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Posts Tagged ‘Udonis Haslem’

Linking the NCAA Tournament and the NBA together, Part II

March 22, 2011 at 7:00 am No comments

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

Part I of this mini-series looked at the draft position of players who have recently appeared in the NCAA National Finals. Today, we will look at the teams who pursued these players, and how these players performed in the NBA. Tomorrow, Part III will explore two different one-and-done scenarios, and the NCAA Tournament history of players on top NBA teams. We will also see the “good ol’ days” are aptly named.

Winnersville, U.S.A.
Say what you want about the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they are a bunch of winners (at least on draft night). Since 2005, four of Minnesota’s eleven first round picks have played on NCAA Championship teams. They also picked champions in the second round, netting Mario Chalmers and Chris Richard. These players have not helped Minnesota become a #winning team so far. Actually, Wayne Ellington is the only player among the six still with the Wolves. Two different luminaries, Kevin McHale and David Kahn, have made draft picks for the team during this time.

Ironically, Jerry Sloan and the Utah Jazz welcomed three members of the runner-up 2005 Illinois team to town. They used the third overall pick of the 2005 draft on Deron Williams, and he eventually assisted Sloan’s exit from Salt Lake City. They drafted Dee Brown in the second round of 2006, and Roger Powell signed with the Jazz after his Illinois career.

The Bulls ended up with three members of the 2001 Duke team at various stages of their careers. They drafted Jay Williams second overall in 2002. Two years later, they used a second round pick on Chris Duhon. In the summer of 2010, their decision was signing Carlos Boozer to a five year contract. In total, the Bulls have had eight players from the last eleven champions wear their jersey (Williams, Duhon, Boozer, Joakim Noah, Hakim Warrick, Lonny Baxter, Chris Richard, Ben Gordon).

Five teams (Dallas, San Antonio, Boston, Sacramento, Phoenix) haven’t selected a player who appeared in the National Finals since the turn of the century. It is worth pointing out some of these teams are major players in basketball analytics.

The dichotomy between the Timberwolves draft results and some of the analytical squads’ results leads to an obvious question: do the more analytical teams ignore winners, while teams like Minnesota think winners will bring them out of the basement?

We at least know the Mavericks philosophy. I e-mailed Mavericks owner Mark Cuban yesterday and asked him why his team hasn’t drafted a player from the National Finals since he took over. He just chalked it up to happenstance. He went on to say it is “not intentional at all. We don’t care who they play for.”

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Interview with Surya Fernandez of NBA FanHouse

February 3, 2011 at 12:00 pm 2 comments

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Later tonight, the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat will square off in a game that has a chance to be special. Or not. Right now, the Magic are a team struggling to right the ship.

Brandon Bass, the starting power forward for Orlando, is sidelined for the foreseeable future and the defense — predictably so — has fallen off a cliff quite a bit, even though head coach Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard oversee a unit that ranks fourth in defensive efficiency.

The Magic’s perimeter defense has been dreadful, at times, and when Howard is sitting on the bench, opponents have been more than happy to attack the basket because they know the big fella isn’t there to stop them. Ryan Anderson and, before his injury, Bass aren’t intimidating presences in the paint. This is an issue that needs to be resolved.

Not only that but after a hot start, Hedo Turkoglu has begun to slow down and he’s one of the reasons that Orlando has lost their way in recent weeks. During the Magic’s nine-game winning streak, Turkoglu was playing good-to-great basketball but recently, he’s been little better than average. If Jameer Nelson is seen as the heart of Orlando, then Turkoglu is the soul.

And right now, the Magic have been soulless lately.

The bright side is that Orlando still has time to fix their problems. A win against the Heat would be a good start, even if the Magic will have some troubles since they’ll be without the services of Bass.

To preview tonight’s proceedings, Surya Fernandez (writer at Hot Hot Hoops and contributor at NBA FanHouse) was kind enough to give his perspective on the latest happenings in Miami.

