in Game Six of their playoff series, and for the first time in four seasons, the Magic failed to advance to the second round of the playoffs. Joe Johnson scored 23 for Atlanta, while Jamal Crawford added 19, but their combined 16-of-41 shooting attests to the fact that the Hawks took this game for reasons apart from their offense. Indeed, the Hawks–the league’s second-worst offensive rebounding team in the regular season–snared 36.8 percent of their own misses Thursday night against a Magic team which led the league in defensive rebounding. As a result of the offensive boards and frequent misses, the Hawks finished the game with 12 more field-goal attempts than the Magic, which may have been the difference in a three-point game.”
- Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “They’d been the better team through four games, and then they lost Game 5 and folks started talking about how lousy they were. An Orlando Sentinel columnist called them the Birdbrains, which sounded a bit strange: If the Hawks were such plods, why were they still leading? The same scribe predicted the Magic, having won one game in a row, would outsmart the Hawks and win the series. And maybe if this were “Jeopardy” they would have. But this is basketball, and at last check MIT hasn’t been to the Final Four lately. And Orlando won’t be going to Round 2 of these NBA playoffs. The Atlanta Birdbrains will.”
- Bret LaGree of Hoopinion: “The Atlanta Hawks took control of this game in the first quarter on the strength of the defense played by Jason Collins and Kirk Hinrich. Without the play of those two without the ball in their hands, Jamal Crawford and Marvin Williams don’t get a chance to make the jump shots that clinched the game for the Hawks (to the extent that Orlando missing open jump shots didn’t clinch the game for the Hawks). Hinrich didn’t just stifle Jameer Nelson when given the chance to play. He, in the first quarter, dug down very effectively on Howard (as Collins used his bulk to hold him up) and salvaged points from more than one sluggard and potentially empty Atlanta possession. {…] To Larry Drew’s credit, he came up with an effective game plan to defend the Magic over 10 matchups this season. That’s a huge step forward from the 2010 playoffs even if he didn’t always stick with said plan. It turns out that a fixation on Dwight Howard had real, tangible value for the 2010-11 Atlanta Hawks.”
What went wrong for the Orlando Magic, Part II
Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images
The rise and fall of the Orlando Magic as an elite team and championship contender will be examined by Magic Basketball in a two-part series — here’s Part II.
As the Magic continue to face their uncertain near-future, I’m thinking about something I imagine a lot of us are: John Milton. Specifically, I’m thinking about Paradise Lost, his account of Adam and Eve’s expulsion from Eden. It seems to me that Magic nation probably feels how Adam and Eve did shortly after God exposed the whole apple/fig leaf-clothing fiasco: “We had it all, and we blew it somehow, and now we need to figure out who to blame. Also, I hate snakes.” Yeah, verily, fellow Magic watchers, we have dined on the ambrosia of celestial basketball, have stared lovingly into the pond at our reflections as Eve did, contemplating how nice it was to be a perennial contender. And now we must make our way into the less hospitable basketball wilderness, to try and figure out how to reclaim that divinity.
There is a strain of criticism in Paradise Lost readers that says that Adam and Eve did us all a solid by getting kicked out of Eden–their screw-up, basically, gave us life as we know it. It’s a pleasant take on the notion of original sin, usually called the fortunate fall. By sinning their way out of Eden, Adam and Eve became people, and exposed the rest of the race to all the goods and bads that come with the territory. For the Magic, our fortunate fall was Rashard Lewis.
You remember that sign-and-trade. The Magic were getting a 27-year-old inside/outside player, the Sonics’ career leader in three-pointers, a player who had scored more than 20 points per game for three straight seasons and was coming of a career high in that department. Of the trade, Stan Van Gundy said, ”It really makes our roster very, very good. And even more than that, what this says to me and what our organization has done with Rashard shows me and should show everyone out there how committed this organization is to winning and winning a championship.”
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