Fernandez provided his opinion where Udonis Haslem fits in with the Heat in crunch-time when he returns from injury, head coach Erik Spoelstra’s ability to get the most out of his players, and more.

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It’s a trick question, of sorts, but who’s more valuable to the Miami Heat — LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, or Chris Bosh?

With the way the roster has been constructed, the Heat need steady contributions from all three to win. Yes, they’ve shown they can sometimes win when one or even two are out but if the Heat want to make a deep run in the playoffs all three must be healthy and at the top of their games, period. So it’s almost impossible to identify which of the three is the most valuable. Admittedly the Heat looked positively lost on offense when Bosh was recently out. Wade and LeBron can somewhat duplicate what each other can bring to the offense but their defensive contributions in tandem are also critical to team success. Wade is the sentimental favorite but if push comes to shove and I have to pick one of them, I’d go with LeBron by a hair because of his versatility.

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Role reversal between two rivals

February 2, 2011 at 7:00 am No comments

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

When the Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat on November 24 by the score of 104-95 in front of a nationally televised audience and sold-out crowd at the Amway Center, these were two teams heading in different directions.

The win sparked a six game-winning streak for the Magic, which eventually pulled their record to 15-4 before the wheels fell off the wagon and general manager Otis Smith was forced to make two blockbuster trades on December 18 that brought Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu to Orlando. The loss put the Heat at 8-7, everyone was questioning how long head coach Erik Spoelstra was going to last on the sidelines, but a funny thing happened. Miami persevered. The Heat would win 22 of their next 24 games and in that stretch, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh began to mesh together. Injuries incurred by James, Wade, and Bosh have slowed down Miami a little bit in recent weeks. However, right now, the Heat are 34-14 and operating near full-strength — only Udonis Haslem is missing in action due to injury.

As for the Magic? Problems abound.

At first, the trades injected new life into Orlando’s roster and they were able to real off nine consecutive wins, which tied a franchise-record. Unfortunately for the Magic, they’re beginning to lose their way again. Recent losses to the Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, and Memphis Grizzlies have revealed fatal flaws that have head coach Stan Van Gundy declaring that Orlando is not ready to contend unless they commit themselves fully to the defensive end. It’s safe to say that the roles are reversed when the Magic and Heat do battle once again on Thursday.

This time, Orlando is the vulnerable team and Miami appears ready to take advantage. Perimeter defense, as well as an interior presence defensively when Dwight Howard is out of the game, are holes that the Heat are more than ready to exploit with a three-pronged attack of James, Wade, and Bosh. Must-win games mean nothing to Van Gundy — someone notorious for dismissing the notion by saying that unless it’s worth two wins, it has no greater ramification than any other game.

That being said, even if Van Gundy believes it or not, the Magic are dealing with a must-win situation against the Heat.

Why?

Because it’s becoming harder to label Orlando as an elite team and championship contender, given that they’re dealing with issues that can be easily exploited by the likes of Miami, the Boston Celtics, and others. Howard may be in line to win his third straight Defensive Player of the Year award, but his capabilities defensively have been stretched far too thin and the Magic are paying for it.

Also, the perimeter attack for Orlando has short-circuited lately, with Arenas, Nelson, Richardson, and Turkoglu unable to play with any sort of consistency on offense. Many of the issues for the Magic are fixable, but it’s no guarantee they’ll be fixed.

A win for Orlando could quiet the dissenters in the short-term, providing a ray of hope that they can right the ship in time for the 2011 NBA Playoffs. Or a loss to the Heat, especially if it’s a convincing one, will only further discourage the Magic as they trek towards the postseason.

It’s Not All About Dwight Howard

November 24, 2010 at 12:00 pm 3 comments

Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images

As seen on The Heat Index.

Before the Orlando Magic faced off against the Miami Heat on October 29, the conversation surrounding the matchup centered on Dwight Howard‘s ability to exploit the Heat’s front line. Nearly everyone said, “Who is going to stop him?”

Yet few bothered to ask how the Magic would score on the perimeter against LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, two of the best wing defenders in the NBA.

In the first half of their initial meeting in Miami’s regular season home opener, Orlando got a lot of production from Howard but little else from the likes of Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter and others. Howard was dominant in the first two quarters. He executed to near perfection on the low block and displayed an array of lefty and righty hooks, spin moves and jump shots.

Unfortunately for the Magic, Howard was a one-man show because head coach Erik Spoelstra elected not to double-team the big fella in the low post and instead concentrated on stopping the perimeter attack.

Let Howard get his, and stop everyone else on the Magic’s roster.

It’s a strategy similar to the one Boston Celtics employed to beat Orlando in the 2010 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. In this case, Wade shut down Carter while James acted as a rover on defense, using his elite athleticism to make it nearly impossible for Orlando shooters to get clean looks from the perimeter.

The strategy worked, as the Heat were able to pull away from the Magic in the third quarter thanks to a barrage of shots from James and Wade. The Magic posted their worst offensive night in more than two years as they fell 96-70 in Miami.

What can Orlando do differently this time around?

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Interview with Michael Wallace of The Heat Index

November 24, 2010 at 9:30 am No comments

Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

On October 29, the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat faced off in one of the most highly anticipated regular season games in NBA history. After a first half in which the Magic and Heat traded blows like a pair of heavyweights, things changed quickly at the onset of the third quarter. Miami tightened up their defense, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade caught fire from the perimeter, and — in the blink of an eye — an intense game between two rivals turned into a rout.

So much for a matchup living up to the hype. That was nearly a month ago.

My, how things have changed.

After a triumphant victory against the Magic, the Heat have looked mortal and are struggling with an 8-6 record. Injuries have taken their toll on Miami, sure, but this is a roster that looks lifeless and zombie-like. And with each loss, the shadow of president Pat Riley looms larger over head coach Erik Spoelstra. Cue Michael Corleone’s infamous quote from Godfather Part III.

So to preview the inner happenings of the Heat, I gathered the intelligent observations of Michael Wallace of the Heat Index. Formerly of the Miami Herald, Wallace has covered Miami for five seasons and knows what the deal is.

Wallace provides his opinion on Spoelstra’s future, the impact of the Heat losing Udonis Haslem for (possibly) the rest of the season, and more.

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On Twitter, you said that the Miami Heat’s loss to the Indiana Pacers on Monday was the worst loss you’ve seen in the five years you’ve covered the team. What was it about the game that made you feel that way?

When you weigh the talent level and expectations against the effort and performance the Heat played with against the Pacers, the disparity between those two sides was never greater in any of the games I’ve covered on this beat. That’s no knock against Indiana. But the Heat didn’t defend, didn’t play with passion, didn’t execute anything resembling offensive structure and really didn’t seem to take the loss as seriously, based on their postgame comments, as they probably should. Getting blown out at home by the Pacers simply isn’t acceptable for this team. Or, at least, it shouldn’t be.

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Sneak Preview: Miami Heat at Orlando Magic

November 24, 2010 at 7:00 am 1 comment

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

  • Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: “Surprise, ahem, is in the voice of the Heat these days. Now that their force field of arrogance has been shattered, the Heat wobble into Amway Center at a ho-hum 8-6, misfiring on offense and missing some spare parts (Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller). All their woes place a ton of pressure on the 9-4 Magic tonight for Orlando-Miami II. What do you make of the [Orlando] Magic if they can’t beat the reeling, luke-warm Heat and square the series? [...] The Magic said that the Spurs game was a measuring stick. If that was a barometer, isn’t the Miami rematch, especially after Orlando was embarrassed Oct. 29 in South Florida? Absolutely. If the Heat aren’t vulnerable now, then when? At least against the Spurs, the Magic played well until the final minutes when they kicked the ball around. They could leave Texas feeling upbeat. It’s no wonder [Jameer] Nelson and teammates have nightmares of their 96-70 loss to the Heat, visions of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh shutting them down in mismatches. They left Miami’s building feeling deflated, not only wondering if all the hype about this South Florida steamroller was warranted but whether they’d stand a chance at playoff time. Other teams have poked holes in the Heat hysteria since then. The Magic need to join them, particularly since they are playing at home. Magic-Heat II is the biggest game yet at new, cavernous Amway Center. I haven’t been overwhelmed by the home-court atmosphere. Time to break it in proper.”
  • Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: “Vince Carter received some welcome news on the injury front Tuesday. An MRI on his injured left knee revealed no significant structural damage, an Orlando Magic spokesman said. Carter might play when the Magic host the Miami Heat on Wednesday. He will be a gametime decision. The 33-year-old shooting guard sustained the injury Monday, midway through the fourth quarter of the Magic’s 106-97 loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Carter made a gorgeous spin move and converted a layup on the play, but he landed awkwardly on his left foot. He didn’t return to the game.”
  • Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel: “The Heat has consecutive losses to Memphis and Indiana. It’s Spoelstra now on the [Stan] Van Gundy Hot Seat. And Spoelstra knows the rules. He’s a big boy and a good coach, no matter what anyone says today. But you don’t get handed the keys to a team like this without the wild expectations that come with it. Of course, that previous sentence is part of the dilemma itself. This team has significant holes, especially with Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller on the shelf. At the crux of the question Jackson raises is this: Do superstars in the NBA, the most diva of sports leagues, need to be coached by superstars? That’s why Jackson was brought to Los Angeles with Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal. It’s also why Van Gundy got run out of Miami by his own players, mainly Shaq, even if modern legend claims it all Riley’s doing. Since this pertains to the Heat’s current situation, let’s take a quick history lesson. Shaq was upset Van Gundy kept running plays for an injured Dwyane Wade in Game 7 of the previous spring’s Eastern Conference Finals. Wade had nothing left by the fourth quarter. Plays kept going to him. Detroit won. Shaq decided, then and there, he was done with Van Gundy.”
  • Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel: “Erick Dampier is in, Jerry Stackhouse is out, and Udonis Haslem may be gone for the season. In the wake of one of the franchise’s ugliest losses in years, Monday’s 93-77 setback to the visiting Indiana Pacers, the Miami Heat quickly found their focus turned to personnel issues at Tuesday’s practice at AmericanAirlines Arena. On the practice court, Dampier, the veteran center, was working with coaches on the team’s playbook, after signing a one-year contract at the veteran minimum. Gone from the scene was Stackhouse, with the Heat electing to release the veteran shooting guard, rather than one of the four centers already on the roster. [...] Although the team would not confirm the extent of Haslem’s injury other than to say he would be out indefinitely, a source familiar with the procedure said it is a season-ending injury for most players. The source said the opinion had nothing to do with the possibility of the Heat seeking salary-cap relief for a replacement, which only would come if Haslem was deemed sidelined for the season by Nov. 30.”
  • Israel Gutierrez of the Miami Herald: “One day after a numbing home loss to the Pacers temporarily shattered the Heat, the theme for Tuesday’s practice was reconnecting. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra wanted his team to rediscover the elements that would make the team successful — none of which showed up during Miami’s 16-point loss Monday. One of those key elements, though, won’t be reconnecting anytime soon. Possibly not for the rest of the regular season. Udonis Haslem had surgery Tuesday to repair a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot. The procedure was called a success, but the typical recovery period for that type of surgery is at least four months. If that were the case for Haslem, it would keep him out until at least late March. In Haslem’s absence, the Heat signed center Erick Dampier, a 14-year veteran, and waived Jerry Stackhouse.”
  • Michelle Kaufman of the Miami Herald: “If three of the biggest NBA stars aren’t enough to get Heat fans in their seats on time, maybe $2 off a hotdog, and a gentle scolding by team management will do the trick. Or, maybe not. In most NBA cities, the prospect of seeing Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh on the floor together would be enough to have fans captivated by tipoff. But this is Miami, where socializing and showing up fashionably late is as much a part of the culture as ignoring stop signs. Heat management — tired of seeing thousands of empty seats at the start of game broadcasts — recently launched a “Fan Up” campaign in an attempt to get fans to be more punctual and spirited. That could prove more difficult than winning another NBA title. They may have to lock the arena doors at tipoff to get fans in on time.”
  • Kevin Arnovitz and Tom Haberstroh of The Heat Index: “A season ago, the Orlando Magic were the proud owners of the league’s second best offense in the league but it’s slid 6.1 points per 100 possessions since then. What’s the problem? Magic point guards have been uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball. That’s especially true for newcomer Chris Duhon whose turnover rate so far in a Magic uniform has doubled his career norm. Jameer Nelson and Duhon combined for 5 turnovers in the Oct. 29 matchup. The Heat should be licking their chops since the transition game is the only thing that seems to be working offensively and turnovers award them those opportunities. Additionally, if the Heat seek to disarm Dwight Howard defensively, causing turnovers and jumping out in transition will be their best option.”
  • Brian Windhorst of The Heat Index: “LeBron James will be the first member of the Miami Heat introduced in the starting lineup on Wednesday night at Amway Center. The Magic home crowd, like every other crowd outside Miami this season, will likely boo him. And then when James touches the ball early in the game there will probably be more boos. The boos will follow James as he travels the league this season, whether he’s checking in at the scorer’s table or walking to the foul line. The volume might vary based on region, the competitiveness of the game or general level of interest, but the pattern figures to be consistent. This is the new norm for James and one of the many things he admits he’s adjusting to as a member of the targeted Heat. James admitted last week after another night of routine boos in Memphis that he’s been perplexed by some of the grief he’s received on the road this season.”
  • Michael Wallace of The Heat Index: “Erick Dampier should have been signed two months ago when he first met with Pat Riley and Erick Spoelstra before the Miami Heat’s training camp. But that doesn’t mean his arrival Tuesday in advance of Wednesday’s clash with Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic didn’t come right on time. The Heat are hurting right now, both figuratively and literally. The pain of their disappointing 8-6 start to the season has been compounded by the the loss of their leading rebounder, co-captain and resident tough guy, Udonis Haslem, for what might be the duration of the season. On the same day Haslem had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left foot, the Heat tried to regain their balance by signing Dampier to help fill their rebounding void and need for another big man with some semblance of a mean streak to bang inside.”

Recap: Miami Heat 96, Orlando Magic 70

October 30, 2010 at 3:22 pm 16 comments

Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images

BOX SCORE

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

After months of the Orlando Magic yapping away and tossing verbal grenades towards the Miami Heat in the offseason, it shouldn’t be too surprising that they got what was coming to them last night. In their regular season home opener in front of a nationally televised audience and a sellout crowd draped in black, the Heat were able to defeat the Magic by the score of 96-70. Dwyane Wade killed Orlando, as he always has in the past, putting up 26 points, six rebounds, and two blocks. LeBron James was the maestro of the destruction, finishing with 15 points, six rebounds, and seven assists. Chris Bosh chipped in with 11 points and 10 rebounds. And the Heat got excellent contributions from the bench. For the Magic, there were only two players that had a pulse when the game mattered — Dwight Howard and Brandon Bass. Howard had 19 points and seven rebounds while dominating in the first half on offense like he never has before. Bass had nine points, six rebounds, but most importantly, he played with excellent energy and effort (one of the few to do that last night) on the defensive side of the ball. It seemed like only Howard and Bass were the players on the Orlando roster that were prepared for Miami’s fury.

The first half of yesterday’s game between the Magic and Heat was everything that people envisioned. It was physical. It was defensive-minded. It was bloody.

When J.J. Redick got popped in the face (below the eye, to be specific) by a James’ elbow as he took a charge and had to get stitches in the locker room to quell the bleeding, he unintentionally served as the sacrificial lamb to christen the rivalry.

It was on.

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Wednesday’s Magic Word

September 1, 2010 at 7:15 pm 2 comments

  • Ben Q. Rock of Orlando Pinstriped Post: “The [Orlando] Magic/Heat rivalry has proven fairly one-sided in Orlando’s favor since 2007, but the Heat’s appearance has more to do with their future roster than the one that’s struggled against Orlando in the recent past. Indeed, among the 18 players the Heat have under contract, only Joel Anthony, Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, Jamaal Magloire, and Dwyane Wade have suited up as members of the Heat against Orlando. But in adding LeBron James this summer, Miami has certainly vaulted itself into championship contention, and made its relationship with the Magic more interesting. James’ incredible showing in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals wasn’t enough to get his Cavaliers over the hump against the Magic, but it did establish him as an individual rival of Orlando’s. And it’s valid to compare him to [Dwight] Howard, insofar as they’re both among the best players in the league who entered it just one year apart.”
  • Dan Savage and Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com review Vince Carter‘s restaurant in Daytona Beach. Two thumbs up.
  • Grade the Orlando Magic’s off-season.
  • Dwight Howard: “How’s ya’ll’s summer going? Mine has been crazy traveling all over the world. I just got back last week from going to India for the NBA and China to shoot a new movie with my man, Carmelo Anthony. I know there has been a lot of talk about Melo getting traded this summer, but trust me ya’ll, we were just shooting a movie together and didn’t even talk ball that much. The movie is called, “Amazing” and will be out next summer, so I hope you guys can check it out!!!”
  • Howard is also raising money for the earthquake relief efforts in Haiti.

Dwight Howard’s Thoughts on the Miami Heat

August 2, 2010 at 12:00 pm 2 comments

Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

Via Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Dwight Howard was back in his hometown Friday, thrilling a group of kids from the Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Atlanta who had no idea the Orlando Magic star and Atlanta native was coming for lunch. But before he took questions, he had one request.

“Please, no questions about the Miami Heat,” he said. “I was just over in China for two weeks and that’s all I heard: ‘What do you think about LeBron?’”

Nonetheless, Howard granted this corner of the blogosphere a few minutes to discuss a few items of interest to Atlanta fans: The Heat, the Hawks and Shaquille O’Neal. [...]

On fans conceding the Eastern Conference to the Heat, following the free agent signings of James and Chris Bosh and the re-signing of Dwyane Wade: “We don’t think about it like that. They’ve still got to play games. It looks good on paper. It looks good playing a video game. But this is real life. We’re looking forward to playing them. They’re going to be a real good team but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win a championship.”

A little late with this one.

The purpose of this post isn’t to provide commentary on Dwight Howard’s comments, but instead expand upon his thoughts on the Miami Heat and their potential as a team next season. The games won’t start until late October, when the 2010-2011 NBA regular season gets underway, but that hasn’t stopped a number of statisticians from crunching the numbers and coming up with various projections for how the Heat may fare. Despite the inherent differences in the systems, adjusted plus/minus, statistical plus/minus, PER, and WARP come to similar conclusions.

Miami is going to be good.

Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference, using statistical plus/minus:

Like Hollinger, we’ll be conservative with the expected values next season… Let’s give LeBron a +11 (which would be his lowest since 2006-07), Wade a +8 (basically what he did in 2006), and Bosh +3 (a little less than his mark from 2009). Also, we’ll use -3 as our replacement-player value, so we’ve got 3,100 minutes of James at +11, 2,850 minutes of Wade at +8, 2,600 minutes of Bosh at +3, and 11,130 minutes of -3 replacement-level ballers. How many games would that team win?

Doing the math, that allocation of minutes works out to a projected +7.95 efficiency differential. Wanna know which team had at least a +7.95 differential last season? Only one: the Orlando Magic, who were +8.12. Traditionally, a +7.95 differential buys you 61 wins, which is actually exactly what Hollinger came up with. So in the absolute worst case, the Heat win 61 games next season with their Big Three, and are the best team in the East, if not the league. And what if they merely play at last year’s levels?

Expect a +10.6 differential, which equals 68 wins.

… and adjusted plus/minus:

APM paints an even rosier picture for the “Holy Trinity” (or whatever we’re going to call them)… Last year, James had a +18.52 rating, 2nd only to Dwight Howard, and Wade was 4th with +16.09, while Bosh had “only” a +6.97 rating. Mark them down for even +10, +6, and +5, respectively (their 5-year low-water marks when healthy), and with Hollinger’s expected minutes this team would have a +7.0 differential, good for 59 wins. And remember, that’s if they are as bad as they’ve been in 5 years, surrounded by nothing by the cream of the NBDL’s crop.

If they play like they did last year, the Heat’s differential would be a monstrous, Redeem Team-esque +21.2, which I can’t even give a wins estimate for because it breaks the linear equation that relates efficiency differential to winning % (it would have them winning more than 100% of their games). No team has ever had that kind of performance in the history if the NBA, meaning there is a pretty decent chance they’d obliterate the ’96 Bulls’ record for most wins in a season.

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Thursday’s Magic Word

June 17, 2010 at 5:00 pm No comments

  • George Diaz of the Orlando Sentinel: “Here’s another guy to scratch off the Orlando Magic wish list: Dwyane Wade. He’s staying in Miami. It’s always hard to read the tea leaves when dealing with pampered egos who want more and more and more, but D-Wade seems genuinely engaged in South Florida. Here’s what Miami Heat teammate Udonis Haslem said recently: “I don’t know what he’s thinking but I would hope he would stay in Miami. “And I think he will.” Wade is said to be lobbying with some of his high profile friends and free agents to get them to sign with the Miami Heat to make a championship run.”
  • Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com reminisces on the NBA Draft and WWE Royal Rumble: “[...] the NBA Draft and Royal Rumble share a distinct relationship when it comes to looking ahead to the future. Much of the time, like it was for the Orlando Magic in 1992 and 2004 when they drafted Shaquille O’Neal and Dwight Howard in each of those years with the first overall pick, the draft has a large influence in determining which NBA franchises will be championship contenders over the next decade. In WWE, the winner of the Royal Rumble gets an automatic shot at the title at WrestleMania. As a result, each event allows us to familiarize ourselves will eventual contenders. I love this concept. I adore the architecture of sports entertainment. It’s why everyone is so obsessed with this summer’s free agency. Everyone craves the thought of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or any of the other marquee free agents playing for their team.”
  • For those that are complaining about the new Orlando Magic logo, here’s a list of logos that are worse. Props to the Orlando Sentinel for the compilation.
  • Ben Q. Rock examines the trade assets that general manager Otis Smith has at his disposal and accurately explains the ever-confusing nature of the trade exception: “To be clear, a trade exception can’t be combined with another salary for matching purposes; the Magic can’t deal [Brandon] Bass (at $4 million) and the exception (at $6.864 million) for a player making $10.864 million. No, as Smith likes to say, ‘you don’t trade exceptions; you fill them.’ Exceptions allow teams to absorb salaries less than or equal to their value. The Magic can thus fill their exception with a player making roughly the mid-level without giving up anything for that player. Of course, they still have to pay his salary and the corresponding luxury tax hit, but purely from a roster standpoint (and not from a financial one), it’s getting something for nothing. The question Smith has to ask when it comes to using the exception is, ‘Is this player, who will still cost my ownership money, going to put us over the top?’ ”
  • Is Dwight Howard like the character ‘Kevin’ in the film “Up”?
  • Fox Sports Florida provides a preview of their Magic Postseason TV Special.